Week 11 Games

#2      
TheChief4Life
I don't think this is the only way, but are we getting too greedy to start hoping for this? It's about as realistic as I could make it. Obviously we can hope that Northwestern and Purdue beat some teams they shouldn't, but I tried to add a hint of realism.
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#3      
Ander1345
TheChief4Life said:
I don't think this is the only way, but are we getting too greedy to start hoping for this? It's about as realistic as I could make it. Obviously we can hope that Northwestern and Purdue beat some teams they shouldn't, but I tried to add a hint of realism.
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Just want to win out, would be nice to make the B1G championship somehow but just win out and let's shock the nation in 2024.
 
#5      
Dan
Week 11 news & games thread

Saturday, November 11th

Michigan at Penn State
11:00am CT - FOX

Maryland at Nebraska
11:00am CT - Peacock

Rutgers at Iowa
2:30pm CT - BTN

Minnesota at Purdue
2:30pm CT - NBC

Northwestern at Wisconsin
2:30pm CT - FS1

Utah at Washington
2:30pm CT - FOX

Tennessee at Missouri
2:30pm CT - CBS

Ole Miss at Georgia
6:00pm CT - ESPN

Michigan State at Ohio State
6:30pm CT - NBC

USC at Oregon
9:30pm CT - FOX
 
#9      
Greensboro
Dkayak said:
And Rutgers of course.
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Yeah, a Rutgers win would be a huge step in our longshot hopes to at least make a west tiebreaker. Unfortunately, both NEB & WIS hold a tiebreaker head to head on us....so win out -get bowl eligible & hope for a bunch of help
 
#10      
Greensboro
& just for fun I think the 7 way tie at 4-5 is still possible...
4-2 - IA needs to lose out - RU, IL, NEB
3-3 - NEB would have to beat IA - lose to MD & WIS
3-3 - WIS needs to beat Neb - lose to NW & Minn
3-3 - MN needs to beat WIS - lose to PU & OSU
2-4 - NW needs to beat Wis & IL , lose to PU
2-4 - Ill needs to beat IA & IND - lose to NW
1-5 - PU needs to win out - MN, NW, IL

so win out & we are a lock at 5-4!
 
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#13      
Illini2010-11
Need help of course.

Assuming Illini win out, the simplest formula:
1) Iowa needs to lose one other time outside of Illini, preferably Saturday vs Rutgers and then beat Nebraska, since Nebraska owns tiebreaker over Illini. Remaining schedule - Rutgers, Illini, @Nebraska -- finish 5-4 conference record
2) Nebraska lose twice. Preferable finish to season: lose vs Maryland, win @ Wisconsin, lose vs Iowa -- 4-5 conference record
3) Minnesota lose once. Preferable finish to season: lose out so Fleck can row boat off cliff (@ Purdue, @ Ohio St, vs Wisconsin)
4) Wisconsin lose twice. Preferable close to season: lose vs NW, lose vs Nebraska, @Minnesota does not matter -- 4-5 or 3-6 conference record

If Illini win out, then Illini own indivual tiebreakers over Iowa, Minnesota, and Northwestern. Then the above is preferable way to win West.

Multiple team tiebreaker get more complicated, and that is best left for a different day. In essence, winning out is almost imperative, though I believe there are still technically scenarios where Illini can still win West if Illini lose Saturday.
 
#14      
Fighter of the Nightman
One more fun thought regarding the Big Ten West standings, that look like this today (tiebreakers in parentheses):

Iowa: 4-2 (WISC, NU, PUR)
Nebraska: 3-3 (ILL, PUR)
Minnesota: 3-3 (IOWA, NEB)
Wisconsin: 3-3 (ILL, PUR)
Illinois: 2-4 (MINN)
Northwestern: 2-4 (MINN)
Purdue: 1-5 (ILL)

Imagine the following results this week for fun, lol (winner in bold)...

Indiana at Illinois
Rutgers at Iowa
Minnesota at Purdue
Maryland at Nebraska
Northwestern at Wisconsin

These would be the standings as we head into Iowa City next week with two games to go.

Iowa: 4-3 (WISC, NU, PUR)
Illinois: 3-4 (MINN)
Minnesota: 3-4 (IOWA, NEB)
Nebraska: 3-4 (ILL, PUR)
Northwestern: 3-4 (WISC, MINN)
Wisconsin: 3-4 (ILL, PUR)
Purdue: 2-5 (ILL, MINN)

And the following games on November 18th:

Illinois (3-4) at Iowa (4-3)
Minnesota (3-4) at Ohio State
Nebraska (3-4) at Wisconsin (3-4)
Purdue (2-5) at Northwestern (3-4)

The Big Ten West could become SUCH a mess, haha. If you took the home team in every one of those matchups but had us win in Iowa City, all of a sudden you have these standings with one game to go:

Iowa: 4-4 (WISC, NU, PUR)
Illinois: 4-4 (IOWA, MINN)
Wisconsin: 4-4 (ILL, NEB, PUR)
Northwestern: 4-4 (WISC, MINN, PUR)
Minnesota: 3-5 (IOWA, NEB)
Nebraska: 3-5 (ILL, PUR)
Purdue: 2-6 (ILL, MINN)

What a mess, haha. I don't even know how you figure out those tiebreakers! MAN, are we going to want that Wisconsin game back. :cry:
 
#15      
mhuml32
A lot on the line for Minnesota this weekend. This is their easiest remaining game on the schedule (Purdue) but they need to win this to become bowl eligible. If they lose to Purdue, they have Ohio State next weekend (loss), which means everything would be on the line in the Bunyan trophy game.
 
#16      
Fighter of the Nightman
mhuml32 said:
A lot on the line for Minnesota this weekend. This is their easiest remaining game on the schedule (Purdue) but they need to win this to become bowl eligible. If they lose to Purdue, they have Ohio State next weekend (loss), which means everything would be on the line in the Bunyan trophy game.
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How sad is it that the teams still fighting for our division title are simultaneously fighting for bowl eligibility with three games left? :ROFLMAO: Gonna miss the Big Ten West. Again, I would love some sort of simulator, as I too easily lose track ... but for anyone with a space brain, these are the current standings (again) with the remaining Big Ten West schedule. I would have to figure Iowa is feeling pretty good, but that last game being in Lincoln can make things interesting.

CURRENT STANDINGS
Iowa: 4-2 (WISC, NU, PUR)
Nebraska: 3-3 (ILL, PUR)
Minnesota: 3-3 (IOWA, NEB)
Wisconsin: 3-3 (ILL, PUR)
Illinois: 2-4 (MINN)
Northwestern: 2-4 (MINN)
Purdue: 1-5 (ILL)

WEEK ELEVEN
INDIANA AT ILLINOIS
Rutgers at Iowa
Minnesota at Purdue
Maryland at Nebraska
Northwestern at Wisconsin

WEEK TWELVE
ILLINOIS AT IOWA
Minnesota at #3 Ohio State
Nebraska at Wisconsin
Purdue at Northwestern

WEEK THIRTEEN
NORTHWESTERN AT ILLINOIS
Iowa at Nebraska
Wisconsin at Minnesota
Indiana at Purdue

One thing is for sure - if Iowa loses to Rutgers this weekend (far from impossible), this thing becomes a true $hlt show, lol. FWIW, these are the standings if you take the "favorite" in every game (including Purdue over Minnesota, NU over Purdue, Nebraska over Iowa and Minnesota over Wisconsin) but the Illini win out:

Iowa: 5-4 (WISC, NU, PUR)
Nebraska: 5-4 (IOWA, ILL, PUR)
Wisconsin: 5-4 (ILL, PUR, NU, NEB)
Illinois: 5-4 (IOWA, MINN, NU)
Minnesota: 4-5 (IOWA, NEB, WISC)
Northwestern: 3-6 (MINN, PUR)
Purdue: 3-6 (ILL, MINN)

4-way tie for first. :ROFLMAO: I THINK it then goes to your record vs. the other tied teams, which would be:

Wisconsin: 2-1
Nebraska: 2-1
Iowa: 1-2
Illinois: 1-2

... then back to head-to-head for Wisconsin/Nebraska, sending Wisconsin to Indy. Lol, what a mess. Again ... that Wisconsin collapse could absolutely HAUNT us.
 
#17      
Dan
TheChief4Life said:
I don't think this is the only way, but are we getting too greedy to start hoping for this? It's about as realistic as I could make it. Obviously we can hope that Northwestern and Purdue beat some teams they shouldn't, but I tried to add a hint of realism.
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Moved some posts to this thread to better highlight the thrilling Big Ten West race as we approach the week 11 games. Go Illini
 
#19      
Dkayak
Fighter of the Nightman said:
What a mess, haha. I don't even know how you figure out those tiebreakers! MAN, are we going to want that Wisconsin game back. :cry:
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I think of it more as lacking dominating team(s). The teams everyone expected to be stronger are weaker and vice versa. Note how Indiana and Northwestern perform vs expectations. Wisconsin, Purdue and Illini. Iowa’s severely unbalanced efforts are hilarious. Imagine them in a Indy thumping! Keeps things interesting. Every single game matters and each is capable of a surprises.
 
#21      
Illini2010-11
Attaching tiebreaker proceedings, since this was last posted on this site over a year ago.

Latest Big Ten standings with tiebreaker rules, remaining schedule, more

Big Ten football is back for another exciting season with three teams ranked in the preseason top 10. Check back here for standings and tiebreakers
dknetwork.draftkings.com dknetwork.draftkings.com

In short, 2-team tiebreakers are obviously straightforward. 3-team + tiebreakers are when the madness begins.

As pulled from the website:

"Tiebreaker rules, three teams tied​

1. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage in games between the tied teams.

(a) Example: East 1 is 2-0 in games between the tied teams with wins over East 2 and 3 - East 1 would be the representative.

2. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage within their division.

3. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, 6, and 7).

(a) When arriving at a group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group, rather than record against the individual teams.

4. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents.

5. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.

(a) Example: East 1 non-divisional opponents are 20-7, East 2 non-divisional opponents are 19-8, East 3 non-divisional opponents are 14-13 – East 1 would be the representative.

6. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared against the highest placed non-divisional teams in their division order of finish (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7).

(a) When arriving at a group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group, rather than record against the individual teams.

(b) When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the record will prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e. 1-0 is better than 0-0, 2-0 is better than 1-0, etc.)

7. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative.

8. The representative will be chosen by random draw."
 
#23      
Birdus
TheChief4Life said:
I don't think this is the only way, but are we getting too greedy to start hoping for this? It's about as realistic as I could make it. Obviously we can hope that Northwestern and Purdue beat some teams they shouldn't, but I tried to add a hint of realism.
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What if it came down to Minny and Purdue. Would anyone watch that? Just saying:)
 
#25      
Fighter of the Nightman
TheChief4Life said:
I don't think this is the only way, but are we getting too greedy to start hoping for this? It's about as realistic as I could make it. Obviously we can hope that Northwestern and Purdue beat some teams they shouldn't, but I tried to add a hint of realism.
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That's honestly not that unrealistic at all, but these are the other results I worry about:

1. Maryland traveling to Lincoln and winning. The Terps seem to be in a free-fall since we beat them, and Nebraska can put it together from time to time. Since we laid an egg vs. the Huskers, we need them out of first place to have a chance, as we ALSO need them to beat Wisconsin (another team that beat us). If Maryland comes into Lincoln and gets a W this Saturday and we beat Indiana, then I will start to entertain a fool's hope!

2. Wisconsin losing twice. I think its fairly likely the Badgers go down in Minneapolis, especially if Minnesota has a shot at a bowl game on the line ... but I think they'll get it together to win at home vs. Nebraska.

I want to go to Indy badly, and I really do not care if we get demolished by Michigan or OSU ... getting there in and of itself is a massive accomplishment for this program given where we have been. However, as others have said, I just want to finish strong and make a bowl game ... and the fact that the Illini going 3-0 might arguably be the most realistic scenario up there has me feeling good!
 
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