Pregame: Illinois at Maryland, Saturday, October 14th, 2:30pm CT, NBC
- Status
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
I'll be sitting in that stadium tomorrow afternoon for at least three hours, likely in a steady rain. I fervently hope that you're correct. Unfortunately, I doubt that you are.
The Galloping Ghost
- Washington, DC
Counterpoint. I'll be there for this one. We've never beaten UMD when I'm on their campus. That includes men's and women's basketball. Please, save your money.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
My last post on this.
I don't want to speak for Mr. Tibbs, but nowhere did he say the odd setter was wrong. The article you shared points out that the "fallacy" is that they take in exactly even bets on both sides at all times. Neither myself or Mr. Tibbs ever said that they can get perfectly in balance (or necessarily want to), and agree that the books want to be on the right side of any unbalanced action -- but how do you get there? You have to open the line somewhere, and the books don't simply run their algorithms and set the line at where their algorithms say the results will be. They set the line in a way to entice the most action possible (bringing in considerable vig), and preferably not be completely out of balance. If some natural imbalance occurs, they are fine with that. If they perceive an advantage based on their wise guys betting against the general public, they will take that risk as well and try to side with these "experts" and not push to get back to "balance". Our primary argument has always been that the "opening lines" are set to entice action and be relatively in balance. Your article does not refute that, but rather refutes the general practice of staying completely in balance at all times (which is not feasible).
One thing is still clear though and cannot be refuted by anything you say: vig runs the joint. Always has and always will. Books will almost always have some clear action on a game, but they do not make their primary profit on winning those -- it is just the gravy to pad the books. Below is just one of many articles on the matter showing that vig is the primary source of revenue for the book (not gambling). What the exact balance the book wants on a particular line is subject to many factors, but there is still a balance number they do not want to exceed.
Last edited:
The Galloping Ghost
- Washington, DC
Man, I'm so glad I don't gamble and don't need to care about any of this.
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
I have a feeling that Saturday afternoon around 5:30 or so I will never have felt so vindicated in my Buddhist sense of detachment to the game. Either that or, in the face of the horror I am witnessing, I will actively be dissociating and will require hospitalization.
The original post which I disagreed which was the line is where it is because they just want equal money on both sides. Obviously that's not the case as I've proven. Now the main point is vig runs the joint lol.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Dan: Please move the sportsbook talk to a separate thread (or delete). It is taking away from the actual game thread and digressed away from the initial post pages ago which was related to this game.
Still trying not to be rude?
Both ends of the spectrum are true. It's all about risk management. Perfectly balanced betting assures a risk-free 10%. The best minds in the game will give a probable higher return, but at added risk. It all comes down to the acceptable level of risk and the tolerance of the management.
William Hill probably has the capital and the know-how to take a lot more positions and risk, and can swallow any losses more easily. The small local sportsbook likely stays much closer to getting the vig.
Can the Illini reverse the downward trend at Maryland or a at any time this season? Here is a chart of the team's performance over the last season and a half. The metric is the BCf Toys game score--the value generated per possession relative to an average team performance on a neutral field against an average team.
The values seem to meet the eye test; the Illini's best game this year was v Penn St, and the worst was v Purdue. Last year, besides the stinkers at Indiana and the home games v Mich St and Purdue, Illinois was above average (0 on the vertical axis). But this year Illinois has played only one game that rates above zero. The only way is up.
The values seem to meet the eye test; the Illini's best game this year was v Penn St, and the worst was v Purdue. Last year, besides the stinkers at Indiana and the home games v Mich St and Purdue, Illinois was above average (0 on the vertical axis). But this year Illinois has played only one game that rates above zero. The only way is up.
GrayGhost77
- Centennial, CO
Could you maybe please find something else to do?
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I posted in the uniforms thread that we should finally break out the O/W/B combo to conjure up some of that good juju that led to our epic win in 1999 at the Big House - a game where we wore that same uniform combo. Now I was too young to remember the 1999 season, but I went back and looked at it, and we actually aren't in too different of a spot at a similar time of the year...
2023
W vs. Toledo (way too close but didn't look awful)
L at Kansas (somewhat of a blowout, but we mounted a decent Fake Comeback)
L vs. #7 Penn State (lopsided final score, but it likely included our best stretch of football that was simply plagued by crazy turnover issues)
W vs. Florida Atlantic (regardless of score, beat a team we should beat to get to .500)
L at Purdue (a close game turns into a route with our epic collapse in the third quarter)
L vs. Nebraska (completely uninspiring effort on our home field when we desperately needed a win)
--- Insert at Maryland, a team that hung with #4 OSU on the road last week ---
1999
W vs. Arkansas State (blowout)
W vs. San Diego State (blowout)
W at Louisville (worth remembering Louisville was a "mid major" at this time)
L vs. #19 Michigan State (27-10 is similar to our 30-13 loss to Penn State)
L at Indiana in OT (closer game but still a Big Ten road loss in the same spot as Purdue)
L vs. Minnesota (blowout, uninspiring loss at home when we needed a win to get back on track)
--- Insert at #9 Michigan ---
Again, it isn't totally the same ... but the two games leading up to a road trip where we are heavy underdogs in mid-October is a similar setup. The biggest difference, of course, is that the 1999 Illini didn't have the same optimism coming off of a 3-8 season in 1998. What is so disappointing about this year is that it was (rather, still is technically...) our chance to not take that classic two steps backwards after we gain some momentum. Additionally, we have had neither a hot start nor a "getting better each game" track ... the same issues have just hung around.
With all that said ... here's to praying that Saturday is our huge, season-saving upset opportunity!
2023
W vs. Toledo (way too close but didn't look awful)
L at Kansas (somewhat of a blowout, but we mounted a decent Fake Comeback)
L vs. #7 Penn State (lopsided final score, but it likely included our best stretch of football that was simply plagued by crazy turnover issues)
W vs. Florida Atlantic (regardless of score, beat a team we should beat to get to .500)
L at Purdue (a close game turns into a route with our epic collapse in the third quarter)
L vs. Nebraska (completely uninspiring effort on our home field when we desperately needed a win)
--- Insert at Maryland, a team that hung with #4 OSU on the road last week ---
1999
W vs. Arkansas State (blowout)
W vs. San Diego State (blowout)
W at Louisville (worth remembering Louisville was a "mid major" at this time)
L vs. #19 Michigan State (27-10 is similar to our 30-13 loss to Penn State)
L at Indiana in OT (closer game but still a Big Ten road loss in the same spot as Purdue)
L vs. Minnesota (blowout, uninspiring loss at home when we needed a win to get back on track)
--- Insert at #9 Michigan ---
Again, it isn't totally the same ... but the two games leading up to a road trip where we are heavy underdogs in mid-October is a similar setup. The biggest difference, of course, is that the 1999 Illini didn't have the same optimism coming off of a 3-8 season in 1998. What is so disappointing about this year is that it was (rather, still is technically...) our chance to not take that classic two steps backwards after we gain some momentum. Additionally, we have had neither a hot start nor a "getting better each game" track ... the same issues have just hung around.
With all that said ... here's to praying that Saturday is our huge, season-saving upset opportunity!
FlyNavy
- Los Angeles
Funny, I was thinking about the '99 season as well. I was in school then, and even went to Louisville for that road game (they were C-USA if I remember). We had won 5 total games the previous three years including an 0-11 year, but a 3-0 start brought a bit of optimism to Champaign. That optimism was completely gone about halfway through the Minnesota game, which happened to be Homecoming. And even at the Big House the following week as 24 point underdogs, we were down by 20 early in the 3rd quarter.
Then it happened. 28 unanswered, against Tom Brady. Momentum that carried through the rest of the season with a blowout at Columbus and another at the MicronPC Bowl. That was a special year for sure.
Unfortunately there are plenty of years where that didn't happen - 2003 was a season that started with some hope but went completely off the rails. But could it happen? It's possible, this team has the talent to pull it off - probably will take some turnovers to get there. I would say the Wisconsin game is more likely the "get right" game than Maryland. But you never know till they play the game...
Last edited:
Dan
Admin
Hi Illini2010-11, appreciate the suggestion. At this point we've made it to the day before the game so let's just wait it out until this thread is closed & the Game Thread is opened up on Saturday. Go Illini
Hey! @altgeld88, just wanted to say that I attended the last game Illinois visited College Park and it was a rainy day. I had my compact, small umbrella with me and they would not let me bring it into the stadium!! I was pissed. My car was all the way across campus, it was my first time on campus, and I did not know if I could make it back to the stadium in time for the game. So I walked back to the location where the pre-game Illinois gathering was, hosted by Josh, and left it behind a sofa. When I left after the third period because Maryland was pounding us, I completely forgot about the umbrella, and am still pissed about it!! I want my umbrella!!!
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
I've got your back on this one. Where's the sofa located? I'll check tomorrow.
Don't put it past Josh to have pinched it, however.
Gonna be interesting to see how much weather plays a factor in the game tomorrow. Looks like they're calling for about a 60-65% chance of light rain around kickoff with the rain becoming more steady and the % chance of rain increasing as the game goes along. Wind likely won't be a factor and the temperature will be in the low 60s throughout.
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
I don't know, but clearly the color of our pants will dictate the outcome of the game.
illini80
- Forgottonia
Sadly, that has been completely ineffective in recent attempts. But it will live in infamy in our memories!
Here's what I fear:
Maryland plays in the rain like it knows how, and wins big.
Illinois looks like they've never played football in adverse weather, loses big, and we suffer even more injuries.
Maryland plays in the rain like it knows how, and wins big.
Illinois looks like they've never played football in adverse weather, loses big, and we suffer even more injuries.
- Status