Per 40/Efficiency Stats

#1      

TownieMatt

T
CU Expat
Chicago
TownieMatt
Infographic I created for our returning players and 5th year guys. This graphic shows Box Plus/Minus, Win Shares Per 40, and PER for our players that played in 2014/2015, including Thorne and Lewis from their previous teams.

nnCeEqc.png


A few takeaways:
- Malcolm and Kendrick really need to lead this team. Their advanced metrics show how important they are compared to other returners from last years team.
- Thorne is a huge addition (no pun intended) and really needs to become a focal point of our team when he's in the game.
- As I feared, Khalid Lewis wasn't a super addition. I know, I know, we needed a body and we got one. I'm not sure he'll be much more than a body.
- Leron Black needs to take a big step forward. We saw glimpses last season, but his inconsistency hurt really hurt his productivity. For us to be successful this season, Black really needs to move into the top 4 or 5 in most of the advanced metrics.
- First year players are going to have to provide serious production for us to be successful this season. Hopefully Finke and a couple of our Freshman guards can have big first seasons.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
#2      

Rob07

R
San Francisco
Rob07
TownieMatt said:
I wanted to dig this thread back up to post an infographic I created for our returning players and 5th year guys. This graphic shows Box Plus/Minus, Win Shares Per 40, and PER for our players that played in 2014/2015, including Thorne and Lewis from their previous teams.
Click to expand...

Very interesting, thanks for sharing!

My understanding is that in the NBA, a WS/48 of .100 indicates an "average" or "replacement level" player.

Are you normalizing to a 40-minute game and NCAA average points per possession, etc. when calculating these (so a .100 would be an "average" college player) or are these only useful for relative comparisons?
 
#3      

Illinicpa14

I
Chicago
Illinicpa14
TownieMatt said:
I wanted to dig this thread back up to post an infographic I created for our returning players and 5th year guys. This graphic shows Box Plus/Minus, Win Shares Per 40, and PER for our players that played in 2014/2015, including Thorne and Lewis from their previous teams.

nnCeEqc.png


A few takeaways:
- Malcolm and Kendrick really need to lead this team. Their advanced metrics show how important they are compared to other returners from last years team.
- Thorne is a huge addition (no pun intended) and really needs to become a focal point of our team when he's in the game.
- As I feared, Khalid Lewis wasn't a super addition. I know, I know, we needed a body and we got one. I'm not sure he'll be much more than a body.
- Leron Black needs to take a big step forward. We saw glimpses last season, but his inconsistency hurt really hurt his productivity. For us to be successful this season, Black really needs to move into the top 4 or 5 in most of the advanced metrics.
- First year players are going to have to provide serious production for us to be successful this season. Hopefully Finke and a couple of our Freshman guards can have big first seasons.
Click to expand...

This is great. Would it be difficult to get the metrics for the team vs. just BIG10 (and the other quality non-conference opponents)? I realize every game matters, but at the end of the day I think the games against those teams are what will or won't get us into the tournament and who truly needs to step up (ex. if I remember correctly Leron had a few big scoring games early on vs. cupcakes)
 
#4      

TownieMatt

T
CU Expat
Chicago
TownieMatt
Rob07 said:
Very interesting, thanks for sharing!

My understanding is that in the NBA, a WS/48 of .100 indicates an "average" or "replacement level" player.

Are you normalizing to a 40-minute game and NCAA average points per possession, etc. when calculating these (so a .100 would be an "average" college player) or are these only useful for relative comparisons?
Click to expand...

You're right on Rob. Average or replacement level in .100 in this metric as well. The /48 or /40 are essentially the same since it's just the amount of minutes in a full game.

Illinicpa14 said:
This is great. Would it be difficult to get the metrics for the team vs. just BIG10 (and the other quality non-conference opponents)? I realize every game matters, but at the end of the day I think the games against those teams are what will or won't get us into the tournament and who truly needs to step up (ex. if I remember correctly Leron had a few big scoring games early on vs. cupcakes)
Click to expand...

It could be done, but I'm always careful not to pick and choose what games to count. The bigger the sample the better for me. I also wanted to incorporate the transfers who didn't play in the B1G.
 
#5      

zpfled

Z
Logan Square, Chicago
zpfled
So what you're saying is that Malcolm Hill is a pretty good player?

:)
 
#6      

TownieMatt

T
CU Expat
Chicago
TownieMatt
zpfled said:
So what you're saying is that Malcolm Hill is a pretty good player?

:)
Click to expand...

Definitely our best. Although last season Rayvonte blew everyone else out of the water with his advanced metrics. His PER was 28.9.
 
#7      

Illinicpa14

I
Chicago
Illinicpa14
TownieMatt said:
It could be done, but I'm always careful not to pick and choose what games to count. The bigger the sample the better for me. I also wanted to incorporate the transfers who didn't play in the B1G.
Click to expand...

Makes sense! Just didn't know if those 5-10 cupcake games can have a pretty big effect over who is producing/important vs. who is not.
 
#10      

the national

the national
the Front Range
the national
TownieMatt, do you have the PER for Tracy from the year prior? I'm just curious how he compares.
 
#12      

TownieMatt

T
CU Expat
Chicago
TownieMatt
New Scorecard current through 11/29. I plan to post these every couple weeks or so (as time to update allows).

kaN5gSa.jpg


Takeaways:
- Mike Thorne injury leaves a huge hole in production, he was leading the team in % of possessions used (30.2% vs 24.3% for Malcolm), as well as PER.
- Kendrick Nunn hasn't lost a step since returning. He's one of our more efficient players in nearly every metric.
- The increase load Malcolm Hill has had to carry has hurt his efficiency, but having Kendrick back should help that.
- Alex Austin and Khalid Lewis are not efficient players, limiting their roles as freshman mature will be important.
- Michael Finke and Aaron Jordan have had a good start to their Illini careers on the offensive end (high ORtg), but need to improve defensively to stay on the court (lower PER).
 
#13      

Ransom Stoddard

Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
Bloomington, IL
Ransom Stoddard
I can't expect them to remain at the current level, but if Finke and AJ can stay above 105 on the ORating through the season I'm very very encouraged for the future, and it should continue to have a positive impact on this season.

Lewis.....:eek:
 
#14      

TownieMatt

T
CU Expat
Chicago
TownieMatt
Ransom Stoddard said:
I can't expect them to remain at the current level, but if Finke and AJ can stay above 105 on the ORating through the season I'm very very encouraged for the future, and it should continue to have a positive impact on this season.

Lewis.....:eek:
Click to expand...

It will be interesting to see how Finke's efficiency changes with the additional minutes he'll see. You would expect a drop initially, but hopefully also some improvement as he gains experience.

With Nunn back, AJ will likely see <10 mins/game. However, if he can hit open threes, he might remain pretty high on the ORtg metric.
 
#15      

BirdDog9048

BirdDog9048
The Chief Lives
Chicago, IL
BirdDog9048
I think it'll be interesting to see how Mav adjusts to a sizeable increase in minutes. His ORtg and PER are both quite high, but are probably both skewed by the effect of his 6/6 night against UAB given the small sample size so far.

I've been pleasantly surprised by his contributions thus far. I think a summer/fall of practicing against Thorne may have helped him quite a bit, and big men tend to develop a bit slower than guards anyways. The loss of Thorne is huge, but we may be able to overcome it if Mav is able to mostly maintain his efficiency with the increase in playing time.
 
#16      

Bomb Squad 217

B
Bomb Squad 217
BirdDog9048 said:
I think it'll be interesting to see how Mav adjusts to a sizeable increase in minutes. His ORtg and PER are both quite high, but are probably both skewed by the effect of his 6/6 night against UAB given the small sample size so far.

I've been pleasantly surprised by his contributions thus far. I think a summer/fall of practicing against Thorne may have helped him quite a bit, and big men tend to develop a bit slower than guards anyways. The loss of Thorne is huge, but we may be able to overcome it if Mav is able to mostly maintain his efficiency with the increase in playing time.
Click to expand...

Its not really Mav's offensive efficiency im concerned about at this point. Its his defense. But we are going to need him in there so hopefully Leron can make up for some of Mav's bad defense with help side blocks or double teams. Unless we really channel our inner Warriors or flyin Illini and run with Leron at center.
 
#17      

TownieMatt

T
CU Expat
Chicago
TownieMatt
Mav's efficiency metrics were pretty high before the UAB game, so he's clearly played well to start the year. That being said, a lot of his minutes thus far this season have come against backup bigs from small teams. I expect his efficiency to dip when he's asked to guard B1G level centers.
 
#19      

BananaShampoo

B
Captain 'Paign
Phoenix, AZ
BananaShampoo
MrOizo said:
Jaylon and Lewis, as upper classmen... Wow
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Jaylon just coming off injury and very small sample size. Not really fair to compare him just yet. I'd expect his metrics to improve substantially as he gets more time on the court. :thumb:
 
#20      

MrOizo

MrOizo
Chicago
MrOizo
BananaShampoo said:
Jaylon just coming off injury and very small sample size. Not really fair to compare him just yet. I'd expect his metrics to improve substantially as he gets more time on the court. :thumb:
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True, agree. I looked it up after and noticed that. I can't back to correct my statement but saw your post.

I hope he just focused on defense and doing what he did last year. Lets the game come to him. Looking forward to Tate getting healthier.
 
#21      

TownieMatt

T
CU Expat
Chicago
TownieMatt
Updated Scorecard through the UIC game.

3tMh7Fw.png


Takeaways:
- This scorecard really illustrates the issue with this team. Right now there are a few players keeping us afloat and a lot of players being forced to play that really shouldn't be.
- It's hard to imagine where we'd be without Malcolm, but Kendrick has really been the engine of the team since he's come back.
- Finke is a great offensive player for a Freshman (albeit RS). If he can step up his D, we'll have a great asset moving forward.
- For this team to improve, we have to get something from a PG. Tate and Lewis have been woeful.
 
#22      

lstewart53x3

lstewart53x3
Scottsdale, Arizona
lstewart53x3
TownieMatt said:
Updated Scorecard through the UIC game.

3tMh7Fw.png


Takeaways:
- This scorecard really illustrates the issue with this team. Right now there are a few players keeping us afloat and a lot of players being forced to play that really shouldn't be.
- It's hard to imagine where we'd be without Malcolm, but Kendrick has really been the engine of the team since he's come back.
- Finke is a great offensive player for a Freshman (albeit RS). If he can step up his D, we'll have a great asset moving forward.
- For this team to improve, we have to get something from a PG. Tate and Lewis have been woeful.
Click to expand...

We really miss Thorne and TA. Bad.
 
#24      

ssanti13

ssanti13
ssanti13
Love seeing what Nunn has been doing coming off an injury. It's impressive, really...On another note, I'm not sure how many 20 point games Malcolm had last season, but he's already had 5 games this year with 20+ points... God. Our back court could be so, so good with a legit point guard :mad:
 
#25      

IllinoisFan733

IllinoisFan733
Chicago
IllinoisFan733
ssanti13 said:
Love seeing what Nunn has been doing coming off an injury. It's impressive, really...On another note, I'm not sure how many 20 point games Malcolm had last season, but he's already had 5 games this year with 20+ points... God. Our back court could be so, so good with a legit point guard :mad:
Click to expand...

Next year. That's what us Cubs fans say. :thumb:

I believe will be that TJL will be able to get the offense into favorable scoring positions, and also being solid on the defensive end. Nunn/Hill will be seniors. Everybody else will have another year under the belt.

Just have to gut out the PG position this year and hope for better play from Lewis/Tate.