This is crazy but hilarious that it would happen to us. I still think there is no excuse why we shouldn’t make a sweet 16 this year
NCAA Tournament Bracket
- Status
This is not that bad of a draw. One game at a time.
Chad Fleck
- Eureka, IL
Someone posted it here, but I like what Trotter said on Illini Inquirer's pod.
The Illini have the 2 best players on the floor until the Elite 8 at least. Bring em on.
The Illini have the 2 best players on the floor until the Elite 8 at least. Bring em on.
ILLINIShox24
Orange Krush '04 & '05
We're not locked in with them. They are locked in with us.
This is the year. Second weekend at least.
This is the year. Second weekend at least.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
This is what Illinoisans get for killing Joseph Smith at Nauvoo in 1844.
Joseph Smith was killed in Carthage IL
All because BYU won't play on Sunday.
I can’t help but relive past traumas and think about how in the world we got steamrolled by Loyola Chicago in 2021. We were so optimistic and confident coming off winning the Big Ten Tournament and being the #1 seed.
Then I took some comfort thinking that maybe March Madness, as the name implies, is truly a high variance event. The only sure way of finding success in it is going there year after year as high a seed as possible. Thinking how many clunkers Bill Self had, how many Jay Wright had before their success and how many Matt Painter has already had. So maybe the god of odds thinks we have had enough clunkers already?
Then I took some comfort thinking that maybe March Madness, as the name implies, is truly a high variance event. The only sure way of finding success in it is going there year after year as high a seed as possible. Thinking how many clunkers Bill Self had, how many Jay Wright had before their success and how many Matt Painter has already had. So maybe the god of odds thinks we have had enough clunkers already?
Illini in Indiana
- Indiana
Our Illini are different this year. I feel good about sweet 16, and we got a real shot at elite 8 and maybe final 4
It seem this year we have more tools in out tool box.
We have more options on how to play different team and different styles, we can adjust on the fly too.
Go Illini
It seem this year we have more tools in out tool box.
We have more options on how to play different team and different styles, we can adjust on the fly too.
Go Illini
sacraig
- The desert
Agreed. As a #3 seed it's sort of expected given it implies we're a top 12 team.
So BYU should have been a 5? Big deal! We are a 3! Go take care of business.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Based on the official ranking list, Illinois should have in theory been lined up to play against Gonzaga as the 6 seed. There are many (or a loud few) complaining being lined up with BYU, but I honestly feel like that matchup is better suited for Illinois. BYU is a much different team when playing away from Provo, and they do not have the athletes that Illinois does. Run BYU off the three point line, and I feel very comfortable with the odds of making the Sweet 16. Gonzaga is the type of team I am happy we get to avoid in round of 32 -- they always seem to play their best ball in March and make the Sweet 16 consistently.
If the Illini do not make the second weekend, it is not because the NCAA Committee gave the Illini an unfair draw. The stage is set for the Illini...no excuses.
If the Illini do not make the second weekend, it is not because the NCAA Committee gave the Illini an unfair draw. The stage is set for the Illini...no excuses.
sacraig
- The desert
I know they’ve under performed this year, but I think FAU can give UCONN a game. Their guards are still great and think Goldin and their other bigs can pull Klingen away from the basket and cause problems.
If NW was healthy I would probably pick them over FAU but I just don’t think they have the horses without Berry and Nicholson.
If NW was healthy I would probably pick them over FAU but I just don’t think they have the horses without Berry and Nicholson.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Before I actually do real work for my job, just wanted to remind everyone of all of these teams seeded #3 or above that have made the Final Four since 2000...
2000: #5 Florida (NC winner), #8 North Carolina, #8 Wisconsin (75% of Final Four)
2001: #3 Maryland (25%)
2002: #5 Indiana (runner up) (25%)
2003: #3 Syracuse (NC winner), #3 Marquette (50%)
2004: #3 Georgia Tech (runner up) (25%)
2005: #4 Louisville, #5 Michigan State (50%)
2006: #3 Florida (NC winner), #4 LSU, #11 George Mason (75%)
2007: No teams (0%)
2008: No teams (0%) ... total chalk, 4 #1 seeds...
2009: #3 Villanova (25%)
2010: #5 Butler (runner up), #5 Michigan State (50%)
2011: #3 UConn (NC winner), #8 Butler (runner up), #3 UConn, #11 VCU (100%)
2012: #4 Louisville (25%)
2013: #4 Michigan (runner up), #4 Syracuse, #9 Wichita State (75%)
2014: #7 UConn (NC winner), #8 Kentucky (runner up) (50%)
2015: #7 Michigan State (25%)
2016: #10 Syracuse (25%)
2017: #3 Oregon, #7 South Carolina (50%)
2018: #3 Michigan (runner up), #11 Loyola (50%)
2019: #3 Texas Tech (runner up), 5 Auburn (50%)
2020: N/A
2021: #11 UCLA (25%)
2022: #8 North Carolina (runner up) (25%)
2023: #4 UConn (NC winner), #5 San Diego State (runner up), #5 Miami (FL), #5 FAU (100%)
So out of 23 NCAA Tournaments since 2000, these are the stats regarding teams seeded #3 or above...
- 43.5% of Final Four participants.
- 21.7% of National Champions.
- 43.5% of National Runners-Up.
- 32.6% of total National Championship Game participants/finalists.
- 65.2% of National Championship Games have featured at least one team seeded #3 or above.
- 91.3% of Final Fours have featured at least one team seeded #3 or above.
So, say what you want about our draw ... all of those teams above played the games in front of them and made it, and SO CAN WE. A #3 seed is an amazing path to at least the Sweet Sixteen (our goal for a "success" of a postseason by almost all perspectives, I remind you!!), and we have given ourselves an achievable opportunity to find ourselves in the Elite Eight.
Plus, let's be real ... is there a real difference between the path for a #3 seed and a #2 seed, especially in these types of chaotic seasons? I'd argue no. If you open up that exercise to #2 seeds, the numbers get even more favorable.
TL;DR
We. Can. Do. This. Our draw is "scary" because UConn is good, and Iowa State looks hot?? Well, guess what ... that's big time March Madness! This draw frankly makes our 2022 draw look like a walk in the park, if you ask me. Let's go out and keep playing our game.
And one last thing ... we are GETTING BETTER! Our offense remains at an elite level, and our defense has been kicking into the type of gear in the second half of our BTT games that can carry us. Look at these second half adjustments...
vs. Nebraska: 51 points in first half. 36 points in second half. We gave up 87 and won by 11, but if we played two halves of that solid D, we would have held them to 72! We really kicked it into gear with about 16:00 left in the second half.
vs. Ohio State: This one isn't strictly by half, as we gave up 1 more point in the second half than the first. However, after being down 56-46 with 11:03 to go, we outscored them 31-18. That would have equated to roughly 32 points per half and 64 for for the game ... and a comfortable 13-point victory.
vs. Wisconsin: Again, a similar story to the OSU game. We trailed 61-51 with 14:38 to go, and from then on we outscored the Badgers 42-26. 26 points in 14:30 would have been consistent with giving up 72 points for the game and winning by over 20.
I KNOW that is too simple of a way to look at it. However, the point is that when we clamp down on D, we not only prove we can keep teams from scoring ... our offense does not suffer, and we pull away and/or close the gap. Our starts have been getting better (IMO), and it's entirely possible this team is REALLY starting to figure it out. Let's hope we are a well-oiled machine right at this moment and primed for a run!
2000: #5 Florida (NC winner), #8 North Carolina, #8 Wisconsin (75% of Final Four)
2001: #3 Maryland (25%)
2002: #5 Indiana (runner up) (25%)
2003: #3 Syracuse (NC winner), #3 Marquette (50%)
2004: #3 Georgia Tech (runner up) (25%)
2005: #4 Louisville, #5 Michigan State (50%)
2006: #3 Florida (NC winner), #4 LSU, #11 George Mason (75%)
2007: No teams (0%)
2008: No teams (0%) ... total chalk, 4 #1 seeds...
2009: #3 Villanova (25%)
2010: #5 Butler (runner up), #5 Michigan State (50%)
2011: #3 UConn (NC winner), #8 Butler (runner up), #3 UConn, #11 VCU (100%)
2012: #4 Louisville (25%)
2013: #4 Michigan (runner up), #4 Syracuse, #9 Wichita State (75%)
2014: #7 UConn (NC winner), #8 Kentucky (runner up) (50%)
2015: #7 Michigan State (25%)
2016: #10 Syracuse (25%)
2017: #3 Oregon, #7 South Carolina (50%)
2018: #3 Michigan (runner up), #11 Loyola (50%)
2019: #3 Texas Tech (runner up), 5 Auburn (50%)
2020: N/A
2021: #11 UCLA (25%)
2022: #8 North Carolina (runner up) (25%)
2023: #4 UConn (NC winner), #5 San Diego State (runner up), #5 Miami (FL), #5 FAU (100%)
So out of 23 NCAA Tournaments since 2000, these are the stats regarding teams seeded #3 or above...
- 43.5% of Final Four participants.
- 21.7% of National Champions.
- 43.5% of National Runners-Up.
- 32.6% of total National Championship Game participants/finalists.
- 65.2% of National Championship Games have featured at least one team seeded #3 or above.
- 91.3% of Final Fours have featured at least one team seeded #3 or above.
So, say what you want about our draw ... all of those teams above played the games in front of them and made it, and SO CAN WE. A #3 seed is an amazing path to at least the Sweet Sixteen (our goal for a "success" of a postseason by almost all perspectives, I remind you!!), and we have given ourselves an achievable opportunity to find ourselves in the Elite Eight.
Plus, let's be real ... is there a real difference between the path for a #3 seed and a #2 seed, especially in these types of chaotic seasons? I'd argue no. If you open up that exercise to #2 seeds, the numbers get even more favorable.
TL;DR
We. Can. Do. This. Our draw is "scary" because UConn is good, and Iowa State looks hot?? Well, guess what ... that's big time March Madness! This draw frankly makes our 2022 draw look like a walk in the park, if you ask me. Let's go out and keep playing our game.
And one last thing ... we are GETTING BETTER! Our offense remains at an elite level, and our defense has been kicking into the type of gear in the second half of our BTT games that can carry us. Look at these second half adjustments...
vs. Nebraska: 51 points in first half. 36 points in second half. We gave up 87 and won by 11, but if we played two halves of that solid D, we would have held them to 72! We really kicked it into gear with about 16:00 left in the second half.
vs. Ohio State: This one isn't strictly by half, as we gave up 1 more point in the second half than the first. However, after being down 56-46 with 11:03 to go, we outscored them 31-18. That would have equated to roughly 32 points per half and 64 for for the game ... and a comfortable 13-point victory.
vs. Wisconsin: Again, a similar story to the OSU game. We trailed 61-51 with 14:38 to go, and from then on we outscored the Badgers 42-26. 26 points in 14:30 would have been consistent with giving up 72 points for the game and winning by over 20.
I KNOW that is too simple of a way to look at it. However, the point is that when we clamp down on D, we not only prove we can keep teams from scoring ... our offense does not suffer, and we pull away and/or close the gap. Our starts have been getting better (IMO), and it's entirely possible this team is REALLY starting to figure it out. Let's hope we are a well-oiled machine right at this moment and primed for a run!
sacraig
- The desert
Why is the TL;DR as long as what came before it?
I feel like our defense will be there when it needs to be. My biggest concern is our legs on Saturday in what will be our 5th game in 8 days.
It will probably be high scoring, and I don't think they have anyone who can stop Domask and TJ, much less account for Hawkins, Guerrier, and Rodgers at the same time.
Our team can adapt offensively and defensively to most playing styles.
It will probably be high scoring, and I don't think they have anyone who can stop Domask and TJ, much less account for Hawkins, Guerrier, and Rodgers at the same time.
Our team can adapt offensively and defensively to most playing styles.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
I think FAU can give anyone a game. If they're on offensively they can outscore any team in the country.
Davis is a bit like a less physically imposing Shannon but he's incredibly athletic, can get to the line, and if he's hot he can knock down 5 or 6 threes in a game.
I think we all need to settle down lol I’m pretty sure we still would be complaining if the 6 seed in our pod was Gonzaga, St.Mary’s or San Diego St. and the 11 could easily have been a hot P6 team like Oregon, NC State or New Mexico. 2/4 13 seeds were Oakland and Colgate so we really only had Morehead St and Akron as options. Everyone would be screaming if we got Akron and how the committee loves drama. I’m just happy we played ourselves into a 3 seed and don’t have first round matchups with someone like McNeese or Charleston.
What I have seen yesterday and today about possible opponents.
BYU is really a 5 seed. BYU is the best 3 point shooting team in the nation and takes the most 3 point shots.
In the final top 25 + 1 ranking Iowa State is ranked #4.
U Conn is the best program in the nation.
Cool, let's get 'em!
ILL
BYU is really a 5 seed. BYU is the best 3 point shooting team in the nation and takes the most 3 point shots.
In the final top 25 + 1 ranking Iowa State is ranked #4.
U Conn is the best program in the nation.
Cool, let's get 'em!
ILL
- Status