I hope one of the underdogs can make it through.
NCAA Tournament 2023 Thread
sacraig
- The desert
Oh geez, I don't know. I don't follow the Wildcats other than casually whereas I waste time at work following message board rumors about the Illini, so keep that in mind. I would guess that the average Wildcat fan is more pissed than the average Illini fan since most of our less obsessed brethren are probably still just happy to make the tournament regularly after the Illini Dark Ages. Having said that, I don't really detect that much anger around here so much as disappointment. And most of the people I know are in full "good riddance" mode for Kerr Kriisa.
So the Big Ten and PAC 12 are now out of the tournament. The Big 12 has a chance to have 2 teams reach the Elite 8 (KSU & Texas), It looks like the big winner is the Big East with (Uconn in and Xavier and Creighton with a chance to make it with wins tomorrow,
The tournament never ceases to amaze me, especially this year. There seems to be more upsets than most recent years.
The tournament never ceases to amaze me, especially this year. There seems to be more upsets than most recent years.
sacraig
- The desert
The whole season this year has been nuts. The tournament is just reflecting that. No truly elite teams.
After tonight, there will be 12 teams left playing this season (Elite Eight plus last 4 NIT teams). 3 of those remaining teams are from Conference USA.
Watching San Diego st...I have a new appreciation for seasoned/veteran players. Kansas last year won with strong veterans...key.
Side note..
Tang of KSU said one of the simplest (and best) coach mantras for a team I've heard in a while...."love each other" and "play with joy".
Tang seems like a really good coach
Side note..
Tang of KSU said one of the simplest (and best) coach mantras for a team I've heard in a while...."love each other" and "play with joy".
Tang seems like a really good coach
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
Similar message from Larranaga as well
Newbie here, please go easy. I see not a single 1, 2, or 3 seed has reached the FF. Wow. What a ride. Three teams in the FF who have never been there before. There are just a lot of great players out there I've never seen before. I seem to be noticing a lot more mid-range jump shots by players who break their man down off the dribble then put up the 12-14 footer. Several have been fadeaways. It seems a departure from the almost exclusive dependence on the three point shot. For me, it would be hard to bet against UConn right now.
chiefini
- Rockford, Illinois
Welcome, Downey. Good first post. I’m hoping a first-time team wins, but I agree with you. Our Illini need more players (besides TSJ) putting up that mid-range shot.
I agree. We could also use another Goode--a dangerous three point shooter with some length. In the games I've watched, shooters have prevailed. The game has changed over time, but it's still about putting the ball in the basket. Next season we'll have a very mature Goode, hopefully strong and healthy. He also has leadership capabilities. In the game Alabama lost, I think they shot below 20% from three.
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It was pointed out on ESPN that the final 4 teams do not depend on a lot of contribution from freshmen. This possibly could be a function of the transfer portal.
Anyone else notice how many floaters and short mid range shots teams shot in the tournament, particularly SDSU and Miami. SDSU in particular looked like they had a game plan to attack Creighton’s drop coverage and it sure looked like they practice floaters.
I know the analytics don’t love it but I still think there’s value in an open 10-12 footer vs a shot at the basket with multiple defenders contesting. Still think TSJ would have benefitted from shooting a few more of those. Hope BU was paying attention.
I know the analytics don’t love it but I still think there’s value in an open 10-12 footer vs a shot at the basket with multiple defenders contesting. Still think TSJ would have benefitted from shooting a few more of those. Hope BU was paying attention.
Mr. Tibbs
- southeast DuPage
I agree 100%
Its tough to justify taking so many 3's in the college game when so many guys struggle to make 25% of them
sacraig
- The desert
In my opinion (which counts for nothing), it's a matter of comparing open 10-12 footers to contested three pointers. Analytics favor the three in general, but only if you are taking good threes. We weren't. If we can't get open threes then I bet the analytics favor open twos to contested threes.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
100% agree. The "analytics" in this case are extremely simple. If your shooting percentage on a given two attempt is more than 1.5x better than on a given three, the two is a better shot. If not, it's not. End of story.
Translating that into real basketball - creating open shots and knowing when to take them - is anything but simple. But the numbers themselves are not magic. If we could have converted 40% of mid-range twos, it would have been better than the 25% (ish?) we shot on contested threes.
Bigtex
- DFW
or said another way over the course of the game - Shoot 33% on 3's = 49.5% on 2's
A fan can dream can't he
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danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Exactly. I don't know the stats off hand but I'm guessing in the NBA, the bump is more like 1.25x from a three to a mid/long two - in that case, not worth it. As others have suggested, the college game is different and there may be situations where that trade-off is better the other way around.
sacraig
- The desert
Right. I would bet most of the analytics have assumed that the shooter is getting approximately equally-open shots regardless of the position on the floor. Over a large dataset taken from high-level basketball, that's probably roughly true. But it seems like (for whatever reason), our team would fire off a contested three or shoot a three while still running or other such low-percentage attempts without even looking for an open two. I don't know if it's kids trying to play hero ball or kids taking the "threes are better than twos" message too universally, but it really killed us.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Reminds me of a saying I recently learned: "When a metric becomes a target, it stops being a useful metric." In our case - when the goal became to shoot volume threes, they stopped being advantageous.
sacraig
- The desert
I just wonder how much was BU's goal, how much was the team's poor interpretation of BU's goal, and how much was hero ball.
Sounds reasonable.
MAN, I could have used you in every major corporation I ever worked for!
Mr. Tibbs
- southeast DuPage
agree
everyone in baseball swinging for the fences and guys in basketball jacking up three's all the time from all over
im not a fan
there is a reason in football they dont throw 40 yard hail mary's on every down
Worst final four ever? I can’t imagine a worse one in terms of interest
Total opposite for me. I generally root for the underdogs anyway, and the complete lack of blue bloods is icing on the cake. This tournament has been a blast.