NCAA Tournament 2023 Thread

#153      
fair enough .......being a Bulls fan you might like the fact that I knew Jerry Sloan and he played as tough in family reunion games as he did at Evansville and in the NBA.............

I don't come here to get any STATUS ....just wanted to be very clear on that.......I come here to have some fun with my friends and usually i do .....It helps me keep my sanity and discuss what i love the most .....sports in general and BB , MLB , FB and hockey the best .......

I'm done.....I stated my opinions , you stated yours.......case closed.....................HAGD..................
I'm glad to see that you both agree to disagree....I really, really am.....too many people in this world today believe that disagreeing is always a bad thing....that it's either my way of thinking or you're dissing my line of thought or life style...disagreement is what strengthens us as a nation and culture ....refusing to examine someone else's reasoning is being closed mined....not saying you should accept it....but at least examine it....GO Illini !!! Beat them HOGS ! :hailtotheorange:
 
#154      

Illini92and96

Austin, TX
I think the simplified version of what you suggested is the one I put forth ... and I do have that. Using that, these are the Big Ten results. For simplicity's sake, I counted vacated Tournament appearances, and these are obviously pre-2023:

< School: # Appearances (# Exceeding - # Meeting - # Underperforming) >

Michigan State: 31 Total (10 - 14 - 7)
Purdue: 28 Total (5 - 9 - 14)
Indiana: 26 Total (5 - 12 - 9)
Illinois: 24 Total (2 - 11 - 11)
Wisconsin: 24 Total (8 - 9 - 7)
Michigan: 23 Total (8 - 7 - 8)
Maryland: 22 Total (7 - 6 - 9)
Ohio State: 22 Total (6 - 5 - 11)
Iowa: 20 Total (3 - 12 - 5)
Minnesota: 12 Total (4 - 7 - 1)
Nebraska: 7 Total (0 - 5 - 2) ... worth noting they've never won a game!
Penn State: 4 Total (2 - 1 - 1)
Rutgers: 4 Total (1 - 3 - 0)
Northwestern: 1 Total (0 - 1 - 0)

So the only program who's "disappointed" with high seeds as often as we have is Ohio State, but they have made up for it with three times as many years "exceeding expectations." Pretty depressing, lol ... but hey, doesn't this mean we are due?! Seriously, for as many good teams as we have had over the years, we are SERIOUSLY due to make an unexpected run.

ILLINI RESULTS
Exceeded Seed Expectations
2005:
#1 seed losing in the National Championship Game
2004: #5 seed losing in the Sweet Sixteen

Met Seed Expectations
2013:
#7 seed losing in the Second Round
2011: #9 seed losing in the Second Round
2007: #12 seed losing in the First Round
2002: #4 seed losing in the Sweet Sixteen
1998: #5 seed losing in the Second Round
1997: #6 seed losing in the Second Round
1995: #11 seed losing in the First Round
1994: #8 seed losing in the First Round
1993: #6 seed losing in the Second Round
1989: #1 seed losing in the Final Four
1985: #3 seed losing in the Sweet Sixteen

Underperformed Seed Expectations
2022:
#4 seed losing in the Second Round
2021: #1 seed losing in the Second Round
2009: #5 seed losing in the First Round
2006: #4 seed losing in the Second Round
2003: #4 seed losing in the Second Round
2001: #1 seed losing in the Elite Eight (these are the ones that are harsh...)
2000: #4 seed losing in the Second Round
1990: #5 seed losing in the First Round
1988: #3 seed losing in the Second Round
1987: #3 seed losing in the First Round ... sorry, guys! 🤢
1986: #4 seed losing in the Second Round

One alarmingly bizarre stat is that we are 1-5 in Second Round games as a #4 seed ... WTF?? In my head, though, I guess I feel like losing a frustrating game in the Second Round as a #4 seed is archetypal Illinois. :cry:

Here are some fun/extreme examples from other Big Ten schools!

Exceeded Seed Expectations
2015:
#7 seed Michigan State losing in the Final Four
2002: #5 seed Indiana losing in the National Championship Game
2000: #8 seed Wisconsin losing in the Final Four
2000: #6 seed Purdue losing in the Elite Eight
1989: #11 seed Minnesota losing in the Sweet Sixteen

Underperformed Seed Expectations
2021:
#2 seed Ohio State losing in the First Round
2016: #2 seed Michigan State losing in the First Round
2006: #3 seed Iowa losing in the First Round
1996: #1 seed Purdue losing in the Second Round
1995: #3 seed Michigan State losing in the First Round
1991: #3 seed Nebraska losing in the First Round ... the one that got away!!
1986: #3 seed Indiana losing in the First Round
1985: #1 seed Michigan losing in the Second Round

Enjoy, and apologies for any errors!! Bottom line, Illini Nation - it's time we got some luck in March, why not this year?!
I'd say the 89 team exceeded expectations getting to the final four and being a box out away from the national championship. That is our second best season ever, and would we say that only met expectations?
 
#155      
I'd say the 89 team exceeded expectations getting to the final four and being a box out away from the national championship. That is our second best season ever, and would we say that only met expectations?
No, of course not on a "case-by-case basis," and I would have LOVED to have been around for that season. However, I did not have the time to go look at every single season, especially for every single Big Ten team, over that timeframe and make judgements like that; I barely had time to do what I did, so I had to stick to some type of objective measure. ;) However, I would love to go back and do the +/- thing someone mentioned when I have the time. When I actually look at Illini seasons (that I can remember, starting with 2000-01), I would personally rank them like this:

ILLINI RESULTS
Exceeded Seed Expectations
2022:
#4 seed losing in the Second Round (was disappointed with no Sweet Sixteen, but I never thought we were beating Houston, unfortunately ... plus the first Big Ten championship banner since 2005 and after the snub in 2021 helped ease the sting for me.)
2013: #7 seed losing in the Second Round (after how we finished the season, I considered the win against CU and taking Miami to the brink a win.)
2005: #1 seed losing in the National Championship Game (goes without saying)
2004: #5 seed losing in the Sweet Sixteen (you could definitely see the flashes when we WHOOPED Cincinnati!)
2002: #4 seed losing in the Sweet Sixteen (this was after losing some key pieces from an Elite Eight team and some ups and downs that year, after all!)

Met Seed Expectations
2011:
#9 seed losing in the Second Round
2007: #12 seed losing in the First Round
2001: #1 seed losing in the Elite Eight (making the Final Four is tough, and Arizona was damn good ... especially with it being 5 on 8)

Underperformed Seed Expectations
2021:
#1 seed losing in the Second Round (loved this team, but this was a TRULY gut-wrenching loss.)
2009: #5 seed losing in the First Round (met my expectations after losing Chet, but we honestly still should have squeaked by WKU as a #5 seed.)
2006: #4 seed losing in the Second Round (really thought Dee and James could get us back to the Sweet Sixteen at least ... MAN was my perspective warped toward extreme success at this point! :ROFLMAO:)
2003: #4 seed losing in the Second Round (after winning the BTT and with it being Cook's senior year, I expected way more than the Second Round.)

For better or for worse, I have absolutely no expectations - positive or negative - for this year's team... lol.
 
#156      

Illini92and96

Austin, TX
No, of course not on a "case-by-case basis," and I would have LOVED to have been around for that season. However, I did not have the time to go look at every single season, especially for every single Big Ten team, over that timeframe and make judgements like that; I barely had time to do what I did, so I had to stick to some type of objective measure. ;) However, I would love to go back and do the +/- thing someone mentioned when I have the time. When I actually look at Illini seasons (that I can remember, starting with 2000-01), I would personally rank them like this:

ILLINI RESULTS
Exceeded Seed Expectations
2022:
#4 seed losing in the Second Round (was disappointed with no Sweet Sixteen, but I never thought we were beating Houston, unfortunately ... plus the first Big Ten championship banner since 2005 and after the snub in 2021 helped ease the sting for me.)
2013: #7 seed losing in the Second Round (after how we finished the season, I considered the win against CU and taking Miami to the brink a win.)
2005: #1 seed losing in the National Championship Game (goes without saying)
2004: #5 seed losing in the Sweet Sixteen (you could definitely see the flashes when we WHOOPED Cincinnati!)
2002: #4 seed losing in the Sweet Sixteen (this was after losing some key pieces from an Elite Eight team and some ups and downs that year, after all!)

Met Seed Expectations
2011:
#9 seed losing in the Second Round
2007: #12 seed losing in the First Round
2001: #1 seed losing in the Elite Eight (making the Final Four is tough, and Arizona was damn good ... especially with it being 5 on 8)

Underperformed Seed Expectations
2021:
#1 seed losing in the Second Round (loved this team, but this was a TRULY gut-wrenching loss.)
2009: #5 seed losing in the First Round (met my expectations after losing Chet, but we honestly still should have squeaked by WKU as a #5 seed.)
2006: #4 seed losing in the Second Round (really thought Dee and James could get us back to the Sweet Sixteen at least ... MAN was my perspective warped toward extreme success at this point! :ROFLMAO:)
2003: #4 seed losing in the Second Round (after winning the BTT and with it being Cook's senior year, I expected way more than the Second Round.)

For better or for worse, I have absolutely no expectations - positive or negative - for this year's team... lol.
Man, the 2001 screw job against Arizona. I was at that game. Our freshmen and walk-ons almost took them down but we couldn't quite get there. It would have been a great win coming off the Kansas win.
 
#157      
Hail to the Orange.jpg


Illini Cut down Nets.jpg
 
#168      
can all of the b1g ten teams get through the first round, for once?
I'd love this (though an Indiana upset would not make me at all mad! lol...), but I don't think Maryland can outlast West Virginia from what I've seen so far. WVU looks like the better team, regardless of who is currently on a run. JMO. In my bracket, I have:

L #9 West Virginia over #8 Maryland
W #1 Purdue over #16 Fairleigh Dickenson (remember them??)
W #7 Michigan State over #10 USC
L #9 Auburn over #8 Iowa
W #4 Indiana over #13 Kent State
L #7 Texas A&M over #10 Penn State (what a CRAP draw for both teams!)
W #9 Illinois over #8 Arkansas
W #7 Northwestern over #10 Boise State

So 5-3 for the Big Ten. I actually have every single Big Ten team except for Indiana losing in the Second Round, which makes me want to puke.

I almost picked us over KU, though ... I have this weird feeling where I'm more nervous about a "one and done bust" today vs. a good Arkansas team, whereas if we win today and look good ... I'd start to really believe for Saturday. :cool: 🤞
 
#169      

Mr. Tibbs

southeast DuPage
can all of the b1g ten teams get through the first round, for once?
Probably not as the B1G tends to under-perform in the tournament.
Numerous reasons have been postulated as to why. Doesnt matter really.
The B1G rarely has more than 1 team in the Elite Eight
 
#170      
My business partner and I were big CBB fans and big Illini fans as well. When the tourney came around each year we would fill out our brackets and have a wager of some kind on the outcome. What is funny is we would have our staff ladies fill out brackets as well, and of course none of them knew anything about CBB. "What color are their uniforms? I don't like that color I'm not voting for them. What is their team name? That's cute I'm voting for them." The funny part is that at least every other year one of them would beat one of us, and of course never let us hear the end of it for weeks afterward. And of course we paid up with a free lunch and a free spa day for them.
 
#171      

Mr. Tibbs

southeast DuPage
their is a much larger luck element to it than skill.
Kind of like playing roulette or slots
 
#172      
Probably not as the B1G tends to under-perform in the tournament.
Numerous reasons have been postulated as to why. Doesnt matter really.
The B1G rarely has more than 1 team in the Elite Eight
What's weird, though, is this really only started in 2021 ... I think the missed Tournament in 2020 kind of messed with people's sense of time (i.e., pre-COVID seems like a really long time ago), but the Big Ten actually did quite well in the 2019 NCAA Tournament, placing MSU in the Final Four, Purdue in the Elite Eight (and a FREAK loss away from a Final Four...), Michigan in the Sweet Sixteen and Maryland/Minnesota/Iowa all winning their first games to make it to the Second Round.

8 teams in the NCAA Tournament
7 teams in the Second Round
3 teams in the Sweet Sixteen
2 teams in the Elite Eight
1 team in the Final Four

Even last year, we had no teams in the Elite Eight or beyond ... but we also had ZERO teams seeded #2 or higher. So what exactly was the expectation?? What really shaped this narrative is 2021. We REALLY crapped the bed that year, with some VERY good basketball teams losing early:

#2 Ohio State losing in the First Round
#4 Purdue losing in the First Round
#1 Illinois losing in the Second Round
#2 Iowa losing in the Second Round
 
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#173      
Math majors could figure this thing down to the penny. But a quick and easy view is that each game has a 1 of 2 chance of being the right winning choice. Add a second game and your odds go to 1 of 4 choice of being right. Keep on doubling that by the total number of games played and you get down to the chances of ever having a perfect bracket.

Now of course to be accurate you'd have to plug in the true odds of winning any game... such as a #1 seed beating a #16 at plus-99%... and the 8th-9th game being more of a 50-50 deal. But with all the good data plugged in you would arrive at a reasonable percentage (VERY low) of ever having a perfect bracket.

Or you could just go to a decent psychic or some hidden lab sentient AI creature and get the right answers every time, right?

For my money, there will always only be one perfect bracket: The ones that end with the Illini winning the National Championship... without regard for how they got there.