Pregame: Illinois vs Rutgers, Saturday, October 30th, 11:00am CT, BTN

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#76      

RedRocksIllini

Morrison, CO
While we certainly had a chance to win those games, if you look at post-game win expectancy, only one of the three, Purdue, is a game we truly should have won.

We had a 66% post game win expectancy against Purdue.

The other two games:

92% in favor of UTSA.
76% in favor of Maryalnd.

Surprisingly, even though we won the Nebraska game, Nebraska had a 59% post game win expectancy.

So even though we had opportunities for more wins, our current record sounds about right.

Against PSU, we had an 86% post game win expectancy. So that game was quite a bit closer than it really should have been.
I'm not the brightest bulb in the string but it seems like post game win expectancy has to be either 0% or 100% depending on what actually happened in the game that you are now post. Apparently hindsight needs glasses.
 
#77      
I'm not the brightest bulb in the string but it seems like post game win expectancy has to be either 0% or 100% depending on what actually happened in the game that you are now post. Apparently hindsight needs glasses.
I think post game expectancy is taking the differences in yardage, turnovers, etc and say if you replayed the exact same game 100 times, how many would you win?

I’m not a huge football guy but the equivalent for basketball would be if you forced a team into taking a ton of contested 2’s but you lost because they made a ridiculous percentage. “On paper” you win that game more times than not.
 
#78      

RedRocksIllini

Morrison, CO
I think post game expectancy is taking the differences in yardage, turnovers, etc and say if you replayed the exact same game 100 times, how many would you win?

I’m not a huge football guy but the equivalent for basketball would be if you forced a team into taking a ton of contested 2’s but you lost because they made a ridiculous percentage. “On paper” you win that game more times than not.
Well, if you replayed the exact same game...

Sorry, just thought the phrase "post game win expectancy" seemed silly at best. And "on paper" makes it sound like somebody is playing the game over and over with Strat-O-Matic.
 
#80      
Man, enough with the “we should be 6-2 or 5-3.” First, no guarantee we would have been successful if we had gone for it on fourth down. But beyond that, it is over and the Illini’s record now until Saturday is 3-5. I get it that people are mad he didn’t go for it, but let’s just move on.
I don't think there's anything wrong with pointing out that we're getting more competitive in games than we've previously been. In Lovie's first 3 seasons we lost a lot of games in total blowout fashion. We've only had 1 multiple possession loss to a conference opponent this year. In Lovie's first few years we had at least 3 a season. We're starting to actually be in almost all of our games. Maybe as Bielma implements his new system and gets his guys in there we start turning close losses into wins and make some bowl games.
 
#81      

DeonThomas

South Carolina
Update

Rutgers -1.5
Seems like the line for a number of our games this season have moved in the direction of the OPPONENT in the days leading up to the game. Rutgers, UVA and PSU all come to mind.
 
#83      

Illinir1

Camdenton, MO
I think ALL the receivers should wear white gloves. Here on out
So I have a question on the glove color thing. I get, and think it's brilliant, that the team was directed to wear blue gloves to match Penn State's blue jerseys. But is there any rule on the color of gloves that a team can wear? If not, would we wear red gloves when playing at Wisconsin, Ohio State Indiana, Rutgers, crimson gloves at Minnesota, purple gloves when at Northwestern, etc. Is a team limited to only wearing their team colors (orange, blue, white in our case) or can we wear any color gloves we choose?
 
#84      

Illinir1

Camdenton, MO
Thinking I probably get influenced too much by dramatic/historic victories on national TV, but I just watched the latest press conference and Bielema sure is a solid football guy.

He understands the nuts and bolts of the game, he's got that raw Butkus-like demeanor, and he's a really effective communicator. He comes off as genuine. Hope he's still our coach in 15 years.
This. Especially a positive after five years of the no emotion, "say nothing" style of our last head coach.
 
#85      
Well, if you replayed the exact same game...

Sorry, just thought the phrase "post game win expectancy" seemed silly at best. And "on paper" makes it sound like somebody is playing the game over and over with Strat-O-Matic.
Who doesn’t wish they had the time to invest in some games of Strat-O-Magic?!

(You youngsters need not respond)
 
#86      
This. Especially a positive after five years of the no emotion, "say nothing" style of our last head coach.
I know it's popular to pile on the last guy, but I really liked Lovie and wanted him to succeed. I really respected that a high-profile coach was willing to come in and try to rescue a dumpster fire program. I respect players that have been willing to come in, believing that they could resurrect this program. I wasn't a fan of BB dumping on Lovie, either. Just do your job. Coaches don't typically come into good situations (except in cases of retirement or maybe a coach moving up to another program because of their success), that's why there was a job opening. I want BB to do well, hasn't been a single coach here that I wanted to fail. But, BB needs to know he hasn't turned the program around yet and the odds aren't necessarily in his favor.
 
#87      
So I have a question on the glove color thing. I get, and think it's brilliant, that the team was directed to wear blue gloves to match Penn State's blue jerseys. But is there any rule on the color of gloves that a team can wear? If not, would we wear red gloves when playing at Wisconsin, Ohio State Indiana, Rutgers, crimson gloves at Minnesota, purple gloves when at Northwestern, etc. Is a team limited to only wearing their team colors (orange, blue, white in our case) or can we wear any color gloves we choose?
I actually thought part of the reason it took Brandon a long time to see Casey was because the PSU unis looked similar to the refs and there was a ref in Casey’s vicinity.
 
#89      

DeonThomas

South Carolina
This. Especially a positive after five years of the no emotion, "say nothing" style of our last head coach.
Agree. While I first and foremost simply want SUCCESS (i.e. a consistent, winning program), I do tend to lean much more toward PJ Fleck than Lovie Smith. Give me some enthusiasm and emotion! Talk to us. Tell us what you're seeing and thinking.

Perhaps Ditka is the best comparison, locally, for BB. Not totally polished, but effective and likable.
 
#90      

DeonThomas

South Carolina
ENCOURAGING SIGN: If you watch today's interview on BTN (Dan posted it on the Home page), Bielema seems to be assertively stating that he already sees signs of this team (the Program) "turning the corner". That coincides with Robert's year 1 comparison of BB to other recent coaches.

I wasn't expecting us to turn any corners until Year 3. Sure hope BB is right!
 
#91      

illini80

Forgottonia
I know it's popular to pile on the last guy, but I really liked Lovie and wanted him to succeed. I really respected that a high-profile coach was willing to come in and try to rescue a dumpster fire program. I respect players that have been willing to come in, believing that they could resurrect this program. I wasn't a fan of BB dumping on Lovie, either. Just do your job. Coaches don't typically come into good situations (except in cases of retirement or maybe a coach moving up to another program because of their success), that's why there was a job opening. I want BB to do well, hasn't been a single coach here that I wanted to fail. But, BB needs to know he hasn't turned the program around yet and the odds aren't necessarily in his favor.
I think most liked the hire of Lovie and wanted him to succeed until he proved that it wasn’t going to work. Then it was time to make the break. I understand how some took BB’s comments as dumping on the last staff. I don’t think that was his intent, but that’s just my opinion and nothing he said wasn’t factually correct. I’m not sure how much of his comments about the direction of the program changing already is directed toward a positive recruiting image and how much is trying to get his team to believe it. Either way, I think it’s the narrative that has to be used. I don’t think he says much that isn’t planned and with a purpose. The o-line comments do seem like an exception to that.
 
#92      

JFGsCoffeeMug

BU:1 Trash cans:0
Chicago
I think most liked the hire of Lovie and wanted him to succeed until he proved that it wasn’t going to work. Then it was time to make the break. I understand how some took BB’s comments as dumping on the last staff. I don’t think that was his intent, but that’s just my opinion and nothing he said wasn’t factually correct. I’m not sure how much of his comments about the direction of the program changing already is directed toward a positive recruiting image and how much is trying to get his team to believe it. Either way, I think it’s the narrative that has to be used. I don’t think he says much that isn’t planned and with a purpose. The o-line comments do seem like an exception to that.
This is where I am as well. Ask a dozen people, and I guarantee there won't be consensus on what constitutes "dumping on the last staff" vs. "evaluating where we are currently as a program and what needs to happen next."

Just a few examples of statements that could divide the camps:
> Our recruiting needs to improve substantially.
> Our player development hasn't been at the level where it needs to be.
> Our team is building a culture of toughness that didn't exist before.
> Veteran players are making mistakes they shouldn't be making at this stage in their collegiate careers.
> Class balance needs to be corrected.
> We need to hold the team to a higher standard.

In his first year, BB has to talk about the situation before he arrived. Starting next year, he can increasingly start using this season as a benchmark for comparison (although one year doesn't necessarily complete the transition between coaching staffs).
 
#94      
Illinois Fighting Illini: 24
Rutgers Whatever Their Nickname Is: 6
 
#98      

pruman91

Paducah, Ky
I think it was strat-o-matic, not magic. Loved that game back in the day!
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This is the game I had.......Loud , players fell over if current to high....But we played it all the time.....1960's
 
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