Pregame: Illinois vs Xavier, Friday, March 21st, 8:45pm CT, CBS

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#176      
While I'm glad we're not one of the early games, being one of the last to go off today is tough. It's a lot of waiting around for the main event. It's crazy that a full season's worth of narratives can be altered with how we do here. This hasn't always been the easiest Illini team to love. It's an almost completely new squad with a rollercoaster season of extreme highs and lows. Everything that's happened has been emblematic of the new world of college basketball and it's taken some getting used to. Despite it all, one thing has remained constant. The talent is there. This team is as talented as we've had in a long time. We've got the stars. We've got the bigs. We've got the bulldog defender. Anything can happen in March and I'm ready for one last ride with this squad.
Agreed 100%. The immense talent is actually part of the reason why this team has tested our undying love as fans, haha … ALL of the tools are there for a deep run, and it will come down to mental focus, effort and execution. And while you always expect hiccups with a young team and we’ve had things outside of our control derail our progress, it’s time for our fully healthy squad to step up.
 
#179      
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For good luck (note: I did not steal TSJ’s order).
 
#180      
I've shied away from that type of analysis because it is a little bit harder; for Illinois, I can just eyeball teams in the NET Rankings and know immediately if we have played them. However, I'm now interested, haha. Illinois is #20 in KenPom and #17 in the NET Rankings. It looks like this is how Xavier has fared:

COMPARABLE RESULTS FOR XAVIER
KenPom

L 72-82 vs. #11 St. John's (NY)
L 71-79 in OT at #11 St. John's (NY)

----- #20 Illinois -----
L 53-78 vs. #23 Michigan (Fort Myers, FL)
W 59-57 at #26 Marquette
L 70-72 vs. #26 Marquette
L 87-89 vs. #26 Marquette
(BET in New York, NY)

NET Rankings
L 72-82 vs. #13 St. John's (NY)
L 71-79 in OT at #13 St. John's (NY)

----- #17 Illinois -----
L 53-78 vs. #23 Michigan (Fort Myers, FL)
W 59-57 at #26 Marquette
L 70-72 vs. #26 Marquette
L 87-89 vs. #26 Marquette
(BET in New York, NY)

So I mean ... I think everyone has a right to think we *should* win if we come to play and are properly prepared, but it obviously could be a very tough fight (especially if our shots aren't falling).
While I am a metrics believer, I don't understand how Arkansas beat Kansas. (not a believer of Cal) The fact that Xavier played tough with Marquette in their last three games makes me think this is going to be a tough game.
 
#186      
While I am a metrics believer, I don't understand how Arkansas beat Kansas. (not a believer of Cal) The fact that Xavier played tough with Marquette in their last three games makes me think this is going to be a tough game.
I agree it will be a tough game; and, while I am someone who obviously loves reviewing and compiling stats/data, I am also firmly against treating statistics as anything other than good predictive information ... it's not gospel. In a funny example of how sometimes stats just don't help you all that much, consider that Xavier averages 39.1% from three on the year, and Marquette allows opponents to shoot 31.8% from three. Below are Xavier's three-point shooting percentages in their three games vs. Marquette, lol:

31.6% vs. Marquette on 12/21 (L 70-72)
11.8% at Marquette on 1/18 (W 59-57)
47.8% vs. Marquette in BET on 3/13 (L 87-89)

So they shot almost 70% below their average in the one game they won, and they shot 22%+ above their average in the game they most recently lost. :ROFLMAO: I don't know enough about Marquette to know if they are a good comparison to us in ways other than NET/KenPom rankings, but I do still think that if we play good enough defense to limit Xavier's threes and can make a decent number of our own shots, we will win.
 
#187      
I agree it will be a tough game; and, while I am someone who obviously loves reviewing and compiling stats/data, I am also firmly against treating statistics as anything other than good predictive information ... it's not gospel. In a funny example of how sometimes stats just don't help you all that much, consider that Xavier averages 39.1% from three on the year, and Marquette allows opponents to shoot 31.8% from three. Below are Xavier's three-point shooting percentages in their three games vs. Marquette, lol:

31.6% vs. Marquette on 12/21 (L 70-72)
11.8% at Marquette on 1/18 (W 59-57)
47.8% vs. Marquette in BET on 3/13 (L 87-89)

So they shot almost 70% below their average in the one game they won, and they shot 22%+ above their average in the game they most recently lost. :ROFLMAO: I don't know enough about Marquette to know if they are a good comparison to us in ways other than NET/KenPom rankings, but I do still think that if we play good enough defense to limit Xavier's threes and can make a decent number of our own shots, we will win.
Heard somewhere that Xavier is not a high volume 3pt team. They don't necessarily have to win by three. And our defense... that's really what bothers me.
 
#188      
Also, back to making our shots ... here is an updated record for our Illini based on the percent of our total field goals we made in each game. We shoot 45.0% overall for the entire season.

8-0 shooting 50.0%+
12-1 shooting 45.0%+ (i.e., above our average)
21-4 shooting 40.0%+
0-8 shooting below 40.0%

Make our damn shots.
 
#189      
Also, back to making our shots ... here is an updated record for our Illini based on the percent of our total field goals we made in each game. We shoot 45.0% overall for the entire season.

8-0 shooting 50.0%+
12-1 shooting 45.0%+ (i.e., above our average)
21-4 shooting 40.0%+
0-8 shooting below 40.0%

Make our damn shots.
What bothers me is we are kinda a jump shot team but not a great one. i think we need to cut/pass more.
 
#190      
As I'll be in attendance (and have never been to MKE before, somehow??), anyone know how difficult parking will be around the arena? Coming from the Chicago suburbs and just not sure what to expect.

TIA.
 
#191      
Agreed 100%. The immense talent is actually part of the reason why this team has tested our undying love as fans, haha … ALL of the tools are there for a deep run, and it will come down to mental focus, effort and execution. And while you always expect hiccups with a young team and we’ve had things outside of our control derail our progress, it’s time for our fully healthy squad to step up.
Don’t forget coaching- flexible, timely adjusting to opponent, adjusting to our teams level of mental focus, effort, and execution
 
#195      
My sports life is a movie part 1568:

I live a stones throw away from the Xavier campus. This has potential to torment me for years to come.
I’m in Centerville, just south of Dayton about 40 miles north of you. Was at the game and Xavier can play. Miller is such a solid coach. I’m worried about their 3’s tonight. But I’ve got the good guys winning 90-84.
 
#199      
That's a bit worrisome with Lunardi's reputation for not getting anything right
That and he had a couple questionable lines in the article such as brads proven success in March other then last year Elite 8 many people were wondering if he had the chops to make a deep run in march.hopefully lunardi is right and we make another elite 8 that would be truly awesome after a up and down season riddled with injury and sickness
 
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