I see what you're saying, but I think you're putting these lead changes in a vacuum. If the Illini are losing 6-0 to Average Talent Opponent Team, there's a 62% chance they will lose the game. Like you said, those odds are better than if they're losing 20-14 and so on, but a comeback isn't guaranteed.
In other words, if you save a good player on the bench because you look at this and say you'd rather be losing 6-0 than 20-14, you're assuming throwing in that good player will enable you to overcome the deficit, which 62% of the time doesn't happen.