Without any data to back it up, I was saying to my wife the other day that it just seems like college hoops is SO much more unpredictable than when I was a kid. Take our 2001 team as an example of a "really good Illini team" that had similar rankings to this year's squad at times, and whose results we would all consider a fulfillment of this group's "ceiling" - a Big Ten title and an Elite Eight ... this was its Big Ten results:
#9 Illinois W 80-64 vs. Minnesota
#9 Illinois W 83-68 vs. Ohio State
#7 Illinois L 78-62 at Iowa
#7 Illinois W 80-51 vs. Michigan
#11 Illinois W 63-49 at Northwestern
#11 Illinois W 92-60 vs. Penn State
#7 Illinois W 55-51 at Michigan
#6 Illinois L 95-95 in OT at Penn State
#6 Illinois W 84-59 vs. Northwestern
#7 Illinois W 77-66 vs. #4 Michigan State
#7 Illinois W 82-61 at Purdue
#4 Illinois W 68-67 vs. #19 Wisconsin
#4 Illinois W 67-61 at Indiana
#3 Illinois L 63-61 at Ohio State
#3 Illinois W 89-63 vs. Iowa
#5 Illinois W 67-59 at Minnesota
Then its NCAA Tournament results
#1 seed Illinois W 96-54 vs. #16 seed Northwestern State
#1 seed Illinois W 79-61 vs. #9 seed Charlotte
#1 seed Illinois W 80-64 vs. #4 seed Kansas
#1 seed Illinois L 87-81 vs. #2 seed Arizona
Sure, you had your disappointing losses ... but they were a rivalry game at Iowa or a comedown game at Ohio State. And yes, you had wins that were closer than they should have been, but they were in a hostile gym in Bloomington. And yes you might have your off game vs. another equally great team during the Second Weekend of the Tournament and get sent packing, but you disposed of the lower seeds by a comfortable margin before that.
Of course there are exceptions, but I just don't remember (and I am including other top programs, not just us) as many of your "WTF" losses to the likes of Maryland
at home where we just look like a totally different basketball team. I do not remember practically KNOWING that a First Round matchup with a #13 seed would scare us all to death like it did in 2022 vs. Chattanooga.
Maybe it's romanticism, but I feel like I used to be excited for a return to the House of 'Paign where we would just beat the living crap out of a team because (A) we were better and (B) we simply didn't hardly ever lose at home. I love watching the Illini as much as the next guy, but the only games where I am just purely pumped are when we play a tough road game or host a top-ranked team at home ... for pretty much all the others, I am equally as nervous and practically want to get it over with and survive with a W, haha.
TL;DR ... I cannot place what it is and I admit I am rambling ... but I just feel like in the mid-2000s with teams that were objectively no better than this squad, I would be far less nervous for "how bad it would be" to lose to Indiana at home if we have a game where we "don't show up." The atmosphere would just be too electric, and it would carry us through. So maybe the issue is just with a decline in the SFC or with a crazy increase in parity in college hoops, but I would just LOVE for us to get a few more performances like NU at home vs. some of the not-as-good Big Ten teams.