Pregame: Illinois vs Minnesota, Wednesday, February 28th, 8:00pm CT, BTN

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#126      
It hasn't been good I will 100% agree with that. I do think there were some signs of life in the Iowa game, need to see more going forward

My question is who proposed switching 1-4? And who decided to stick with it so long and who decided to make the change to keeping matchups vs Iowa?

Seemed like switch everything caused us a lot of problems last year. I realize we have more of a veteran squad so maybe the assumption was we could execute better. And I guess we have but it hasn’t been working well really since January 1.
 
#127      
2nd half of Iowa I thought the defense showed promise. With a high level offense, we benefit more from high possession games with pace, which naturally leads to more scoring. That's not to say there has been some defensive blunders the past 2 months...but Iowa hit some tough middies early. The scheme played out with Iowa not being able to sustain for 40 mins
 
#128      
2nd half of Iowa I thought the defense showed promise. With a high level offense, we benefit more from high possession games with pace, which naturally leads to more scoring. That's not to say there has been some defensive blunders the past 2 months...but Iowa hit some tough middies early. The scheme played out with Iowa not being able to sustain for 40 mins
Yep. Have watched a lot of Iowa this year, and they have really not come close to making that many tough shots in a game this year
 
#130      
Our defense is predicated on forcing a lot of contested midrange shots, and the trouble is, that fits into what Iowa wants to do and is used to doing to an unusual degree
They don't mind doing it because they usually get way better looks than they were. Defense still was not amazing, but they were making some heavily contested shots which you have to live with
 
#131      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
it's not hyperbole to say this might be the worst Illinois defense of our basketball viewing lifetimes.
Both as a statistical matter and a feeling of the games matter, I think you're just failing to remember what a layup line we were in BU's first two years. The single most dunked-on team I have ever seen at any level of basketball as the SFA system failed to translate to the Big Ten.

Then in 2016 we were pathetic at both ends.

To be 62nd in defense per KenPom is pretty bad, but I think people are blowing the opposing point totals (which are an artifact of the pace we play at) way out of proportion.

This is a run and gun team with a bad tendency to make the game too comfortable for the opponent, but c'mon man, we would all take this a thousand times over the many "tough guarding but can't hit water from a boat offensively" teams we've had just from a watchability perspective, let alone this one being a much better overall basketball team.

#62 defense per KenPom.

Here are some offenses we've had:

2006-07 - #116
2007-08 - #111
2008-09 - #104
2009-10 - #73
2011-12 - #145
2013-14 - #146
2014-15 - #91
2015-16 - #142
2016-17 - #123
2017-18 - #86
2018-19 - #83
 
#133      
Both as a statistical matter and a feeling of the games matter, I think you're just failing to remember what a layup line we were in BU's first two years. The single most dunked-on team I have ever seen at any level of basketball as the SFA system failed to translate to the Big Ten.

Then in 2016 we were pathetic at both ends.

To be 62nd in defense per KenPom is pretty bad, but I think people are blowing the opposing point totals (which are an artifact of the pace we play at) way out of proportion.

This is a run and gun team with a bad tendency to make the game too comfortable for the opponent, but c'mon man, we would all take this a thousand times over the many "tough guarding but can't hit water from a boat offensively" teams we've had just from a watchability perspective, let alone this one being a much better overall basketball team.

#62 defense per KenPom.

Here are some offenses we've had:

2006-07 - #116
2007-08 - #111
2008-09 - #104
2009-10 - #73
2011-12 - #145
2013-14 - #146
2014-15 - #91
2015-16 - #142
2016-17 - #123
2017-18 - #86
2018-19 - #83
Did you read the rest of my post? I mentioned that this is not THE worst statistically. Yes, I believe the first two teams BU inherited and maybe one of Groce's teams were worse. But they were woefully out of their depths from a personnel standpoint so that was kind of just par for the course for them.

The #62 KenPom number is for the full year and not a good representation of our current defense. Looking at how we've played since Jan 1, the ranking is closer to 100.

Obviously, I'm taking the solidly-in-the-tournament team with a generationally great offense over all the bubble and non-tournament teams you listed.

And run and gun teams can have good defenses and good offenses. It's not an either/or type of situation. See Arizona.

What I said must've been surprising to hear. But it's not a hot take. It's literally just information. If you're in your mid thirties or younger, this team since the clock struck 2024 ranks as one of the worst defenses you've watched at Illinois. That's just a fact. I'm sorry. As I pointed out in another thread, that's not necessarily a tournament death sentence. But it doesn't exactly bode well for us either.
 
#135      
I think the team stats match the eye test. Very good offense. Coleman from 3. Marcus Booty ball. TSJ fast break. Inconsistent defense. Gave up 91 points to Penn State, 85 to Iowa.

By comparison
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#136      
Back in the day when I was a youngster in the '70s the BT played games only on Saturdays and on Monday evenings. As I recall that began to change in the late '70s. Before Raycom I recall seeing Ohio State games on local TV ( a Columbus station provided the play-by-play and the color analyst was Bill Hoskett, an all-Big Ten player of theirs from the late '60s.) On Saturday afternoons in the '70s I recall a regional Big Ten Game of the Week on NBC. Can't remember how that changed in the early '80s when I was in jr. high and high school.

I do know that in the mid-'80s when I was home from UIUC for Xmas break I was still watching OSU games on the local station, but don't know if that was Raycom or another broadcaster. (For some reason I recall watching OSU @ NW with friends on a Saturday evening in early January 1986. How's that for Rain Man recall? I can only imagine what a mesmerizing contest that would have been. Ah... looked it up. Sat. Jan 11, 1986. Actually an exciting game: 79-77 Bucks. OSU won the NIT that year. Huh.)

It would be great to find a history of this somewhere online.
I graduated in '85 after a 7 year stint in the AF (I went back on active duty after graduation). I can remember being able to see the beloved only once or sometimes twice a year. That continued from my time at Wright-Patterson, to Anchorage, Alaska when in 2007, the Big Ten Network offered me almost every Illini football and basketball game every year. Imagine the joy it brought my heart to be able to watch the Beloved, even in the many, many, many, many, many - OK, enough many's. I will NEVER take for granted being able to watch Illini Football and Basketball, regardless of the outcome.

Harry Potter No GIF
 
#137      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
The #62 KenPom number is for the full year and not a good representation of our current defense. Looking at how we've played since Jan 1, the ranking is closer to 100.
Is that true? I don't pay for premium KenPom

And run and gun teams can have good defenses and good offenses. It's not an either/or type of situation. See Arizona.
100% true. But what run and gun teams cannot do is hold opponents to Bruce Weber-like scorelines.

this team since the clock struck 2024 ranks as one of the worst defenses you've watched at Illinois.
Comparing a 15 game stretch to full seasons is pretty methodologically shaky. By definition there are 15 game stretches of those seasons that were worse than the final numbers defensively. We definitely went through defensive slumps under Groce.

And then we were DRAMATICALLY worse for two full years. So no, I don't think I will think of this as a singularly bad defense in the history of the program. In fact I would put my money on the final KenPom ranking being higher than it is right now.
 
#138      

lstewart53x3

Scottsdale, Arizona
If we had Wake Forest’s defense (35 in KenPom), we’d be 7 in KenPom with likely ~2 more wins (Penn St. and Michigan St.), which would put us in the top 5 in AP poll and we’d be on pace for a 2-3 seed as a final 4 / elite 8 ceiling type team.

Instead, we’re on pace for a 4-5 seed and if our defense doesn’t improve, we’re a sweet 16 ceiling type team.

The good news is: I still believe the raw pieces for an average (top 30) defense are there. We just have to unlock it over the next few weeks.
 
#140      
I don’t think anyone will argue that the defense has dipped since January 1.

There were some encouraging signs against Iowa. I don’t know basketball analytics too well but I wouldn’t be surprised if Iowa over performed their expected points based on shot quality. Which they are a top ten offensive team who had just come off of 2 quad 1 wins and were playing with a ton of confidence. Not surprising they would take and make a bunch of tough shots.

I just want to see a sustained defensive effort against Minnesota and no lackadaisical play. If we play defense like we did at Iowa and have an even mediocre shooting night we should win this game by 20+.
 
#141      

altgeld88

Arlington, Virginia
I graduated in '85 after a 7 year stint in the AF (I went back on active duty after graduation). I can remember being able to see the beloved only once or sometimes twice a year. That continued from my time at Wright-Patterson, to Anchorage, Alaska when in 2007, the Big Ten Network offered me almost every Illini football and basketball game every year. Imagine the joy it brought my heart to be able to watch the Beloved, even in the many, many, many, many, many - OK, enough many's. I will NEVER take for granted being able to watch Illini Football and Basketball, regardless of the outcome.

Harry Potter No GIF
lol. The youngsters have no idea how spoiled for choice they are. Someone mentioned snow on the telecast. I recall dealing with that via the rabbit ears.
 
#142      
It's really not. Statistically, the performance we've seen from the defense since Jan 1 ranks as either the 3rd or 4th worst since at least 2002.
Why are you comparing a subset of the year to full year stats? Because it doesn't fit your narrative? 2019 our defense was worse. #108 @ 1.013 ppp
 
#143      
Comparing a 15 game stretch to full seasons is pretty methodologically shaky. By definition there are 15 game stretches of those seasons that were worse than the final numbers defensively. We definitely went through defensive slumps under Groce.

And then we were DRAMATICALLY worse for two full years. So no, I don't think I will think of this as a singularly bad defense in the history of the program. In fact I would put my money on the final KenPom ranking being higher than it is right now.
Last thing I'll say and then I'll let it go...for now.

I don't share these stats to be a doomsayer. I pull data when I want to test or validate what I see/feel/think about the team. That way, when I share opinions here and elsewhere, they're at least somewhat informed and hopefully you guys find it interesting too. Just want to be clear that I'm not trying to slice the data to make us look bad. I thought to myself that we've looked abnormally bad on defense the last couple months so I did some research to see if that really is the case.

Using Torvik, and looking only at data from January and February to make it more apples to apples for you, the last two months have been the third worst Jan-Feb stretch of defense since at least 2008.

AdjD rankings from Jan 1 - Feb 29
2018: 176
2016: 110
2024: 109

You don't have to believe the numbers. Really, these numbers don't even matter. What matters is what we do from here onward. But if you're like me and you've found yourself thinking that you can't remember being this bad defensively in conference play, well it's because you blocked 2018 out of your memory but after that, you'd basically be right.

Edit: @fuggles This better?
 
#144      
I graduated in '85 after a 7 year stint in the AF (I went back on active duty after graduation). I can remember being able to see the beloved only once or sometimes twice a year. That continued from my time at Wright-Patterson, to Anchorage, Alaska when in 2007, the Big Ten Network offered me almost every Illini football and basketball game every year. Imagine the joy it brought my heart to be able to watch the Beloved, even in the many, many, many, many, many - OK, enough many's. I will NEVER take for granted being able to watch Illini Football and Basketball, regardless of the outcome.

Harry Potter No GIF
Beavis And Butthead Thank You GIF by Paramount+
 
#148      

IlliniMike_Aurora

Straight outta Champaign
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