Pregame: Illinois at Nebraska, Tuesday, January 11th, 7:30pm CT, BTN

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#176      

Bleedorangeandblue44

B
Bleedorangeandblue44
illiniguy24 said:
I’ll be surprised if we’re higher than 23rd tomorrow. But two wins this week and we’ll be set up with the chance to start 7-0 in conference against Purdue as well as prove we are a top 10 team. I’ve been fantasizing about it all day 😅
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23rd would be fine with me. As others have said, it's so good to be in top 25 and see your scores scroll on ESPN and other things I never really thought about before, but realized last night watching the scores go by on the scroll with no Illini. It is important in getting where we want to be as a program like we were in 80s or Kruger/Self years. I'll be looking to see those AP top 25 rankings tomorrow more than I have in awhile for just this reason
 
#178      

alaskaillini

A
alaskaillini
2qtslow said:
Has anyone ever proposed treating unplayed games as ties? That seems at least somewhat fair to both teams.

Give Michigan three ties for their three missed games last year and they finish 15.5 and 4.5, or a half game behind the Beloved. Is that fair?
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Only if it applies retroactively to '20-'21.
 
#180      

sinmyp1

S
sinmyp1
727ill said:
I truly don't get everyones fascination with the AP poll -- it couldn't be more meaningless.

If you want some ranking thing to keep track of during the season to keep you entertained, then look at Kenpom.
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I gets you on sportscenter so high school basketball players know you exist. I means you are relevent and talked about. It means the people that vote for the Player of the year get to see you and your best players may have a chance to be all Americans. Thus is all important to recruits which you need in order to keep building your program.
 
#181      

Brosky

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Brosky
purcy51 said:
My wife likes us not playing on weekends, that way she can crack the whip and make me finish the bathroom remodel.
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Not really a reply to your post, but replies are all I can do on this board. We are still at #9 according to Sagarin, with Duke at 10 and Purdue at 6. Pomery has us at #11, just ahead of Duke. I think the next highest is MSU at 17.
 
#182      

Brosky

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Brosky
The AP poll isn't worth much. As I've said before, Loren Tate used to say his vote was a farce because he hadn't seen most of the teams play.
 
#183      

Brosky

B
Brosky
Fighter of the Nightman said:
We were #26, so it’d be a joke at this point if we aren’t ranked. Anyone with a set of eyes can see we’ve been playing like a top 15 team since December started … time to forgive us for the Marquette/Cincinnati games already, lol!
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Sportswriters polling is not reliable. Most of them haven't seen most of the teams play. It's fun to see what they think, but that's about it. Far more reliable are rankings according to Sagarin and Pomeroy, people who study the teams carefully and then make their judgments based on computerized logarithms.
 
#184      

RML

R
RML
Brosky said:
Sportswriters polling is not reliable. Most of them haven't seen most of the teams play. It's fun to see what they think, but that's about it. Far more reliable are rankings according to Sagarin and Pomeroy, people who study the teams carefully and then make their judgments based on computerized logarithms.
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If we can convince the media to rely on computer logarithms (rather than polls) for deciding which teams to report on, we'll all be happy.
 
#186      

sacraig

sacraig
The desert
sacraig
Brosky said:
Sportswriters polling is not reliable. Most of them haven't seen most of the teams play. It's fun to see what they think, but that's about it. Far more reliable are rankings according to Sagarin and Pomeroy, people who study the teams carefully and then make their judgments based on computerized logarithms.
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GIF by Achievement Hunter


Sagarin and Pomeroy don't "study the teams carefully." That's too much for any one person. They're systems are based on statistical modeling of the data from each team.
 
#187      

the juiceman cometh

T
the juiceman cometh
B-ILL said:
Warren Nolan is very high on Illinois to finish the season strong. They're projecting a 17 point win at Nebraska and our only conference loss for the remainder of the year to be at Purdue by 5 points. Their model has Illinois finishing at #10 RPI. I'll take it.

View attachment 14133

Illinois Men's Basketball Predicted Results Scores & RPI | WarrenNolan.com

2022 Illinois Fighting Illini Men's Basketball Predicted Results for Every Upcoming Game and Predicted Final RPI, Strength of Schedule, and Quadrant Wins
www.warrennolan.com www.warrennolan.com

Predicted Conference Standings - 2022 Big Ten Men's Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

Big Ten Conference Predicted Final Standings for Men's College Basketball with predicted RPIs and conference RPI
www.warrennolan.com www.warrennolan.com
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It looks like this model makes the classic mistake of projecting total win-loss based on the individual projections of games. Here's an example of why this is wrong. Say the Illini have a 60% chance of winning in each of their next ten games. Over that ten game stretch you'd expect them to win 6 and lose 4 (60% of 10). Their odds of winning all ten are 0.6%. But this model would project them to win all 10. If you look at Torvik, he's got us favored in all but 2 remaining games, but his projected win/loss has us losing 5 more and going 22-8 (15-5). This is the reason why.
 
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#188      

ILLFAN67

I
ILLFAN67
sinmyp1 said:
I gets you on sportscenter so high school basketball players know you exist. I means you are relevent and talked about. It means the people that vote for the Player of the year get to see you and your best players may have a chance to be all Americans. Thus is all important to recruits which you need in order to keep building your program.
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In addition you get more national tv televised games. Your right is all about much better visibility for the program and recruiting. Don’t really understand why people don’t get this.
 
#189      

sacraig

sacraig
The desert
sacraig
the juiceman cometh said:
It looks like this model makes the classic mistake of projecting total win-loss based on the individual projections of games. Here's an example of why this is wrong. Say the Illini have a 60% chance of winning in each of their next ten games. Over that ten game stretch you'd expect them to win 6 and lose 4 (60% of 10). Their odds of winning all ten are 0.6%. But this model would project them to win all 10. If you look at Torvik, he's got us favored in all but 2 remaining games, but his projected win/loss has us losing 5 more and going 22-8 (15-5). This is the reason why.
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Hey look, a multinomial distribution! I think; it's been a while.
 
#191      

B-ILL

B-ILL
Working From Home
B-ILL
the juiceman cometh said:
It looks like this model makes the classic mistake of projecting total win-loss based on the individual projections of games. Here's an example of why this is wrong. Say the Illini have a 60% chance of winning in each of their next ten games. Over that ten game stretch you'd expect them to win 6 and lose 4 (60% of 10). Their odds of winning all ten are 0.6%. But this model would project them to win all 10. If you look at Torvik, he's got us favored in all but 2 remaining games, but his projected win/loss has us losing 5 more and going 22-8 (15-5). This is the reason why.
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Yes, agreed. I don't actually think we're going to go 19-1, and your example is correct. I don't use that model/website to set my realistic W-L expectations, but it gives me a reference point for where we are in RPI/NET/ELO, an evolving projection for how each game could/should end up with only that game considered (they change their projections as wins/losses occur each day), and a projection for where we end up in the conference.
 
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