St Louis Cardinals 2023

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#276      

Dee_4_Three_83

Dee_4_Three_83
Mahomet, IL
Dee_4_Three_83
the juiceman cometh said:
Agree on the bullpen, but this is way too optimistic a take on the rotation. Mikolas and Monty are #3 starters. Waino was a #3 last season, but his velocity issues in ST and WBC may put him in the #5 camp this year. Matz is a 4/5. I'm high on Woodford, Libby and Pallante but so far haven't seen anything to suggest they're anything more than good #4s. Flaherty has #1 upside but based on how he looked in ST I think he's closer to AAA than to he is to that ceiling. Hudson is probably that classic AAAA guy pitches when needed but may never establish himself as a long term member of the 26-man roster.

If you look at the really good rotations out there, like the Dodgers, Mets, Padres, I feel like Mikolas and Monty are the only ones who even have a chance to make the rotation, and probably on the back end.
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Pallante is not stretched out enough to be a starter at this point. But, you are probably right, my worst case scenario may be a little optimistic. Wainwright's velo was about where it needed to be in his last WBC start, so I am not worried. PHYSICALLY, Flaherty looks good, but he didn't get results in Spring.

But for fun, let's look at the rotations for a second and where each starter is projected for ERA, according to Baseball Reference.
DodgersMetsPadresCardinals
Julio Urías2.77Max Scherzer 2.86Joe Musgrove3.57Miles Mikolas3.60
Clayton Kershaw3.11Justin Verlander 2.55Yu Darvish3.57Adam Wainwright3.61
Tony Gonsolin2.86Kodai SengaUnlisted?Blake Snell3.74Jordan Montgomery3.71
Dustin May3.67David Peterson4.02Seth Lugo3.86Jack Flaherty3.84
Noah Syndergaard3.93Carlos Carrasco4.12Michael Wacha 4.06Steven Matz4.31

Mets and Dodgers clearly have an advantage based on projections, but Padres or Cardinals could slug (and trade) their way past them.
 
#277      

IlliniFaninHoosierLand

IlliniFaninHoosierLand
IlliniFaninHoosierLand
NEIlliniFan said:
Lol
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200w.gif
 
#278      

the juiceman cometh

T
the juiceman cometh
Dee_4_Three_83 said:
Pallante is not stretched out enough to be a starter at this point. But, you are probably right, my worst case scenario may be a little optimistic. Wainwright's velo was about where it needed to be in his last WBC start, so I am not worried. PHYSICALLY, Flaherty looks good, but he didn't get results in Spring.
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According to Baseball Savant in his last WBC outing against Cuba his cutter topped out at 84.1 and his sinker topped out at 88.5. Prior to this spring the cutter has always averaged about 85 and topped out high 80s and the sinker has averaged about 89 and topped out low 90s. His top velocity is thus lower than his historical average and he's sitting consistently about 5mph below his historical velocity on fastballs/sinkers. That's a problem.
Dee_4_Three_83 said:
But for fun, let's look at the rotations for a second and where each starter is projected for ERA, according to Baseball Reference.
DodgersMetsPadresCardinals
Julio Urías2.77Max Scherzer 2.86Joe Musgrove3.57Miles Mikolas3.60
Clayton Kershaw3.11Justin Verlander 2.55Yu Darvish3.57Adam Wainwright3.61
Tony Gonsolin2.86Kodai SengaUnlisted?Blake Snell3.74Jordan Montgomery3.71
Dustin May3.67David Peterson4.02Seth Lugo3.86Jack Flaherty3.84
Noah Syndergaard3.93Carlos Carrasco4.12Michael Wacha 4.06Steven Matz4.31

Mets and Dodgers clearly have an advantage based on projections, but Padres or Cardinals could slug (and trade) their way past them.
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Projected ERA is probably not the best way to look at this but yeah, we play in I think the 2nd most pitcher friendly park in the MLB and our top starter would have the 3rd or 4th best ERA on any of those teams according to these projections. I'd also note these projections are friendly to Waino because they only take into account past performance and don't take into account new issues like his velo falling off a cliff. Also the Flahery projection has him pitching 82.0 innings which makes that 3.84 ERA way less impressive.

Edit: The more I look at these projections the more problems I see. That Padres projection has every single Padres starter's ERA regressing by between 0.25 and 0.75. Is it possible? Sure. But I don't think it's likely. And even their #6 starter (Nick Martinez) had a 3.47 ERA over 106.1 innings last season.
 
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#280      

Dee_4_Three_83

Dee_4_Three_83
Mahomet, IL
Dee_4_Three_83
the juiceman cometh said:
According to Baseball Savant in his last WBC outing against Cuba his cutter topped out at 84.1 and his sinker topped out at 88.5. Prior to this spring the cutter has always averaged about 85 and topped out high 80s and the sinker has averaged about 89 and topped out low 90s. His top velocity is thus lower than his historical average and he's sitting consistently about 5mph below his historical velocity on fastballs/sinkers. That's a problem.

Projected ERA is probably not the best way to look at this but yeah, we play in I think the 2nd most pitcher friendly park in the MLB and our top starter would have the 3rd or 4th best ERA on any of those teams according to these projections. I'd also note these projections are friendly to Waino because they only take into account past performance and don't take into account new issues like his velo falling off a cliff. Also the Flahery projection has him pitching 82.0 innings which makes that 3.84 ERA way less impressive.

Edit: The more I look at these projections the more problems I see. That Padres projection has every single Padres starter's ERA regressing by between 0.25 and 0.75. Is it possible? Sure. But I don't think it's likely. And even their #6 starter (Nick Martinez) had a 3.47 ERA over 106.1 innings last season.
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I agree it would be a problem if it stayed there, but it was steadily ticking up. His first spring training start, his cutter was 3 mph slower than in the last WBC start. I would say that is progress. Not there yet, but the curveball was there. If he lost his curveball spin rate I would be concerned, but I think he will be able to get his velo up to 91 soon, which is really much as you can ask for from a 41 year old! :)
 
#281      

the juiceman cometh

T
the juiceman cometh
Dee_4_Three_83 said:
I agree it would be a problem if it stayed there, but it was steadily ticking up. His first spring training start, his cutter was 3 mph slower than in the last WBC start. I would say that is progress. Not there yet, but the curveball was there. If he lost his curveball spin rate I would be concerned, but I think he will be able to get his velo up to 91 soon, which is really much as you can ask for from a 41 year old! :)
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That's a good point and an encouraging sign. At the same time, he's going to be out for several weeks from what I've read. So will he pick up from where he was at in that last WBC outing, or will this set him further back? Guess we'll find out in due time!
 
#282      

Dee_4_Three_83

Dee_4_Three_83
Mahomet, IL
Dee_4_Three_83
the juiceman cometh said:
That's a good point and an encouraging sign. At the same time, he's going to be out for several weeks from what I've read. So will he pick up from where he was at in that last WBC outing, or will this set him further back? Guess we'll find out in due time!
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I don't think he has to rush back. His spot will be there when he is ready. Who knows, maybe Woodford will pitch his way into a permanent role. A lot can change in 6 weeks, but Adam will be fine. I heard an interview with him on 101Espn this morning and he sounded like he was able to still do long toss without impacting the injured area, so that's good news for sure. He said the only thing that causes pain is when he is in a squatting position.
 
#283      

Downey

D
Downey
My question is, when is the "trade deadline" that media folks keep talking about? Cards are in a very good position to make a trade for a quality pitcher. The surplus of quality young outfielders like Burleson, Carlson, and Yepez are all expendable and would probably be attractive to teams that need outfield help. Motter too, although his ST performance makes a great story, could be included in the mix. (I realize he's not an outfielder).
 
#284      

Downey

D
Downey
Baseball metrics and analytics go crazy these days. But the eye test still matters. As the old saying goes, "If you torture numbers long enough, they'll confess to nearly anything."
 
#286      

wpr

wpr
wpr
Downey said:
My question is, when is the "trade deadline" that media folks keep talking about? Cards are in a very good position to make a trade for a quality pitcher. The surplus of quality young outfielders like Burleson, Carlson, and Yepez are all expendable and would probably be attractive to teams that need outfield help. Motter too, although his ST performance makes a great story, could be included in the mix. (I realize he's not an outfielder).
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Can you explain to me how an OF who is 4th-6th on the depth chart will get you a SP that is more than a 4 or 5? Maayyybe a SP3 if you are lucky.

At this point the Cards have more confidence in Nootbaar than Carlson.

Motter isn't worth anything at all. Perhaps a RP 6 or 7. Perhaps a player who is at AA but certainly not if the player is a top 30 prospect.
 
#287      

Dee_4_Three_83

Dee_4_Three_83
Mahomet, IL
Dee_4_Three_83
wpr said:
Can you explain to me how an OF who is 4th-6th on the depth chart will get you a SP that is more than a 4 or 5? Maayyybe a SP3 if you are lucky.

At this point the Cards have more confidence in Nootbaar than Carlson.

Motter isn't worth anything at all. Perhaps a RP 6 or 7. Perhaps a player who is at AA but certainly not if the player is a top 30 prospect.
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By itself, not happening. You would need a prospect piece, one of the outfielders mentioned, and you would need a team that is wanting to become more financially flexible (like someone going for Ohtani this offseason).
 
#288      

wpr

wpr
wpr
Dee_4_Three_83 said:
By itself, not happening. You would need a prospect piece, one of the outfielders mentioned, and you would need a team that is wanting to become more financially flexible (like someone going for Ohtani this offseason).
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Trading a top prospect (because that is what it would take to shake a true SP1 or elite SP2 away from another team.) along with a backup OF is a whole different narrative.
 
#289      

Downey

D
Downey
wpr said:
Can you explain to me how an OF who is 4th-6th on the depth chart will get you a SP that is more than a 4 or 5? Maayyybe a SP3 if you are lucky.

At this point the Cards have more confidence in Nootbaar than Carlson.

Motter isn't worth anything at all. Perhaps a RP 6 or 7. Perhaps a player who is at AA but certainly not if the player is a top 30 prospect.
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No, I can't explain it.
 
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#291      

Dee_4_Three_83

Dee_4_Three_83
Mahomet, IL
Dee_4_Three_83
Se Il Illini said:
What happened to the dream outfield of Carlson, Bader, and O'neill? Sarcasm intended.
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I do miss Bader. There are some question marks in the outfield, but I feel pretty good about our options. I think Carlson could have a breakout year this year if he stays healthy.
 
#292      

pruman91

pruman91
Paducah, Ky
pruman91
I have to share with my friends here that the opening day ceremonies for the Cardinals brought a tear to my eyes as this is the first opening day festivities without my poppa in about 15 years.........we always got together for this day as the Cardinals meant so much to both of us and set the stage for the following season's discussion's........miss you pop's........................................
 
#293      

Jive Turkey

J
Jive Turkey
Red Sox and O’s will play over a 4 hour game. Love the rule changes! Tongue firmly in cheek, of course.
 
#295      

Ryllini

Ryllini
Lombard
Ryllini
I didn’t catch who the home plate umpire is today, but he is not having a good day.
 
#297      

wpr

wpr
wpr
Ryllini said:
I didn’t catch who the home plate umpire is today, but he is not having a good day.
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Courtesy ESPN
Umpires:
Home Plate Umpire - Dan Iassogna
First Base Umpire - Scott Barry
Second Base Umpire - Gabe Morales
Third Base Umpire - Adam Beck
 
#298      

wpr

wpr
wpr
pruman91 said:
I have to share with my friends here that the opening day ceremonies for the Cardinals brought a tear to my eyes as this is the first opening day festivities without my poppa in about 15 years.........we always got together for this day as the Cardinals meant so much to both of us and set the stage for the following season's discussion's........miss you pop's........................................
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I'm sorry. I know how it hurts. My Dad passed away 15 years ago. I don't remember what it was but something happened this past winter and I was reaching for the phone to call him then I realized that I couldn't.
 
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