Pregame: Illinois vs Jackson State, Monday, November 3rd, 7:30pm CT, BTN

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#128      
Good My question would be where Ty fits in if he decides to return.
good question GIF
 
#134      
Does Mirk start??:cool:
Well, he started the exhibition game, so I would say that is probably a good sign. But that may have been due to injuries and recovery from tonsillitis. Also, it just seems like the whole question of who is starting is kind of moot at this point. Or maybe it is in flux (I may not be using that word properly). And that is because Illinois has so many players (well, relatively speaking) out or not playing at full speed. I don’t know if we will know the “official” starting line-up until the Texas Tech game, and even then, only if everyone is healthy and ready to go, and if there aren’t any more injuries or illnesses from now until then. Fingers crossed.
 
#135      
If healthy, Boswell, Stojakovich, and probably Tomi will play 30+ min/game. Most coaches, including Underwood, want their best players on the court as much as possible.
I keep going back and forth on the question of who will get meaningful minutes. Historically, you are correct. BU will play the best, and they will get the most minutes. But, for example's sake, let’s say the starting line-up will be KB, MP, TI, BH, and AS. Considering how much we have learned about KW, how do you keep him off the floor? Or Mirk? Or Big Z or not give them meaningful minutes? And I think Jake may get some decent minutes (though I am reconsidering my earlier prognostications of how many minutes to less than I thought). So those are 8 players who all have similar skills and equal abilities. I mean, supposedly, TI has strengths that Big Z doesn’t and vice versa, same with Mirk and Ben. So, really, I don’t know. It just seems that those 8 deserve approximately equal time on the floor, although the starters will probably play more. But the discrepancy in the number of minutes between the starters and the 3 off the bench may not be as great as in the past.
 
#136      
If healthy, Boswell, Stojakovich, and probably Tomi will play 30+ min/game. Most coaches, including Underwood, want their best players on the court as much as possible.

Agreed, I have kind of narrowed the season down to this:

Boswell, Stojakovich, And Tomi are your floor. Those 3 if healthy make us a top 10-20 team on their own, with just average production from everyone else.

Cracking the top 10 and being in the discussion for a B1G Championship and Final 4 all depends on those other pieces and if Brad can find the right times to play the right players/lineups.

Boswell, Stojakovich, and Tomi are similar to TSJ, Domask, and Coleman IMO. Not in play style, of course, but they will carry the bulk of production almost every night night. But that team fell short after those 3. Quincy, Ty, Harmon, etc. were good role players but none of them were capable of completely changing a game.

This year I really think the sky is the limit because we have the potential for Mirk, Petrovic, and/or Wagler to be a game changer and it could be someone different each game.
 
#137      
This is our first of 6 cupcakes. Here are their rankings on Torvik.

Jackson St - 187
FGCU - 162
Colgate - 256
LIU - 270
UTRGV - 266
Southern - 173

That's an average of 219. Last year our average cupcake ranking was 282 FWIW. I wouldn't be surprised if either this one or the FGCU game is a clunker. Last season we only beat #182 Oakland by 12 and it was a 3 pt game early in the second half.
 
#138      
as a current fgcu student, i dont see how their (our? idk not an fgcu basketball fan) roster even has a chance to compete. their center is going to get dragged through the dirt by tomi and big z and they dont have any depth to back him up. guard play isnt any better. they lost some dudes last year to graduation and pat chambers didnt really care to fill those gaps back in
 
#139      
This is our first of 6 cupcakes. Here are their rankings on Torvik.

Jackson St - 187
FGCU - 162
Colgate - 256
LIU - 270
UTRGV - 266
Southern - 173

That's an average of 219. Last year our average cupcake ranking was 282 FWIW. I wouldn't be surprised if either this one or the FGCU game is a clunker. Last season we only beat #182 Oakland by 12 and it was a 3 pt game early in the second half.
For 2 years in a row, we had close games against Oakland teams that killed us with their "amoeba" zone. We struggled against Oakland before going to play Marquette in 2023 and struggled against Oakland before playing Alabama last year.

I have a fun theory that Brad Underwood is good friends with Greg Kampe and secretly feeds him information about our offenses so that the Oakland games would be a true gut-punch tune-ups before real tests. They aren't playing this year because one more funky game against an Oakland team would start to raise eyebrows (we also lost to both Marquette and Alabama so maybe it didn't work as intended).

I have nothing to substantiate this and there is probably a much more practical reason to the funkiness with these games, considering the run that 2023-2024 Oakland team made.
 
#142      
as a current fgcu student, i dont see how their (our? idk not an fgcu basketball fan) roster even has a chance to compete. their center is going to get dragged through the dirt by tomi and big z and they dont have any depth to back him up. guard play isnt any better. they lost some dudes last year to graduation and pat chambers didnt really care to fill those gaps back in
Shemar Moore Swat GIF by CBS
 
#149      
Wagler is going to have games where he doesn't pop off the page and games where he does. He is a very composed team player and makes the right play. Very rare for a freshman. Also, his defense is an improvement from where Will was last year.
This is what I always tell players when they're trying out. Idc how much they can score, how fast they are, or how high they jump. I care that they can make the right play at the right time every time. Other characteristics make it easier for you to make the right play, or change what the right play is based on individual skillsets, but making the wrong play is EXTREMELY obvious when coaches are evaluating.
 
#150      
I see what you're saying, but I think you're putting these lead changes in a vacuum. If the Illini are losing 6-0 to Average Talent Opponent Team, there's a 62% chance they will lose the game. Like you said, those odds are better than if they're losing 20-14 and so on, but a comeback isn't guaranteed.

In other words, if you save a good player on the bench because you look at this and say you'd rather be losing 6-0 than 20-14, you're assuming throwing in that good player will enable you to overcome the deficit, which 62% of the time doesn't happen.
According to KenPom that 6 point difference reaches that 60+ percent range with even opponents after the first ten minutes. Before that the variance is too high.
 
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