- Mahomet, IL
Pallante is not stretched out enough to be a starter at this point. But, you are probably right, my worst case scenario may be a little optimistic. Wainwright's velo was about where it needed to be in his last WBC start, so I am not worried. PHYSICALLY, Flaherty looks good, but he didn't get results in Spring.Agree on the bullpen, but this is way too optimistic a take on the rotation. Mikolas and Monty are #3 starters. Waino was a #3 last season, but his velocity issues in ST and WBC may put him in the #5 camp this year. Matz is a 4/5. I'm high on Woodford, Libby and Pallante but so far haven't seen anything to suggest they're anything more than good #4s. Flaherty has #1 upside but based on how he looked in ST I think he's closer to AAA than to he is to that ceiling. Hudson is probably that classic AAAA guy pitches when needed but may never establish himself as a long term member of the 26-man roster.
If you look at the really good rotations out there, like the Dodgers, Mets, Padres, I feel like Mikolas and Monty are the only ones who even have a chance to make the rotation, and probably on the back end.
But for fun, let's look at the rotations for a second and where each starter is projected for ERA, according to Baseball Reference.
|Julio Urías||2.77||Max Scherzer||2.86||Joe Musgrove||3.57||Miles Mikolas||3.60|
|Clayton Kershaw||3.11||Justin Verlander||2.55||Yu Darvish||3.57||Adam Wainwright||3.61|
|Tony Gonsolin||2.86||Kodai Senga||Unlisted?||Blake Snell||3.74||Jordan Montgomery||3.71|
|Dustin May||3.67||David Peterson||4.02||Seth Lugo||3.86||Jack Flaherty||3.84|
|Noah Syndergaard||3.93||Carlos Carrasco||4.12||Michael Wacha||4.06||Steven Matz||4.31|
Mets and Dodgers clearly have an advantage based on projections, but Padres or Cardinals could slug (and trade) their way past them.