Pregame: Illinois vs Texas/Xavier

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#302      
Mr. Tibbs
joel mchale pitchfork GIF by NETFLIX

if we lose Friday night, this is real
 
#303      
DeonThomas
From the cheap seats said:
In comparing team statistics among Illinois, Texas and Xavier, these stood out to me:
--The Illini would seem to have a rebounding edge. They are 6th in the nation in rebound margin (+8) and 29th in offensive boards (13). Both Texas and Xavier are barely above break-even with their opponents on rebounds on the season. Xavier averages 8 offensive rebounds a game and Texas 10.
--That rebounding edge is offset some by turnover margin. Texas is at +1.6, Xavier at +1.1...and the Illini are underwater at -2.3. Combining the turnover margin with offensive rebounds, the advantage in possessions for the Illini is reduced from 5 to just 1.6 and is completely wiped out against Texas.
--The X factor, if you will, could be 3-point shooting. We don't want to get into a long-distance contest, especially against Xavier, which is 7th in the nation at 39%. Texas is 72nd at 36%...and the Illini are 315th at 31%. Both Texas and Xavier average about 21 3-point attempts, both in the mid-200s nationally, while the Illini average the 4th-most 3's in the country at (gulp) 30 per game.
--You don't want to foul Xavier. They are 6th in the nation if FT shooting at 79.4%. The Illini are pretty good, too, at almost 76% and Texas at 75%.
--Xavier averages only 2.6 blocks (285th) compared to 4.4 for Texas (59th) and 4.2 for Illinois (68th). Considering that Illinois is 18th in the nation in 2-point FG% (57.3%), it would seem to make sense to attack the paint, especially against Xavier. Texas is 147th in 2-point FG% at 51.8% and Xavier is 165th at 51.3%. It looks like running either team off the 3-point line would make sense.
--Fast-break points is another area of concern for the Illini. Xavier is 9th in the nation, averaging 15 points a game on runouts, fueled by almost 8 steals per game. Texas averages 11.5 (6.3 steals per game). The Illini average only 7.25 and are 350th in the country in steals at 4.4. If the Illini commit turnovers that lead to runouts, that might be hard to overcome.
Xavier has been fairly consistent in terms of big wins & losses. They split with UConn, went 1-2 vs. Marquette (2-point games) and played St. John's to OT in MSG. They did lose to Michigan by 25 points and only split with Georgetown. But they but beat Creighton by 22 after losing by 9.
If anything, Texas may have been as schizophrenic as the Illini this season. They lost big to A&M...and then beat the Aggies in double OT in the SEC Tourney. They beat Kentucky and beat Mizzou by 8...but lost to South Carolina, lost to Arkansas (twice) and Ohio State by 8, and to Alabama 103-80. They lost to Tennessee by 4 and by 5 to Auburn.
I would expect a tight game Friday night. All in all, I'd probably prefer to play Texas.
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Thanks for summarizing!

After reading the pluses/minuses, I tend to also agree with your conclusion.
 
#304      
DeonThomas
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Yeah, I think Texas' recent victory over Texas A&M has a lot of people thinking that maybe their talent is finally starting to gel ... a familiar hypothetical! :ROFLMAO: However, we are only 9 days removed from Texas losing at home to #9 seed Oklahoma on the last day of the season when the Longhorns desperately needed a win. Overall, I would definitely still say we got about as good of draw as we could have expected. If I were Missouri right now, for example, I would be very pissed, lol.

As has been discussed, we can absolutely lose to Texas ... or Xavier. And we can OBVIOUSLY lose to #3 Kentucky. However, look at the #11 and #3 seeds we could have drawn by NET Ranking:

#3 SEEDS
#7 Texas Tech
#9 Iowa State
#14 Kentucky
#15 Wisconsin

#11 SEEDS
#36 North Carolina
#31 VCU
#39 Texas
#45 Xavier
#52 San Diego State
#56 Drake

So we got the "middle of the pack" as far as the teams in our immediate bracket, but the following appears very relevant to me...

(1) #11 Xavier has just ONE Quad 1 win on the year, which is tied with North Carolina for the fewest Quad 1 wins out of the #11 seeds.
(2) Despite a nice win over rival Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament, Texas ended the regular season losing 7 of its final 9 games, and even with the SEC Tournament run, the Longhorns have lost 5 of their last 8.
(3) #3 Kentucky has a key injury, potentially making them more vulnerable.
(4) We get to play our First and (hopefully) Second Round games in front of an Illini-friendly crowd in Milwaukee.
(5) Because we were placed in the Midwest region, as well, we would then move to an equally Illini-friendly crowd in Indianapolis should we make another run to the Second Weekend.

We got the seed most of us wanted, we got the First Weekend location ALL of us wanted, we got the regional location that everyone hoped for and our #11 and #3 draws were far from the most daunting out of the options available. Regardless of what happens later this week, we should be thankful!
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Nicely summarized Fighter!
 
#305      
RIP_Chief_2003
Illinois 16-2 when shooting 27% or better from 3…

TWENTY SEVEN PERCENT!!! The fact that that number seems like a long shot to achieve really says a lot about my nerves entering this tournament.

I fear we will get 3pt happy, shoot 26% from 3 and get bounced early on a buzzer beater by Xavier’s Fremantle.
 
#308      
GoodePodzMelendez
From the cheap seats said:
In comparing team statistics among Illinois, Texas and Xavier, these stood out to me:
--The Illini would seem to have a rebounding edge. They are 6th in the nation in rebound margin (+8) and 29th in offensive boards (13). Both Texas and Xavier are barely above break-even with their opponents on rebounds on the season. Xavier averages 8 offensive rebounds a game and Texas 10.
--That rebounding edge is offset some by turnover margin. Texas is at +1.6, Xavier at +1.1...and the Illini are underwater at -2.3. Combining the turnover margin with offensive rebounds, the advantage in possessions for the Illini is reduced from 5 to just 1.6 and is completely wiped out against Texas.
--The X factor, if you will, could be 3-point shooting. We don't want to get into a long-distance contest, especially against Xavier, which is 7th in the nation at 39%. Texas is 72nd at 36%...and the Illini are 315th at 31%. Both Texas and Xavier average about 21 3-point attempts, both in the mid-200s nationally, while the Illini average the 4th-most 3's in the country at (gulp) 30 per game.
--You don't want to foul Xavier. They are 6th in the nation if FT shooting at 79.4%. The Illini are pretty good, too, at almost 76% and Texas at 75%.
--Xavier averages only 2.6 blocks (285th) compared to 4.4 for Texas (59th) and 4.2 for Illinois (68th). Considering that Illinois is 18th in the nation in 2-point FG% (57.3%), it would seem to make sense to attack the paint, especially against Xavier. Texas is 147th in 2-point FG% at 51.8% and Xavier is 165th at 51.3%. It looks like running either team off the 3-point line would make sense.
--Fast-break points is another area of concern for the Illini. Xavier is 9th in the nation, averaging 15 points a game on runouts, fueled by almost 8 steals per game. Texas averages 11.5 (6.3 steals per game). The Illini average only 7.25 and are 350th in the country in steals at 4.4. If the Illini commit turnovers that lead to runouts, that might be hard to overcome.
Xavier has been fairly consistent in terms of big wins & losses. They split with UConn, went 1-2 vs. Marquette (2-point games) and played St. John's to OT in MSG. They did lose to Michigan by 25 points and only split with Georgetown. But they but beat Creighton by 22 after losing by 9.
If anything, Texas may have been as schizophrenic as the Illini this season. They lost big to A&M...and then beat the Aggies in double OT in the SEC Tourney. They beat Kentucky and beat Mizzou by 8...but lost to South Carolina, lost to Arkansas (twice) and Ohio State by 8, and to Alabama 103-80. They lost to Tennessee by 4 and by 5 to Auburn.
I would expect a tight game Friday night. All in all, I'd probably prefer to play Texas.
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Me too. Xavier is older and better coached than Texas is. Xavier can get on a heater like Maryland did and not look back. Xavier has always seemed to be a team who plays better in the tourney as an underdog.
 
#309      
Fighter of the Nightman
Another subjective but still-relevant advantage of playing Texas? As we know all too well, Jekyll and Hyde teams have trouble stringing together consistent performances. I know this isn’t how stats work on paper, but if Texas beats Xavier, it means they likely had an “on night” in their play-in game … it’d ease my nerves to know they might have gotten it out of their system in time for us to play Bad Texas. 🤣
 
#310      
RollChief
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Another subjective but still-relevant advantage of playing Texas? As we know all too well, Jekyll and Hyde teams have trouble stringing together consistent performances. I know this isn’t how stats work on paper, but if Texas beats Xavier, it means they likely had an “on night” in their play-in game … it’d ease my nerves to know they might have gotten it out of their system in time for us to play Bad Texas. 🤣
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It will also be imperative for the coaches and ACs to ensure that Kylan Boswell does not bring sage to the game. Some might say the team's inconsistencies began on 1/11/2025, the day Kylan Boswell saged the SFC in pregame. Coincidence? You be the judge.
 
#314      
Oracle21
I was looking at #11 seeds in the first round record.

2017: 3-1 (Xavier E8)
2018: 2-2 (Loyola FF, Syracuse S16)
2019: 1-3
2021: 2-2 (UCLA FF, Syracuse S16)
2022: 3-1 (Iowa St S16, Michigan S16)
2023: 1-3
2024: 3-1 (NC State FF)

And #6 seeds:
2017: 1-3
2018: 2-2
2019: 3-1
2021: 2-2 (USC E8)
2022: 1-3
2023: 3-1 (Creighton E8)
2024: 1-3 (Clemson E8)

Not any advantage being a 6.

The last time a #6 seed made the FF was 1992 Michigan
 
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#317      
NarrowJ
Back on topic:

Was taking a closer look at Xavier this evening and noticed that they had a 7 game winning streak prior to losing to Marquette

However, those 7 wins were against this:

Providence 12-20
DePaul 14-19
Butler 14-19
Seton Hall 7-25
Creighton 24-10
Butler 14-19
Providence 12-20

Creighton is a decent team. Not ranked in either poll, but they're pretty good. All of those other teams? I didn't realize that conference was as terrible as it is.
 
#318      
kmunt09
Where can one find original tickets (non - resale)?

Ticketmaster at the Fiserv Forum only has verified re-sale showing. What is the process for originals, and when did they go on sale?
 
#320      
illiniguy24
Illini 993 said:
Xavier's last 10 games they were 8-2, Texas was 4-6 and 8-13 since conference games began (although Texas had a much harder schedule.) Given the choice, I would take Texas as our opponent, both for the records and the difference in coaching.
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Big East vs the SEC…I think we want Xavier
 
#321      
NarrowJ
illiniguy24 said:
Big East vs the SEC…I think we want Xavier
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Texas also had tons of injury issues this year (much more than us, even) and are just now having everyone healthy again

Jmo, but I think Texas is way scarier
 
#323      
mysterio2525
Oracle21 said:
I was looking at #11 seeds in the first round record.

2017: 3-1 (Xavier E8)
2018: 2-2 (Loyola FF, Syracuse S16)
2019: 1-3
2021: 2-2 (UCLA FF, Syracuse S16)
2022: 3-1 (Iowa St S16, Michigan S16)
2023: 1-3
2024: 3-1 (NC State FF)

And #6 seeds:
2017: 1-3
2018: 2-2
2019: 3-1
2021: 2-2 (USC E8)
2022: 1-3
2023: 3-1 (Creighton E8)
2024: 1-3 (Clemson E8)

Not any advantage being a 6.

The last time a #6 seed made the FF was 1992 Michigan
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All I see is a 6 seed went to elite 8 three out of the last 4 years... It's called blinders.

Also I'm pretty sure Michigan didn't do anything in the tourney in 92 😉😉😁
 
#324      
Poe's Law
Illini 993 said:
Xavier's last 10 games they were 8-2, Texas was 4-6 and 8-13 since conference games began (although Texas had a much harder schedule.) Given the choice, I would take Texas as our opponent, both for the records and the difference in coaching.
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Who had the harder schedule for those 10 games?
 
#325      
pweo
kmunt09 said:
Where can one find original tickets (non - resale)?

Ticketmaster at the Fiserv Forum only has verified re-sale showing. What is the process for originals, and when did they go on sale?
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The schools are probably the only source for originals now. Illinois requests closed today
 
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