Someone please talk me off the ledge! The line moved from 4.5 to 6.5. It makes no sense why Illinois should be a 6.5-point underdog. If I had no emotional attachment to this game, I would bet on Indiana assuming the sharp bettors and odds makers know more than me.
I'll first say that if Scott is out, that really does hurt us ... and that is an ACTUAL reason to temper your expectations. However, an astonishing number of people here were adopting a sky is falling attitude here way before that. So, here I go ... and guess what?? You don't need a cherrypicked computer ranking or some other form of overthinking to accept these!
1. It was always going to be tough, and anyone should have known that! Indiana is a top 10 team, and it's a road game under the lights ... why would any of us EXPECT a win?? All you can do in these types of games is expect your squad to show up ready to play. On that point...
2. The VAST majority of time under Bielema, we have showed up - we are a very well-prepared team, overall. Sure, you have your outliers like the Oregon beatdown, but the fact is this team went into incredibly hostile night game atmospheres vs. ranked opponents at Nebraska and PSU last year, and we held our own in both (picking up the W in Lincoln). I don't really see a reason to believe we will all of a sudden lay down and take a beating vs. #19 Indiana.
3. Are we as good as Old Dominion? I'll go ahead and make the apparently bold proclamation that the #9-ranked and reigning Citrus Bowl champion Fighting Illini are in fact undeniably better than ODU, even with Scott out. If ODU can hang with the mighty Indiana, I think we can, too - even in a primetime atmosphere. Will our hanging around be enough to get a W? I don't know ... but Bielema's teams make a habit out of keeping themselves in tough games vs. opponents they "shouldn't beat," and that puts you in the position to sometimes pull out the W (e.g., 2021 at #9 PSU, 2021 at #20 Minnesota, 2023 at Maryland, 2024 vs. #19 KU, 2024 at #24 Nebraska, 2024 vs. #12 South Carolina, etc.).
4. Why are we all of a sudden acting like our coaching staff is completely outmatched? Lol, Bret and Cignetti both came to struggling programs and turned them around - admittedly in very different ways and on different timelines. Sure, Cig's approach was lightning quick and took the nation by storm ... but was it more sustainable? Let's also not discount that Bret has an absolutely unambiguously more impressive head coaching career overall, dating back to Wisconsin. He knows what he's doing every bit as much as Cig and Co. do.
This has been nothing short of an epic snowball, haha. We went from demolishing Duke on the road and having a "Bring on Indiana!" attitude, and the following happened...
1. Duke lost on the road by one TD (though it admittedly was more like a 10-point game) to a Tulane team that is 3-0 and looks pretty good from where I am sitting ... guess we'll see what they're made of this week when they play at #13 Ole Miss!
2. The Illini/Indiana game was announced as NBC's primetime game, making it more likely that it will be a rowdy atmosphere.
3. Indiana beat an FCS school 73-0 at home.
4. Illinois got off to a slow start vs. Western Michigan ... that turned into a 38-0 win, lol.
5. Our board welcomed some Hoosier visitors who, to put it mildly, espoused an enormous amount of confidence in both their coaching staff and personnel.
6. The Scott injury was announced.
7. The line for the game (which always favored the ranked home team, who would have thought??) moved accordingly.
Really only #6 should have any bearing about how we feel, lol. This is a tough road game vs. a ranked conference rival ... why wouldn't we expect a daunting task? We've stepped up to those challenges and won before, and we can again. We also might lose ... but the emotional distress and UTTER lack of confidence in this staff's and team's ability to even put themselves in a position to win is astonishing, at least to this fan.
