Pregame: Illinois vs Fairleigh Dickinson, Friday, December 29th, 8:00pm CT, BTN

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#76      

Orangetool

O
Orangetool
GallopingGhost said:
People thought Colgate was the trap game. Wrong. šŸ“¢FDU is the real trap gamešŸ“¢. People on this board and even podcasts already marking this as a win, which is definition of a trap.

1. Coming off emotional win āœ…
2. Holiday break āœ…
3. Kenpom 300+ so easy to overlook āœ…

You saw what they did to Purdue.

Now, that being saidā€¦ I think we take care of business easily. This team hasnā€™t looked underprepared since Valpo, and we still covered that game. Need to seal the nonconference strongly and not get a Q4 loss before 2024. Thatā€™s a 1-2 seed line loss if we are upset.
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I agree that we should take care of business.
This Illini squad (maturity) doesn't look like one that will fail in a trap game.

Game start intensity and opponent preparedness are looking like hallmarks of this team.
 
#77      

RML

R
RML
blackdog said:
My point was that if BU wanted to he has shown he has plays they could install that could be tailored for Dain but he hasn't shown himself to be reliable enough to stay on the floor to make it worth doing.
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Saving them for Purdue? Dain's probably going to be really important there.
 
#78      

Dbell1981

D
Decatur, IL
Dbell1981
Cant say enough good things about Ty Rodgers. The freshman last year that saw the floor the least and look at him now. He is a summer or 2 of 1000 shots a day away from being unstoppable! Cant wait to see the player he is gonna become. Looking forward to seeing the team live tomorrow night. Got some tickets for Christmas so we hope to enjoy a good thrashing and some garbage minutes for the future stars. Lets Go! I-L-L!
 
#80      

pruman91

pruman91
Paducah, Ky
pruman91
Dbell1981 said:
Cant say enough good things about Ty Rodgers. The freshman last year that saw the floor the least and look at him now. He is a summer or 2 of 1000 shots a day away from being unstoppable! Cant wait to see the player he is gonna become. Looking forward to seeing the team live tomorrow night. Got some tickets for Christmas so we hope to enjoy a good thrashing and some garbage minutes for the future stars. Lets Go! I-L-L!
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have a great time brother.....................

I N I.....................
 
#81      

aaeismacgychel

A
aaeismacgychel
treesap32 said:
Gotta run up the score on these guys to push us up higher in the NET rankings. KenPom's got us winning 98-66. I'm afraid if we don't win by at least 32 we'll likely drop in the NET.
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I can't comment on NET because the primary portion of the ranking system is a black box formula wise. There's unfortunately little transparency in how each of the components they state they use are utilized or their relative weight. So there's just not enough information available to say how important efficiency margin is to opponent quality. It's one of the reasons I'm not a big fan of NET and the skeptical part of me questions whether the ambiguity is there so they can adjust their algorithm behind the scenes (possibly even in-season which is something you'd indeed want to stay hidden).

As for kenpom, 30pts is pretty much the cutoff for margin of victory where each subsequent point has largely diminishing returns when it comes to the final efficiency metrics. Ken put this limiter in for 2 reasons- not doing so would allow blowouts over the worst teams to have significantly higher weight than the rest of the schedule because they'd functionally behave like outliers pushing a team's efficiency metrics artificially upwards. The 2nd reason was that at 30pts, teams shouldn't be punished for clearing the benches instead of keeping starters in to run up the score to improve their analytical numbers. So winning by 60 in kenpom damps your metrics to similar to that if you had won by 30.

What does this mean? Well for kenpom, if you're favored by over 30pts, it means that no matter what your margin of victory is, you can't perform better than expected, and as such, having this game on your schedule is always a negative for your efficiency metrics. And for other non-kenpom based systems that use strength of schedule in their equations, games against these type of opponents serve as lead balloons and tank those numbers (it's why despite playing 3 top 15 teams in noncon, our noncon SOS will still be over 200, which is pretty insane). So typically, games against 300+ rated teams should be avoided if you can.
 
#82      

Calvin

C
Calvin
BalloonsTheElephant said:
Ty has continued to improve. Not much of a concern to me anymore. He had a really bad 2-3 minute stretch with a couple TOs and passed a layup for what ended up being a really good open three that was missed.

He needs to look to score when he's by the basket. That's the next step in his development, but he has gotten to where he needed to be this year. He's playing his role, which is what we need.
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I kinda think of Ty as a freshman, even though he's a soph, due to having to move positions to play PG. If you think of him that way, he's pretty good despite the shooting/FT %. He makes some freshman mistakes, but not a lot, really values the ball, coachable like elite coachable, high motor, great rebounder, good passer, great intangibles, great defender. Not sure how much his shot will improve, but for a non-scorer (and I admit that's a pretty big knock) he plays within himself. He'll drive if it's available, but doesn't force it, and can get an occasional bucket on the offensive glass. I give him a lot of credit for adapting --I was not expecting Ty or PG by committee to work as well as it has.
 
#83      

Ga65

G
Ga65
Calvin said:
I kinda think of Ty as a freshman, even though he's a soph, due to having to move positions to play PG. If you think of him that way, he's pretty good despite the shooting/FT %. He makes some freshman mistakes, but not a lot, really values the ball, coachable like elite coachable, high motor, great rebounder, good passer, great intangibles, great defender. Not sure how much his shot will improve, but for a non-scorer (and I admit that's a pretty big knock) he plays within himself. He'll drive if it's available, but doesn't force it, and can get an occasional bucket on the offensive glass. I give him a lot of credit for adapting --I was not expecting Ty or PG by committee to work as well as it has.
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Has improved his ball handling skills where he is fine one on one pressure. Size enables him to pass out of double teams.
 
#84      

Emerson Bigguns

Emerson Bigguns
Emerson Bigguns
RML said:
Saving them for Purdue? Dain's probably going to be really important there.
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Maybe... I don't think Dain presents a lot of problems for Edey. He wants to play under the basket. So does Dain. Hawkins and Amani to a lesser extent can draw him out. If Dain gets a bunch of minutes, it's probably because Hawkins is in foul trouble. (They don't play well together) The big guy is going to get his regardless.
The key to beating Purdue is to limit the guards. We are going to have to be quick to do that.
 
#85      

skyIdub

skyIdub
Winged Warrior
skyIdub
I mean, I'd love to see Dain breakout and give a solid 12-15mpg for this team because we will definitely need it in B1G play. Hopefully he realizes his role like everyone else on the team has seemed to buy in to theirs. That's the best thing he could do both for himself and for the team...whether or not he stays or portals.

If he could somehow get to 10ppg and 6 reb per game, that is going to be huge because it will mostly be put backs off of offensive rebounds. They just aren't running that many plays to him.

He needs to up his commitment level and accept his role. I don't know if we beat Purdue without 12-15 really good minutes (and hard fouls) from Dain.
If I'm coaching, I'm telling him to lean on Edey hard and then run sprints back. That's how we beat Edey IMO. CoHawk takes him away from the paint, Dain abuses him and makes him run back on D.
 
#86      

PtGd

P
PtGd
skyIdub said:
I mean, I'd love to see Dain breakout and give a solid 12-15mpg for this team because we will definitely need it in B1G play. Hopefully he realizes his role like everyone else on the team has seemed to buy in to theirs. That's the best thing he could do both for himself and for the team...whether or not he stays or portals.

If he could somehow get to 10ppg and 6 reb per game, that is going to be huge because it will mostly be put backs off of offensive rebounds. They just aren't running that many plays to him.

He needs to up his commitment level and accept his role. I don't know if we beat Purdue without 12-15 really good minutes (and hard fouls) from Dain.
If I'm coaching, I'm telling him to lean on Edey hard and then run sprints back. That's how we beat Edey IMO. CoHawk takes him away from the paint, Dain abuses him and makes him run back on D.
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Good summary Sky. I'd love to see it work out that way.
 
#88      

LocalChief505

LocalChief505
LocalChief505
skyIdub said:
I mean, I'd love to see Dain breakout and give a solid 12-15mpg for this team because we will definitely need it in B1G play. Hopefully he realizes his role like everyone else on the team has seemed to buy in to theirs. That's the best thing he could do both for himself and for the team...whether or not he stays or portals.

If he could somehow get to 10ppg and 6 reb per game, that is going to be huge because it will mostly be put backs off of offensive rebounds. They just aren't running that many plays to him.

He needs to up his commitment level and accept his role. I don't know if we beat Purdue without 12-15 really good minutes (and hard fouls) from Dain.
If I'm coaching, I'm telling him to lean on Edey hard and then run sprints back. That's how we beat Edey IMO. CoHawk takes him away from the paint, Dain abuses him and makes him run back on D.
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Keep the ball high when he gets touches and stop setting moving screens at the top of the key and heā€™ll play... His mistakes are eye roll worthy at this point. Very predictable player. BUT has the skills to be a very productive. Just do better, Dain.
 
#90      

Ga65

G
Ga65
Emerson Bigguns said:
Maybe... I don't think Dain presents a lot of problems for Edey. He wants to play under the basket. So does Dain. Hawkins and Amani to a lesser extent can draw him out. If Dain gets a bunch of minutes, it's probably because Hawkins is in foul trouble. (They don't play well together) The big guy is going to get his regardless.
The key to beating Purdue is to limit the guards. We are going to have to be quick to do that.
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Does anyone match up better? Ty and TJ best defensive pair in BIG I think. Itā€™s not only stopping their scoring but making it tough for them to pass, particularly Smith. No one will stop Edey from scoring if he is receiving the ball close to the rim. Edey will get a bunch just off of offensive rebounds. Need for them to have an off night shooting threes. T and T a recipe for an off night.
 
#92      

Chief1976

C
Chief1976
Welp, this is going to be very interesting to see the maturity of this team going forward.
Starts now with a team they ā€œshouldā€ handle but weird emotions and all who knows?
 
#93      

Emerson Bigguns

Emerson Bigguns
Emerson Bigguns
blife said:
Time for Cohawk, Q, Marcus to step up. Need a leader to hold this team together thru this.
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You've got to think the guys were aware of the allegations, thus the possibility of playing w/o him... Had to be hard to keep this thing completely under wraps for this long. Obviously, the charges are a new development. I'd wager the team is less shocked than the fans.

There are still a lot of "old" guys on this team. This is going to be a big game for these guys to figure out how to play w/o an All-American on the floor most of the game. I'm glad they at least have one chance to tune this up before the conference meat grinder.
 
#94      

Chief1976

C
Chief1976
Emerson Bigguns said:
You've got to think the guys were aware of the allegations, thus the possibility of playing w/o him... Had to be hard to keep this thing completely under wraps for this long. Obviously, the charges are a new development. I'd wager the team is less shocked than the fans.

There are still a lot of "old" guys on this team. This is going to be a big game for these guys to figure out how to play w/o an All-American on the floor most of the game. I'm glad they at least have one chance to tune this up before the conference meat grinder.
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I suppose just play as the best team you can together. Plenty of good pieces to still have a great year.
 
#96      

Ransom Stoddard

Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
Bloomington, IL
Ransom Stoddard
The staff just needs to consistently refer to tomorrow's opponent as Hunter Dickenson and the team will be more than fired up.
 
#97      

Dbell1981

D
Decatur, IL
Dbell1981
Yeah, im guessing its gonna be Goode. We'll see. I wonder where Moretti is on healing up.
 
#99      

ginabackes00

G
CrazedUIFan
ginabackes00
It's going to take multiple people stepping up, but the leadership on the floor needs to ride with Domask, Goode, and Hawkins
 
#100      

DeonThomas

DeonThomas
South Carolina
DeonThomas
Speculating we start with:

G Rodgers - 30 min
G Harmon - 25 min
F Domask - 30 min
F Guerrier - 27 min
C Hawkins - 30 min

And we then substitute liberally with all four of:

Dainja - 15 min
DGL - 15 min
Hansberry - 15 min
Goode - 18 min
 
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