Pregame: Illinois vs Iowa/Ohio State

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#78      
Not sure about that. The First Four is supposed to be the last 4 at-larges and last 4 AQs. Iowa/OSU would be neither of those, if they won the BTT.
Wouldn't they be an automatic qualifier? And even if that is meant for a non P6 conference, it would be easy enough to just slot them with the last power at-large, since they would be stealing one of their spots anyway.
 
#79      
But they could do it if Iowa, for example, were to make the championship?
They'd swap Iowa with their last team in in that case. The other posters have it right- the selection committee on numerous occasions have said that the BTT Finals just isn't considered for seeding. Basically for the Finals to count, you'd need the selection committee to discuss the BTT Semifinals results first thing in the morning on selection sunday since those games finished late on saturday, discuss all of the other major conference finals results, agree on a bracket, and then they'd need to have to make and agree on up to 2 additional alternate brackets considering a win or loss for either B10 team, then make sure they don't screw up the correct one of 3 brackets in the less than 30 minutes between the end of that BTT Championship game and the Selection Show. Just not going to happen unless it is the simplest upon simplest of moves (like swapping in an AQ for a last team in). Even swapping 2 B10 teams in the same geographic pod (theoretically easy i.e. worst 2 seed/best 3 seed) might not happen.

BTT Finals aren't counted because it's a complete time and logistical nightmare to do so. What there have been conflicting reports on in terms of how much they're actually counted are the Saturday results, so BTT Semis, and other major conference Finals. Some members have said there are small changes resulting from that, others have said it's just too close to the deadline and don't have much weight as teams have already played 30+ games at that point anyways. Getting a whole group of people to agree on something like seeding in under 12 hours is extremely difficult and that's what you basically have if you include the Saturday games. Having them agree on alternate brackets as well? Just not feasible. So the B10 just needs to decide what matters more: Ending the tourney on Saturday like everyone else, or get that giant ratings bonanza as everyone and their mom tunes in right before the selection show. Easy choice in my opinion and the B10 is making the right one.
 
#80      
This seems like such an easy and obvious solution. How could you not factor in a win against one of the top teams in the country? Sometimes it seems like the committee is just being stubborn by ignoring that game.

And honestly, if we were to win that game, I think we'd be a pretty clear 3 seed, so by ignoring that outcome, they would be screwing over everyone on our side of the bracket who would essentially have to play a 3 seed instead of a 4. The ripple effect of ignoring the BTT championship extends beyond just Illinois's seed.
I agree not really saying anything would happen but wouldn't exactly be thrilled to be a fan of the 1 seed that gets placed on the same side of a bracket as a top 8ish KP team that just beat another 1 seed.

Though of course the Illini got a Loyola team that I believe was like a top 12 KP team in the 2nd round and Wichita st got that absurdly talented Kentucky team in the 2nd round in what has to me the most under seeded team I can remember.
 
#81      
Wouldn't they be an automatic qualifier? And even if that is meant for a non P6 conference, it would be easy enough to just slot them with the last power at-large, since they would be stealing one of their spots anyway.

Edit for better clarity - yes, they would be an AQ, but they wouldn't be one of the last four AQs. Nor would they be one of the last four at-larges (which are defined as not AQs).

So instead of taking a First Four spot from an at-large, they'd most likely get a 12 seed, near the top of the non-power AQ list. This would then slide the First Four at large spots up one - bumping the last team in from the tourney altogether, and moving the "fifth team in" into the First Four.
 
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#82      
We can put the debate to rest when we see how it impacts the committee after beating Purdue in the final and our seed line doesn’t move. Still would mean a whole lot to get that elusive Q1A this year for everyone’s mindset given all the talk that we can beat anyone but are lacking against those top 10 marquee teams in the W column.
 
#83      
FWIW, Ohio State is #54 in the NET Rankings, and Iowa is #60. If OSU beats Iowa handily on Thursday, is that enough for them to sneak into the top 50 and be a Quad 1 win on a neutral court?? Even if they did sneak in, would a loss to us drop them back out?

Either way, we are guaranteed another Quad 2 opportunity Friday, so we need that win! Beating either one of them would improve our Q1/Q2 record to 12-7. Then a likely matchup with #37 Nebraska, which is a chance to get our 13th Q1/Q2 win and our sixth Quad 1 win. Get two wins for our NCAA Tournament seeding prospects, and we play with house money on Sunday - lose and we move on to the Big Dance, win and we hang a banner!
 
#84      
They'd swap Iowa with their last team in in that case. The other posters have it right- the selection committee on numerous occasions have said that the BTT Finals just isn't considered for seeding. Basically for the Finals to count, you'd need the selection committee to discuss the BTT Semifinals results first thing in the morning on selection sunday since those games finished late on saturday, discuss all of the other major conference finals results, agree on a bracket, and then they'd need to have to make and agree on up to 2 additional alternate brackets considering a win or loss for either B10 team, then make sure they don't screw up the correct one of 3 brackets in the less than 30 minutes between the end of that BTT Championship game and the Selection Show. Just not going to happen unless it is the simplest upon simplest of moves (like swapping in an AQ for a last team in). Even swapping 2 B10 teams in the same geographic pod (theoretically easy i.e. worst 2 seed/best 3 seed) might not happen.

BTT Finals aren't counted because it's a complete time and logistical nightmare to do so. What there have been conflicting reports on in terms of how much they're actually counted are the Saturday results, so BTT Semis, and other major conference Finals. Some members have said there are small changes resulting from that, others have said it's just too close to the deadline and don't have much weight as teams have already played 30+ games at that point anyways. Getting a whole group of people to agree on something like seeding in under 12 hours is extremely difficult and that's what you basically have if you include the Saturday games. Having them agree on alternate brackets as well? Just not feasible. So the B10 just needs to decide what matters more: Ending the tourney on Saturday like everyone else, or get that giant ratings bonanza as everyone and their mom tunes in right before the selection show. Easy choice in my opinion and the B10 is making the right one.
Yeah, I understand how it currently works. What I'm saying is, not preparing for this type of contingency is lazy. In the scenario we're discussing, they'd be putting out a bad bracket just because they haven't put in the time to do an alt bracket. Why not be thorough and get it right?

Agree to a bracket on Friday. Update the bracket on Saturday if Friday produces any surprising results. Update the bracket Sunday morning if Saturday produces any surprising results and then create alt brackets if necessary. And it would only be necessary if there are teams playing on Sunday afternoon that are on the border of a seed line.

Net net: I just don't buy the excuse that it's logistically impossible to account for Sunday's results.
 
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#85      
The crazy thing is that if Ohio State handles Iowa with relative ease, it is very possible that this game could become a Quad 1 opportunity (Ohio State jumped 6 spots to 54 in most recent NET after a dominating road win in Piscataway). Iowa slipped to 60, so I see no way it becomes a Quad 1 game against Iowa (assuming that Illini win on Friday).
 
#86      
I want to dominate teams in BTT. Hold opponents below 40% shooting (IA shot 35%) , outrebound people by 17 (like at IA). Win the BTT and go into the NCAA red hot.

If we can beat Purdue nobody will want to face us in the big dance.


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#87      
Fair. I just don't think there's a ton of upside to the two immediate matchups in front of us (and the third doesn't count). It's possible we look dominant on Friday and Saturday and a couple teams ahead of us lay some eggs. Seems like a longshot but we can hope!

As for the 1 we get matched up with, I don't think we'll get paired with Purdue or Tennessee since we've played both already. So that leaves Uconn or Houston. Or, best case, AZ bumps TN and as the best 4, we get to play AZ.

And I don't do curses or conspiracies but Auburn slipping to a 5 in our bracket would be so Illinois. Another top 10 kenpom team in the second round, against a rival coach no less.
Talk here about which 1 seed we will play is a bit cart ahead of the horse…IMHO.
 
#88      
Generally, the conference tournaments have little bearing on NCAA seeding.

However, do you really see a 26-8 Illini as a 4? I don't. Regardless of who they would beat in the final, if we go 3-0 this week, I'm pretty sure we're a 3.
 
#89      
I’m so happy we avoid Maryland, they were my biggest concern based on how we play against them. Bummer we couldn’t get Wisconsin as they would be a nice draw with a Q1 chance. No other teams besides Purdue honestly stand out. Yes OSU and Indiana are hot but losing to either would be up there as one of the bigger let downs this season imo.
 
#90      
That's nice and all, Andy, but OSU still scares the bejeesus outta me. I'll be shocked it Iowa wins that game.
Is OSU scares you, guessing that you don't think that our stay will be long in the NCAA Tournament? There's not one team on our side of the bracket in the conference tournament that we should not beat. Not one.
 
#93      
Talk here about which 1 seed we will play is a bit cart ahead of the horse…IMHO.
Conversation isn't about which one seed we will play. It's about which one seed would be in our part of the bracket. Which is a pretty fundamental part of bracketology discussions. (Although this probably isn't the right thread for it. )
 
#94      
Conversation isn't about which one seed we will play. It's about which one seed would be in our part of the bracket. Which is a pretty fundamental part of bracketology discussions. (Although this probably isn't the right thread for it. )
Just hoping that we play well enough early on to get a chance against a one seed….whomever that may be.
 
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#95      
I want to dominate teams in BTT. Hold opponents below 40% shooting (IA shot 35%) , outrebound people by 17 (like at IA). Win the BTT and go into the NCAA red hot.

If we can beat Purdue nobody will want to face us in the big dance.


View attachment 32040
I could not agree with this more! Post-COVID, a narrative has developed that the teams who make it to Sunday in the BTT are just so exhausted and thus underperform expectations in the NCAA Tournament. However, that really is only a recent problem. Historically, these are top 6 seeds who have made it to Sunday in the BTT, and it is a lot more nuanced:

1998
Michigan*** (vacated champion) - #3 seed. Made Second Round.
Purdue (runner up) - #2 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

1999
Michigan State (champion) - #1 seed. Made Final Four.

2000
Michigan State (champion) - #1 seed. Won National Championship.
Illinois (runner up) - #4 seed. Made Second Round.

2001
Indiana (runner up) - #4 seed. Lost in First Round.

2002
Ohio State**** (vacated champion) - #4 seed. Made Second Round.

2003
Illinois (champion) - #4 seed. Made Second Round.

2004
Wisconsin (champion) - #6 seed. Made Second Round.
Illinois (runner up) - #5 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2005
Illinois (champion) - #1 seed. Made National Championship Game.
Wisconsin (runner up) - #6 seed. Made Elite Eight.

2006
Iowa (champion) - #3 seed. Lost in First Round.
Ohio State (runner up) - Made Second Round.

2007
Ohio State (champion) - #1 seed. Made National Championship Game.
Wisconsin (runner up) - #2 seed. Made Second Round.

2008
Wisconsin (champion) - #3 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2009
Purdue (champion) - #5 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2010
Ohio State (champion) - #2 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2011
Ohio State (champion) - #1 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2012
Michigan State (champion) - #1 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.
Ohio State (runner up) - #2 seed. Made Final Four.

2013
Ohio State (champion) - #2 seed. Made Elite Eight.
Wisconsin (runner up) - #5 seed. Lost in First Round.

2014
Michigan State (champion) - #4 seed. Made Elite Eight.
Michigan (runner up) - #2 seed. Made Elite Eight.

2015
Wisconsin (champion) - #1 seed. Made National Championship Game.

2016
Michigan State (champion) - #2 seed. Lost in First Round.
Purdue (runner up) - #5 seed. Lost in First Round.

2018
Michigan (champion) - #3 seed. Made National Championship Game.
Purdue (runner up) - #2 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2019
Michigan State (champion) - #2 seed. Made Final Four.
Michigan (runner up) - #2 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2021
Illinois (champion) - #1 seed. Made Second Round.
Ohio State (runner up) - #2 seed. Lost in First Round.

2022
Iowa (champion) - #5 seed. Lost in First Round.
Purdue (runner up) - #3 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2023
Purdue (champion) - #1 seed. Lost in First Round.

While there appear to be some cases where a team might have been tired (2021 Illini...), it seems the BTT can just as easily serve as a testing ground for an NCAA Tournament atmosphere where a team can get hot and feel confident at just the right time to go on a run!
 
#96      
I could not agree with this more! Post-COVID, a narrative has developed that the teams who make it to Sunday in the BTT are just so exhausted and thus underperform expectations in the NCAA Tournament. However, that really is only a recent problem. Historically, these are top 6 seeds who have made it to Sunday in the BTT, and it is a lot more nuanced:

1998
Michigan*** (vacated champion) - #3 seed. Made Second Round.
Purdue (runner up) - #2 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

1999
Michigan State (champion) - #1 seed. Made Final Four.

2000
Michigan State (champion) - #1 seed. Won National Championship.
Illinois (runner up) - #4 seed. Made Second Round.

2001
Indiana (runner up) - #4 seed. Lost in First Round.

2002
Ohio State**** (vacated champion) - #4 seed. Made Second Round.

2003
Illinois (champion) - #4 seed. Made Second Round.

2004
Wisconsin (champion) - #6 seed. Made Second Round.
Illinois (runner up) - #5 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2005
Illinois (champion) - #1 seed. Made National Championship Game.
Wisconsin (runner up) - #6 seed. Made Elite Eight.

2006
Iowa (champion) - #3 seed. Lost in First Round.
Ohio State (runner up) - Made Second Round.

2007
Ohio State (champion) - #1 seed. Made National Championship Game.
Wisconsin (runner up) - #2 seed. Made Second Round.

2008
Wisconsin (champion) - #3 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2009
Purdue (champion) - #5 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2010
Ohio State (champion) - #2 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2011
Ohio State (champion) - #1 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2012
Michigan State (champion) - #1 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.
Ohio State (runner up) - #2 seed. Made Final Four.

2013
Ohio State (champion) - #2 seed. Made Elite Eight.
Wisconsin (runner up) - #5 seed. Lost in First Round.

2014
Michigan State (champion) - #4 seed. Made Elite Eight.
Michigan (runner up) - #2 seed. Made Elite Eight.

2015
Wisconsin (champion) - #1 seed. Made National Championship Game.

2016
Michigan State (champion) - #2 seed. Lost in First Round.
Purdue (runner up) - #5 seed. Lost in First Round.

2018
Michigan (champion) - #3 seed. Made National Championship Game.
Purdue (runner up) - #2 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2019
Michigan State (champion) - #2 seed. Made Final Four.
Michigan (runner up) - #2 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2021
Illinois (champion) - #1 seed. Made Second Round.
Ohio State (runner up) - #2 seed. Lost in First Round.

2022
Iowa (champion) - #5 seed. Lost in First Round.
Purdue (runner up) - #3 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2023
Purdue (champion) - #1 seed. Lost in First Round.

While there appear to be some cases where a team might have been tired (2021 Illini...), it seems the BTT can just as easily serve as a testing ground for an NCAA Tournament atmosphere where a team can get hot and feel confident at just the right time to go on a run!
Agree. I think it depends on your team and the games you play. A team that can go 10 deep playing 3 games in 3 days should be able to spilt minutes

A team that has a 7 man rotation and a star who plays 40 minutes might not be rested by Thursday

For PU Edey looks like he has a sore back/leg I would want him to be healthy
 
#98      
I could not agree with this more! Post-COVID, a narrative has developed that the teams who make it to Sunday in the BTT are just so exhausted and thus underperform expectations in the NCAA Tournament. However, that really is only a recent problem. Historically, these are top 6 seeds who have made it to Sunday in the BTT, and it is a lot more nuanced:

1998
Michigan*** (vacated champion) - #3 seed. Made Second Round.
Purdue (runner up) - #2 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

1999
Michigan State (champion) - #1 seed. Made Final Four.

2000
Michigan State (champion) - #1 seed. Won National Championship.
Illinois (runner up) - #4 seed. Made Second Round.

2001
Indiana (runner up) - #4 seed. Lost in First Round.

2002
Ohio State**** (vacated champion) - #4 seed. Made Second Round.

2003
Illinois (champion) - #4 seed. Made Second Round.

2004
Wisconsin (champion) - #6 seed. Made Second Round.
Illinois (runner up) - #5 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2005
Illinois (champion) - #1 seed. Made National Championship Game.
Wisconsin (runner up) - #6 seed. Made Elite Eight.

2006
Iowa (champion) - #3 seed. Lost in First Round.
Ohio State (runner up) - Made Second Round.

2007
Ohio State (champion) - #1 seed. Made National Championship Game.
Wisconsin (runner up) - #2 seed. Made Second Round.

2008
Wisconsin (champion) - #3 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2009
Purdue (champion) - #5 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2010
Ohio State (champion) - #2 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2011
Ohio State (champion) - #1 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2012
Michigan State (champion) - #1 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.
Ohio State (runner up) - #2 seed. Made Final Four.

2013
Ohio State (champion) - #2 seed. Made Elite Eight.
Wisconsin (runner up) - #5 seed. Lost in First Round.

2014
Michigan State (champion) - #4 seed. Made Elite Eight.
Michigan (runner up) - #2 seed. Made Elite Eight.

2015
Wisconsin (champion) - #1 seed. Made National Championship Game.

2016
Michigan State (champion) - #2 seed. Lost in First Round.
Purdue (runner up) - #5 seed. Lost in First Round.

2018
Michigan (champion) - #3 seed. Made National Championship Game.
Purdue (runner up) - #2 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2019
Michigan State (champion) - #2 seed. Made Final Four.
Michigan (runner up) - #2 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2021
Illinois (champion) - #1 seed. Made Second Round.
Ohio State (runner up) - #2 seed. Lost in First Round.

2022
Iowa (champion) - #5 seed. Lost in First Round.
Purdue (runner up) - #3 seed. Made Sweet Sixteen.

2023
Purdue (champion) - #1 seed. Lost in First Round.

While there appear to be some cases where a team might have been tired (2021 Illini...), it seems the BTT can just as easily serve as a testing ground for an NCAA Tournament atmosphere where a team can get hot and feel confident at just the right time to go on a run!
I don't think the 21 Illini were tired. I just think they had some flaws and a very good Loyola team outplayed, outworked, and out coached them.

It has been a while and I don't really want to rewatch the game but offensively Loyola just consistent got good looks off of backdoor cutting and handoffs plus Krutwig cooked Kofi. The they just pressured the Illini all game and anytime the Illini started to chip away at the lead Ayo or Curbelo turned the ball over.
 
#100      
I don't think the 21 Illini were tired. I just think they had some flaws and a very good Loyola team outplayed, outworked, and out coached them.

It has been a while and I don't really want to rewatch the game but offensively Loyola just consistent got good looks off of backdoor cutting and handoffs plus Krutwig cooked Kofi. The they just pressured the Illini all game and anytime the Illini started to chip away at the lead Ayo or Curbelo turned the ball over.
Yup. We didn't look tired, we looked like we hadn't scouted them. They carved us up and Krutwig earned that win for them.
IIRC there were also some early foul problems for us but I don't want to rewatch it either.
 
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