Three touchdowns technically is 18 points.
Pregame: Illinois vs Toledo, Saturday, September 2nd, 6:30pm CT, BTN
- Status
Toledos DL has one starter back and all of the depth. It was an incredible unit which helped the DBs in 2022. But they were on the field a ton due to QB and offensive issues in 2022, which I anticipate to be 3 fold better in 2023. It's our weakest unit on the team. The back half will need to tackle well.
You may run the heck out of the ball. But at least Brown who ran like 35 times a game is gone. So it's not particularly strength on weakness as far as moving the ball. Blocking us, sure. I'm not sure how the P5 transfers will fair at DL.
But BB had a real good squad in 2015 at Arkansas and went 0fer in the red zone vs. Toledo. 16-12 final score may have been his demise in the SEC. 6'10 400lb Dan Skipper was whiffing on our 6'2 DEs. It can be baffling when size (OLs are the same size at UT and Illinois) doesn't always win out.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Agreed. I am admittedly not thinking about the financial aspect here, but just thinking logistically for capacity, you could wall off the "shaded" seats in East Main with an identical brick wall to the one in West Main. This would accomplish three very important things:
1. Return some of the beautiful symmetry of Memorial Stadium that we lost with the 2006-07 renovation.
2. Presumably apply much needed upgrades to East Main and East Balcony.
3. Remove thousands of seats that are completely invisible on TV and redistribute that capacity to a new, improved, more architecturally prominent structure in the south end zone to replace the Horseshoe.
Maybe something like this, and then work on the Horseshoe:
Just adding a second brick wall like that looks better, IMO ... even if it's done horribly in MS Paint by me, haha.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I only attended the Purdue game last year, and they brought their marching band but not that many other fans ... couple thousand, just like every Big Ten away team (besides some who bring 1,000 at most like Rutgers). I have been to home games vs. Wisconsin and OSU, and it just fluctuates ... when a team is good, they bring a ton of fans; when they are just okay, their fans don't usually bother with the trip. Game to game, I would think OSU, Iowa and Nebraska bring the most?
As far as non-Big Ten teams, NIU would definitely bring the most but we have not played them in a while. NIU actually has a large alumni base, and the trip to Champaign is pretty short for their Chicago Area alumni (I live just north of downtown, and I have made it to Champaign in a little over 2 hours if I leave at the right time). I imagine Toledo will bring significantly more than Wyoming, as it is much closer and it is at least my perception that you have a pretty good following.
Great response, thanks!
I'm not sure. Kentucky would be a comparable trip we made in 2019. Maybe 30 minutes shorter. We brought 500 to 1000. We travel okay, but generally fans travel better to Toledo as the stadium isn't garbage and the city as other amenities to spend the weekend.
Ohio State was hard to Guage if we brought 300 or 2000. Tickets were also 100$+, and 40% of Toledo fans follow the Buckeyes more so they wore red.
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
You're seriously comparing Brets last team at Arky with this year's Illini squad? Completely different personnel, drastically different system, significantly improved coaching staff.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Not wanting to come off as overly rude, but I am not sure touting "all the depth" of a MAC DL means too much. Illini are returning some of the OL starters and have some solid depth at OL as well. In addition, the Illini have traditionally run the ball pretty well, even without Brown. I expect that the Illini should be able to move the line of scrimmage and run the ball well. If the Illini can get the ball to some of the WR playmakers, then I think the field will be very well stretched and could spell trouble for Toledo. I will agree that the Illini have to be better in the red zone this year.
Your last paragraph means absolutely nothing to this matchup. Apples to oranges comparisons, IMO. Post above mine is a great, succinct argument as to why.
Do I think Toledo can compete and cover the spread, yes. Can Toledo surprise and nearly pull off the win, also yes (Week 1 matchups are always a crap shoot). Objectively, the best chance for Toledo to win is trying to go after the inexperienced secondary of the Illini. However, as prior poster mentioned, will Toledo have time to consistently do that? I expect quick routes to be the method of choice, but if the Illini DL disrupts enough, it could be a very long day for Toledo.
Won't make a score prediction, but I think the final score will be very close to the Vegas line...
Last edited:
Exactly my point.....I am licking my chops reading this statement. Toledo will need to get pressure on the QB. Just like Illinois in the secondary it is next man up. We will see which prevails
Home against a MAC team. If we have improved to top 20 team this should be easy win. If we struggle then likelyhood of 6-6 season is much higher.
I feel good about defense. Even with our top 3 players - Chase, Sidney and Devon sitting out our defense held Mississippi State to 13 points before the meaningless fumble touchdown on the last play of the game. Losing Mathew Bailey is a big hit.
Can't wait for the season to start!
He looks like a starting QB!
I feel good about defense. Even with our top 3 players - Chase, Sidney and Devon sitting out our defense held Mississippi State to 13 points before the meaningless fumble touchdown on the last play of the game. Losing Mathew Bailey is a big hit.
Can't wait for the season to start!
He looks like a starting QB!
That team was ranked, and ended up knocking off top 15 teams LSU and TAMU or Miss st? in that year. Ended the season winning a bowl game and finishing either 25th or 26th in the AP. They were expected and finished better than what this Illinois team is supposed. It's nothing more than a historical anecdote that no Toledo fan will let you forget. That's all.
Last edited:
Absolutely well thought out response. That line is close to where I am as well. The depth thing was just responding to what we have in that room. Not meaning that 5th to 7th men from 2022 will mean much in matching up with a good Illini OL.
We aren't Arkansas? Sooooo why are you telling us not to forget?
Toledo has Bielemas number. Actually 6-0 vs. the state of Arkansas all time. 1-0 vs. Michigan. 1-0 vs. Penn State as well. All points of pride for a "MAC" team.
Toledo was known as Giant killers for decades. Now hardly any P5s have played us. Notre Dame should have been on that trophy case. Gotta take a knee and a kick a fg... we've learned.
It really should be strength on weakness regarding the Illinois run game unless Kreutz struggles. The left side of our O-line is very stout and were a good run blocking unit last year. Center really is the only possible major weakness, but I expect Olin Kreutz' kid to hold his own.
As for losing Chase, he was a phenomenal back, but we'll likely miss him most in passing downs as a pass outlet and blocker. Love looked very good running the ball last year and McCray was a force as a freshman before being limited by injury.
Overall, running the ball shouldn't have much fall off from last year if Kreutz can indeed hold his own, though responsibilities will be more evenly split between backs. Passing and receiving out of the backfield though will likely be decently worse without Chase.
On paper, Toledo will need to sell out to stop the run and force Altmyer to beat them through the air. The biggest question there is whether Luke will have the accuracy, touch, and correct reads to do just that in his first game.
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
Not gonna lie, this is the weirdest flex I've ever seen.
And when you say "Now hardly any P5s have played us" I guess you're forgetting the !!!-whipping OSU gave you last year,
Also, please help me with my history--how many times has Toledo beaten Bielema for you to gauge that they have Bielema's number. And when did all this "giant killing" take place--That Arky win and Iowa State the same year are the only P5 wins I see in the last 10 years.
Toledo (21) has the least amt of B1G games in the MAC outside of Kent State (19). Toledo has played fb for 100+ years. So that's odd. Also have the 2nd best win percentage vs. the B1G at 6-15. Purdue x3 last in 2010, Minnesota, PSU, and Michigan were wins. Prior to last season it was OSU in 2011 (referees reprimanded for slant in favor of Buckeyes when Toledo lost by 5 pts and wimpered in the redzone to leave with the L.), then Purdue in 2010. So 1 B1G matchup in the past decade is not much... Of the MAC teams, UT is by far the one you want to play least.
We have been bowl eligible every season since 2010. And all but four since 1994. In the 4 seasons from 06-09 Toledo was not bowl eligible, they defeated Kansas, ISU, Michigan and Colorado. Big East wins over Navy and Cincy in 2012 and 2013. Also knocked off #9 Pitt and Larry Fitzgerald in 03. From the late 90s to 2009 and then since in the few chances, Toledo fairs better than most vs. the P5. And count what you will the amazing series vs. BYU in 2016, and 2019. But an Indy team at that.
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
You're dodging "Toledo has Bielemas number". Where are the other wins to back that statement up?
And I'm sure you know enough about NCAA football to know that there are many, many reasons that Toledo doesn't have frequent games against B1G programs, so assuming that B1G teams don't want to risk losing to Toledo might not be correct--or it might, but I see no real evidence for it. It might be a TV rights thing, or Toledo doesn't want to play away games in the non-con (this is my hypothesis), or their price tag is too high, etc.
Also--The Big East is not a P5 football conference, no reason to cloud the issue with that. Why does it matter who Toledo beat in 2003 when my calendar says 2023? None of these "facts" you bring up have any bearing on what will happen on the field in 11 days.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
If by a sample size of 1, then yes, Toledo "has Bielema's number". Glad that Illinois is not the other teams you mentioned.
By a quick glance at Toledo history since the magical 2015 team that you keep bringing up, Toledo is averaging roughly one P5 game a year, and the last time that they won a game that can be considered anywhere near big is in 2019 vs BYU. Otherwise, they have lost to Miami (twice), Ohio State (thrashing), Kentucky, and Notre Dame. Don't think that translates to current "Giant Killers"; even the wins vs Michigan (who went 3-9 that year in 2008) and Penn State (who were 5-7 in 2000) are not monumental wins.
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
Imagine where Toledo might have been had we not taking Timmy Lasagna away from them???
If by a sample size of 1, then yes, Toledo "has Bielema's number". Glad that Illinois is not the other teams you mentioned.
By a quick glance at Toledo history since the magical 2015 team that you keep bringing up, Toledo is averaging roughly one P5 game a year, and the last time that they won a game that can be considered anywhere near big is in 2019 vs BYU. Otherwise, they have lost to Miami (twice), Ohio State (thrashing), Kentucky, and Notre Dame. Don't think that translates to current "Giant Killers"; even the wins vs Michigan (who went 3-9 that year in 2008) and Penn State (who were 5-7 in 2000) are not monumental wins.
Sample size 1, yes. Still something to beat you chest about when no one schedules you. At least compared to our peers that get 2 or 3 P5 money games a season.
If by a sample size of 1, then yes, Toledo "has Bielema's number". Glad that Illinois is not the other teams you mentioned.
By a quick glance at Toledo history since the magical 2015 team that you keep bringing up, Toledo is averaging roughly one P5 game a year, and the last time that they won a game that can be considered anywhere near big is in 2019 vs BYU. Otherwise, they have lost to Miami (twice), Ohio State (thrashing), Kentucky, and Notre Dame. Don't think that translates to current "Giant Killers"; even the wins vs Michigan (who went 3-9 that year in 2008) and Penn State (who were 5-7 in 2000) are not monumental wins.
Toledos worst season in its 107 year history was the 3-9 season they still beat Michigan... so both were bad. we were 26 pt underdogs.
I said for "
decades," for lack of chances it hasnt been lately sadly. Scheduling by our last AD is finally materializing as we have Kentucky 3 more times, MSU (rescheduled covid year), and Maryland coming up along with Illinois this year.
Miami won 10 games both seasons we played em and had both games close late in the 3rd quarter. Lost to ND on the final drive. Were tied with
8 or 9 win Kentucky team at half when our QB was knocked out in the 1st drive of the 2nd half. Both Mizzou teams won the SEC East in 2013 and 2014 when we played em. Lots of bad luck playing P5 teams when they were up that led to losses.
When Illinois was scheduled this was an automatic win in my mind. Sucks that yall are respectable now. I want Indiana or NW to run over... They won't have us.
Toledo will listen to any P5 and will ask any P5 to play us. The days of Toledo getting anyone of note in the Glass Bowl are probably gone. Why tf are you playing a team as a 9 pt. favorite without an FCS or easy game. This game is and was bad scheduling unless you had a Wyoming or Illinois State also on the schedule. That's my point. Having a good win percentage vs. a regional league you compete with recruits for and playing the least amt of teams from that league is a direct correlation.
The Galloping Ghost
- Washington, DC
- Status