I'm a nobody that has 0 inside knowledge. What I have done however is talk to my HS coach. He says that he keeps hearing Monken and LL. I guess the IHSA coaches want Monken but do not disapprove of LL. I have not read the article mentioned before, just passing along what a small HS coach said.
The Illinois Football Coaching Search
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Yeah the article definitely makes it sound like no Monkens received interviews (although it also made it sound like Todd had no interest whatsoever). If Jeff really was an option, I would hope he would run his system. I don't particularly like the triple option, nor do I think it would work as well as Paul Johnson's did at GT, but it's literally the only systems he's ran for over 20 years. You don't hire a guy to do something completely different from what he knows and is good at.
Put me on the LL bandwagon. Anyone who can win at Buffalo has to be doing something right, and it sounds as though he is excellent at fundamentals and program management. He seems like a Mark Dantonio type at the upside, Jerry Kill on the downside. If he can coach I wouldn't worry too much about recruiting; he will find a way to get the talent here
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I'm not at all surprised. LL had plenty of Illinois kids on his Whitewater teams. I'm sure he has actively networked with the Illinois high school coaches, granted for players at a different level. Hell, he may have better high school connections than D1 guys as there's far more D3 talent than high D1 talent at the HS level.
My guess is that if it does end up being Monken and he does go with a spread offense here he would try and get Todd to come over as OC. Don't know if Todd would leave Georgia but it's a thought.
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I think that's the only way JW would hire him, unless JW really wanted the option offense. I also think Fickell is more likely that that combo, hell maybe even Stoops lol. Not saying I don't think Todd supports his cousin, but that's a big step down for Todd, and I think Todd has his eyes on other things than to play second fiddle to his cousin at Illinois.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
There's a lot to like here, but lets really get to the rubber meeting the road. Buffalo got worse before they got better.Guess we'd better do the F+ rankings. And given the discussion of Buffalo as a program let's really dig back for context.
Pre-2005 (when F+ numbers start) - Buffalo had no team from 1971-76, played in D3 until 1992, 1-AA until 1999, and then had a MAC record of 6-42 from 1999-2004. Very rightly considered among the very weakest programs in all of FBS at that time.
2005: 118th of 119 (-52.3%) Jim Hofher is fired
2006: 118th of 119 (-53.3%) Turner Gill's first season
2007: 109th of 119 (-39.3%)
2008: 58th of 120 (+2.1%) MAC Champion and program's first ever bowl appearance
2009: 80th of 120 (-11.4%) Turner Gill is hired away by Kansas
2010: 112th of 120 (-43.5%) Jeff Quinn's first season
2011: 107th of 120 (-33.1%)
2012: 98th of 124 (-26.0%)
2013: 80th of 125 (-7.8%) Second bowl appearance
2014: 114th of 128 (-34.4%) Jeff Quinn is fired midseason
2015: 98th of 128 (-20.6%) Lance Leipold's first season
2016: 127th of 128 (-52.9%)
2017: 64th of 130 (+2.6%)
2018: 54th of 130 (+8.7%) MAC East Title and third bowl appearance
2019: 53rd of 130 (+6.0%) Fourth bowl appearance
2020: 35th of 127 (+0.5 - they changed the units!) MAC East Title
Leipold comes to Illinois with his D3 coordinators for a collective financial package much cheaper than the Lovie entrance, a much lesser splash, and brings in pedestrian, bottom tier of the conference recruiting classes, and in Year 2 we're one of the worst teams in the country, just getting easily run over by the Purdue's and Northwestern's. The stands at Memorial Stadium look like Covid never ended.
Can the project sustain those kinds of headwinds? Does recruiting just fall through the viability floor? Does the heat make keeping the coordinators untenable? It's different in the Big Ten than it is at Buffalo, that's just a fact, you can't wish that away with odes to patience and building the right way and trusting the process. A disastrous year 2 will put a level of strain on the project that can make the bright future disappear.
If those things are true, does the plan need to take that into account with more jucos and transfers than the Buffalo project was built with?
It's not just "rub the crystal ball with the Wikipedia printout and find out if Lance Leipold is The Good Hire or The Bad Hire". What's the plan? How is it going to work? How robust against the inevitable challenges is it?
Nothing about Whitman's management of Lovie tells me he would dictate to Jeff what kind of offense or defense he should run. Could be wrong, but I don't get those vibes from him. Lovie got to just name himself defensive coordinator and hire his questionably qualified son!
I think if we're worrying about what the Triple Option does to the roster and how that could affect the next staff(would have to rebuild regardless right?) we aren't caring enough about winning in the first place. Not saying Monken would be the best option(3rd on my list behind Fickell and LL) but his offense won't stop JW from hiring him if that's his guy.
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Ubermensch
BOOM! Feed my ego.
I agree. Whitman and Bielema don't feel like a good match to me.
What if I told you Bielema and JW actually get along fine with each other? Still think it'll be LL too but just throwing that out there.
Quick search of LL's Whitewater rosters
Year # IL Kids
2014 27
2013 32
2012 27
2011 22
2010 19
2009 26
2008 21
2007 11
Large number of Illinois kids played for him at Whitewater so I'd assume his contacts in Illinois are pretty solid. Geographically the players range from Springfield all the way up to the northern border, so he was not just picking up players close to Whitewater. Looks decent to me.
BTW, he also had at least a couple of players from FL and CA on those rosters and a punter from Australia.
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I agree. That's why I was comparing it to getting Fickell or Stoops, which I think are closer to pipedreams than real options. I think it's telling that Jeff didn't get an interview, and I think that's strictly based on his system. I don't think JW will dictate much of anything to his coaches, but will also make sure they are aware of his expectations. The sample size for triple option being used in modern P5 football is literally 1. Yes Johnson had very good success at GT but I just can't believe that disciplined, established teams with good defenses like Iowa, Wisconsin, and Northwestern are going to let the triple option beat them at any sort of consistent basis that gives us a chance in the west. My 2 cents
Agree. We cannot afford to get worse before we get better.
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I agree here. If LL is the pick, I have to imagine Josh was blown away with him during the interview process as it doesn't seem like a JW type of hire. And by that I mean, I think of JW as a swing for the fences, leave no stone unturned kind of guy with the major sports. LL actually fits in with the standard mid-lower tier B1G hiring style.
KrushCow31
Former Krush Cow
- Chicago, IL
Giants OC just tested positive. I wonder if Bielema was exposed as a fellow coach. Could throw a wrench into a bit of of process if he was.
I think there's a lot of cliches with regards to the so called triple option that need to be dispelled but this really isn't the thread for that so I'll be brief.
It really isn't a "triple option" in the sense that that is just a kind of play they can run. In fact against Georgia Southern and Navy they actually ran a good amount of split back out of the shotgun, running a lot of dive or QB midline out of it. This is actually seen in a lot of spread option as well.
There's also this cliche that it's supposed to be a great talent equalizer and yet people also say it'll never work against the top defenses in the big ten.
I respect that you know more than I do. But LL would seem low risk to me. Hartline, Nate S would be big risk. I think Nate is not even able to be considered.
Not sure I see that huge a risk. All evidence is the guy is a heck of a X's/O's and program building type coach. The next couple years will suck no matter what as the cupboard is pretty bare right now. HS coaches and players aren't dumb, if they see a coach that develops players, that is good with fundamentals and that treats the players well, the talent will find its way here. I actually view LL as being lower risk than BB and Fickell - we don't know that BB can win without the tail wind provided by a successful predecessor and we don't know how much of Fickell's success is due to him vs his coordinators, plus the expectations and price tag will be much higher
Interesting. I'm thinking that it's quite possible to get along with someone on a casual or occasional basis, and still recognize that the person isn't someone you'd want to hire and work with long-term.
I think it’s going to be LL. I think it will be announced Saturday or Sunday. Should be
a 5 year deal around 2.5-3 mil per year. I think it’s a great choice!!!
a 5 year deal around 2.5-3 mil per year. I think it’s a great choice!!!
GrayGhost77
- Centennial, CO
Agree. Don't think LL is that low a risk. I do think any coach that comes in we're going to see dropoff for a year or two simply due to talent leaving/graduating out when Lovie didn't recruit very successfully the last couple years. I do think LL would get the most out of the talent he has. I think that's where we need to start and if we can at least be respectable on the field and show player development and simultaneously build relationships with the in-state coaches again, the talent will come and wins will build off that. Remember, Alvarez was inheriting a similar situation at Wiscy and it took a few years for it to work, but when it did it worked out spectacularly. It can certainly happen.
Well, when you let Lovie Smith hang around for 2 more years and kill recruiting, there's not much you can do to avoid that.
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