NCAA Tournament Bracket
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With the first four complete, here are updated Fanduel futures odds (sorted by S16 odds)
Our odds have increased:
R32: 96.8->97.6%
S16: 76.1->78.0%
E8: 36.6->39.7%
FF: 18.5-19.3%
NCG: 8.9->9.5%
Champ: 3.6->4.4%
Other notable changes:
Florida's odds have increased 3-6% across all rounds, including +3% to win it all (Vandy, Neb, and Hou all decreased)
St John's odds are down 1-3% from S16 on
Purdue's odds are up 5% for the E8, and 1% to win it all
Arkansas S16 up 3%, Wisconsin down 4%
Our odds have increased:
R32: 96.8->97.6%
S16: 76.1->78.0%
E8: 36.6->39.7%
FF: 18.5-19.3%
NCG: 8.9->9.5%
Champ: 3.6->4.4%
Other notable changes:
Florida's odds have increased 3-6% across all rounds, including +3% to win it all (Vandy, Neb, and Hou all decreased)
St John's odds are down 1-3% from S16 on
Purdue's odds are up 5% for the E8, and 1% to win it all
Arkansas S16 up 3%, Wisconsin down 4%
the national
- the Front Range
Just a couple of brackets. A tip of the cap to the ol’ Illini.
Whenever I see someone wearing IU gear down here in SW Fla, I say (cheerfully) ‘Football school’. And they know it.
Thank you Cignetti, IU football fans tolerable, IU basketball fans, not so much.
BU/Illinois get a front page pic (link from AP 3/19) on March Madness
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Having some last minute bracket indecision on my flight … let’s hear the biggest upset(s) everyone has in the First Weekend!
- I’m really struggling with the East. I want so badly to not believe in either St. John’s (because of the Big East) and Kansas (they look off), but the analytics for those #12 and #13 seeds don’t seem there. I’ve flip flopped so much there.
- I have Groce and Co. riding to the Sweet Sixteen! Why not!
- I desperately want to pick Iowa to shock Florida in the Second Round. A #1 seed is due to go down that early, and if I pick us to make it out of that region anyway … might as well take my shot.
I also have some 11-over-6 ones, but those aren’t as crazy. Also have UCLA going on a run.
- I’m really struggling with the East. I want so badly to not believe in either St. John’s (because of the Big East) and Kansas (they look off), but the analytics for those #12 and #13 seeds don’t seem there. I’ve flip flopped so much there.
- I have Groce and Co. riding to the Sweet Sixteen! Why not!
- I desperately want to pick Iowa to shock Florida in the Second Round. A #1 seed is due to go down that early, and if I pick us to make it out of that region anyway … might as well take my shot.
I also have some 11-over-6 ones, but those aren’t as crazy. Also have UCLA going on a run.
Howard over scUM!!
Juwan is the gift that just keeps on giving
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
My bracket is always terrible, so I am happy to report I have picked Michigan to win it all.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
I have Akron and St. Mary's (don't sleep on the Gaels) both going to S16. Groce has a very favorable draw to possibly make the S16 -- Texas Tech is not the same with injuries and Alabama...
Outside of that, I do not have any crazy upsets in my bracket for the first two days.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Because I really like belaboring how awful IU is as a program- anybody else notice that this was Tucker DeVries' last year and rather than extend his career a little longer Indiana still declined the Crown? It really sticks out when you compare to Nebraska- last year Hoiberg won the Crown coaching his son and followed it up by having maybe one of their best seasons ever.
Evan Miya has us in the final four as well
(Granted he has 3 big ten teams which he admitted he hates)
He made all his picks based off %’s and “value adds” that would be picks with decent probability that most others aren’t picking
(Granted he has 3 big ten teams which he admitted he hates)
He made all his picks based off %’s and “value adds” that would be picks with decent probability that most others aren’t picking
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
It is really tough situation. My guess is that the locker room was done (I mean they practically folded down the stretch). The other part is that the Crown is so late in the postseason. I understand why teams would simply end season and prepare for portal madness.
IU's fanbase is also much different than Nebraska. IU expects better than Crown...Nebraska is generally happy with any postseason in basketball.
I suspect that the Crown will not last too many more seasons.
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lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Not to stick up for Indiana basketball, and I do feel like they should have accepted a post season tournament invitation, but the situations were slightly different.
Nebraska had the core of their team returning. Whereas Indiana loses Wilkerson, Devries, Conerway, Alexis, Bailey, and Enright, which is 5 of their top 6 in minutes. So they have a full rebuild in front of them. Probably figure time is better spent getting started on the portal than practicing with a group of guys that won’t be around next year.
UNI is my dark horse.
Anytime I look at these 12, 13, 14 seed upsets, I already know the higher seed is going to have better overall metrics. What I look for is the one or two things stylistically that the underdog does well that the favorite has struggled with a little bit. And from there I just use my imagination lol.
For UNI, since Feb 1, they've been 14th in 3p% and 11th in 2p%. St. John's D has been pretty stout during that time but for me, it's about whether I can visualize UNI stretching the floor and getting hot from three and I think they've shown they can do that.
Defensively, UNI gives up a lot of threes. Not a problem because St. John's is 303rd in 3p rate and 338 in 3p% since Feb 1.
And then tempo. This is the big one. Can UNI control the tempo? They are one of the slowest tempo teams in the country and St. John's is one of the faster tempos in the country. How will St. John's respond if UNI grinds the game to a halt, takes care of the ball, and executes enough to get open threes?
My bracket is an utter abomination every year, but someway I talk myself into agonizing over it.
Does revealing upset picks hurt my chances? Regardless, here it goes:
4-13: Hofstra over Alabama
5-12: Akron over TTU and Northern Iowa over St John’s.
I also have VCU and SF winning.
Does revealing upset picks hurt my chances? Regardless, here it goes:
4-13: Hofstra over Alabama
5-12: Akron over TTU and Northern Iowa over St John’s.
I also have VCU and SF winning.
LaTulip referenced this exact point with Northern Iowa.
Saw that! Smart guy. (Maybe I should wait til after the game to say that.)
I think the upset that MIGHT happen that I didn't pick is High Point over Wisconsin.
Retro62
- North Bethesda, Maryland
I try to root for the other BIG teams, but it's hard to root for Boyd: Seeing him agonize in an upset would be just fine. I feel the same way about Fears--and scUM--any scUM loss is good day.
Interesting. His is one of the few metrics systems that rates teams on whether they do better or worse against good opponents (and we have performed worse). So while we've boosted our overall metrics against weaker opponents, KenPom and Torvik don't care and give us "full credit" against tougher opponents, while EvanMiya de-rates us in those games.
Here's my last iteration of probabilities derived from FanDuel futures (odds taken from just before the first game).
Changes I notice:
- our odds improved slightly up through reaching the NC Game, but dipped for winning it all
- Arizona and Michigan are pulling away from Duke and (especially) Florida
- Michigan St's odds improved some, and so did Vandy's (but not as much)
Edit: my two brackets in the Loyalty Challenge used last nights' odds to randomly pick winners for each game, except with Illinois winning it all
Changes I notice:
- our odds improved slightly up through reaching the NC Game, but dipped for winning it all
- Arizona and Michigan are pulling away from Duke and (especially) Florida
- Michigan St's odds improved some, and so did Vandy's (but not as much)
Edit: my two brackets in the Loyalty Challenge used last nights' odds to randomly pick winners for each game, except with Illinois winning it all
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Welp, bracket busted.
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