The thing that is even more fun is winning.
Spain Tour
- Status
The advantage is Guerrier has been playing high major ball for 4 years and knows the pace of the college game. He very much has proved it on the hardwood. There is always a learning curve for freshman, no matter how talented they are. It’s definitely possible Hansberry overtakes him later in the season. If that happens, we have a true gem in Amani. And it’s also possible Guerrier has a down year, but there is an ocean of in-game experience dividing those two.
There will always be games where the shots aren't falling. Teams are especially susceptible to them in March. Defense travels, defense shows up every time the team does, defense wins in March. There is just more variance in offense. It's less reliable.
If this is coming from the Iowa/Illinois comparison... Fran has been at Iowa twice as long as Brad has been at Illinois. Fran (like BU) has never made the second weekend of the tournament at Iowa and has never won a B1G title. They have each won the B1G Tournament once. (When Iowa won it in 2022, they were somewhat uncharacteristically a top 150 team in Defensive efficiency)
Defense is less fun, if winning isn't fun.
You will need both to cut down the nets at the Big Dance.
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Maybe he just wanted to give Guerrier his "dream" of playing at all three of his teams. When he was recruited in high school he narrowed his final three schools to Syracuse, Oregon, and Illinois. And after this season he will have played at all three. I wonder how often that happens. Maybe more than I think with the new transfer rules. But I am not serious about Brad giving him his "dream".
He shot nearly 35% from 3 last year which would have made him the 2nd best 3pt shooter after Goode on Illinois.
He's not too short to play center at 6'8 and his best year actually came playing a lot of center at Syracuse. College basketball is full of 6'8 guys playing center.
Phenomenal depth option and he was insurance in case Coleman went pro. Guerrier is also 24 years old and played 131 games and a ton of minutes at the power conference level while nearly averaging 10 and 6.
Don't discount the importance of experience and how old Illinois with guys like Guerrier, Harmon, Domask, Shannon, and even Coleman. Then all of the guys from last year are another year older and Dainja is in his 4th year even if he's only played 1.
I would add to this. Elite defense can shut teams down, disrupt for easy buckets, and go on runs that change a game. And once they have the lead, they are much tougher to overcome. Teams with great offense and bad defense seem a lot more susceptible and no lead is safe.
For me, Baylor's championship over Gonzaga is the poster child for elite defense over offense. Gonzaga was an offensive juggernaut, but Baylor gave them a beatdown with team defense. Interestingly, they were only a top-25 defense statistically, but like the '05 team, when they turned it on, they could run teams out of the gym.
Hahaha, that's my latex salesman!
That Baylor team was fantastic on both ends and Gonzaga was terrible defensively that year.
Man looking at kenpom for that year is depressing seeing Illinois being a top 10 team both offensively and defensively and not making it to the sweet 16. They should have at least been playing Houston in the Elite 8.
From NCAA.com on "2020-21 Baylor's style of play and expanded metrics":
"Baylor finished the 2021 season with the second-most efficient offense in the country, only behind the Gonzaga team that it beat by 16 points in the national championship game. The Bears led the country in 3-point percentage (41.3 percent) and fifth in offensive rebounding percentage (37.3 percent), which means they grabbed almost four out of every 10 shots that they missed, allowing for countless second-chance opportunities."
Illini in OC
In. The. Alley.
MDchicago
- Lake Norman NC
While you would never guess it watching the title game, Gonzaga's defensive efficiency was actually pretty good that year (11th) and in the range of a typical NCAA champ (9th on average, with 18 of the last 20 champs ranking 15th or better), and Baylor ended the year with the lowest defensive efficiency rank (22nd) of any NCAA champion in the last 20 years.
I think part of Gonzaga's problem was that they hadn't played a team remotely that talented, athletic or physical since December (going into their Sweet 16 game vs. Creighton, they hadn't played a top 25 team in just over three months). Baylor got after them aggressively from the jump, and the game quickly got away from them.
The optimism for the upcoming season has quickly faded. The orange colored glasses might have broken. Shockingly, this team seems to have the same problems as last year;
1. No point guard - please, there is no argument here. Brad only had the entire off season to find one
2. Poor shooting - just watch. Will be bad.
3. Many turnovers - as will happen with guys who don't handle the ball well
4. Poor free throw shooting - very curious if the team can break 65% for the season. 68% last season.
Flame away. I'm ready. It's only a few pre-season games with a bunch of new guys, etc., etc.
1. No point guard - please, there is no argument here. Brad only had the entire off season to find one
2. Poor shooting - just watch. Will be bad.
3. Many turnovers - as will happen with guys who don't handle the ball well
4. Poor free throw shooting - very curious if the team can break 65% for the season. 68% last season.
Flame away. I'm ready. It's only a few pre-season games with a bunch of new guys, etc., etc.
I wouldn’t go that far in terms of the team and season as a whole, but I do think there's a pretty strong possibility that the Summer PR push to convince everyone Ty is a point guard (which "coincidentally" went into overdrive after Dennis committed to Baylor) will end up looking very silly in hindsight.
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Actually, I sorta have the same take at this early stage of the off-season/preseason........and my biggest concerns center around all four of your bullet points.
Have been hoping that the following 5 guys might show promise of averaging 40-42% from 3-pt territory to alleviate my fears ----- Shannon, Domask, Guerrier, DGL and Harmon. (Perhaps surprisingly, I don't have high hopes for Goode being a big scorer this year.)
Friendly reminder that last season was better than every season between 2012 and 2019. at the very least.
This team will have challenges, but I'd put money that it will be better to watch than last year
I am just guessing but I gotta assume that Gonzaga's defensive efficiency was boosted by a weak schedule. They were big and would wear teams out on the offensive end with the pace they played at it but it hardly looked like they put any effort into playing defense. I know Creighton is a good offensive team but I remember that sweet 16 game where Creighton lost and only put up 65 but they got every shot they wanted, just nothing would fall.
Also, I actually bet on Baylor to win the national championship the day after they beat the Illini early in the season which is about the only time I've hit an outright bet like that. Was just extremely impressed by how the guards and how they handled an Illinois team that I was very high on.
I can’t imagine how much fun a trip like this is for the team, selfishly I’m a little disappointed they didn’t get to scrimmage against the Spanish National team like how University of Houston did against the Australian team on their trip lol.
College BB is not full of 6”8 centers
Houston last year played with Jarace Walker at 6'8 and J'Wan Roberts at 6'7. Kansas only had one player that got at any minutes over 6'8 in Udeh and he only played 8 mpg. Texas had 6'9 Dylan Disu playing center.
Norchad Omier is only 6'7 for Miami. Marble for Texas AM is 6'8, and I can keep going if you want.
College basketball is absolutely littered with teams that run out 6'8 bigs. A lot of power conference teams might have a 6'10 guy or even a 7 footer but it's not uncommon to see a 6'8 center and most of the good mid majors are usually running them out and winning in March.
That VCU team that went to the final four had 6'8 Jamie Skeen and he outplayed both Morris twins in March. Similarly, Matt Howard for Butler was only 6'8.
Some interesting numbers:
- we were last in the BIG at 30.8% from 3 last year
- if you remove Mayer, Epps, Clark, and Melendez… you take WELL over half of the 3-point attempts off the roster
- the remaining team shot… also 30.8%
Hopefully, Goode and Domask improve the percentage this year, but it does seem like we’re stuck in the bottom third of the BIG if we can’t get a true facilitator.
- we were last in the BIG at 30.8% from 3 last year
- if you remove Mayer, Epps, Clark, and Melendez… you take WELL over half of the 3-point attempts off the roster
- the remaining team shot… also 30.8%
Hopefully, Goode and Domask improve the percentage this year, but it does seem like we’re stuck in the bottom third of the BIG if we can’t get a true facilitator.
This team will be way better than last year for a multitude of reasons
Joel Goodson
- dawgville
- Status