Yes, but Miami chose their schedule. If they don't get in it will be for the most part, that they didn't schedule any quad 1 games.
Week of 2/16 Bracketology
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What was the rules change?
We might get some help from the Balkan judges though...
They actually didn't choose their schedule. High major teams would not play them.
One thing to keep in mind today as media members go through their mock selection process, the hot stat that will be on everyone's mind will be Torvik's Wins Above Bubble (WAB). The stat is a resume-based stat that measures how many wins over the last bubble team that you are normalized to an average schedule and performance. So, anyone over 0 in the stat is "tournament quality", and anyone below 0 is "on the wrong side of the bubble".
Based on past media, I have a feeling this stat is going to get "shiny new toy" syndrome in coverage, even though it's simply being incorporated into the nitty gritty report and is one of many stats included (like KenPom rating is, but that's an efficiency metric). So, for reference, here are the teams above the bubble in WAB as of this morning:
1. Michigan +10.2
2. Duke +8.8
3. Arizona +8.2
4. UConn +7.5
5. Houston +7.0
6. Purdue +6.8
7. Illinois +6.7
8. Nebraska +6.5
9. Iowa State +6.4
10. Gonzaga +6.2
11. Kansas +6.0
12. Michigan State +5.5
13. Virginia +5.3
14. Alabama +5.3
15. Florida +5.1
16. Vanderbilt +4.9
17. Texas Tech +4.6
18. St. John's +4.3
19. Arkansas +4.1
20. Villanova +4.0
21. BYU +3.9
22. Tennessee +3.8
23. Utah State +3.7
24. Louisville +3.5
25. North Carolina +3.4
26. Saint Mary's +2.9
27. Miami OH +2.8
28. Saint Louis +2.7
29. Iowa +2.7
30. Miami FL +2.5
31. Wisconsin +2.5
32. Clemson +2.5
33. UCF +2.3
34. Kentucky +2.3
35. USC +2.0
36. NC State +1.9
37. SMU +1.9
38. Georgia +1.6
39. Santa Clara +1.5
40. Missouri +1.5
41. Indiana +1.2
42. Ohio State +1.1
43. UCLA +1.1
44. Texas A&M +1.0
45. New Mexico +0.9
46. Texas +0.9
47. Liberty +0.8
48. Auburn +0.8
49. VCU +0.7
50. Belmont +0.7
51. Stephen F Austin +0.31
52. San Diego State +0.28
53. California +0.04
54. TCU -0.03
55. McNeese -0.08
56. Seton Hall -0.28
57. Yale -0.32
58. Virginia Tech -0.35
59. Oklahoma State -0.7
60. West Virginia -0.8
61. Akron -1.1
Based on past media, I have a feeling this stat is going to get "shiny new toy" syndrome in coverage, even though it's simply being incorporated into the nitty gritty report and is one of many stats included (like KenPom rating is, but that's an efficiency metric). So, for reference, here are the teams above the bubble in WAB as of this morning:
1. Michigan +10.2
2. Duke +8.8
3. Arizona +8.2
4. UConn +7.5
5. Houston +7.0
6. Purdue +6.8
7. Illinois +6.7
8. Nebraska +6.5
9. Iowa State +6.4
10. Gonzaga +6.2
11. Kansas +6.0
12. Michigan State +5.5
13. Virginia +5.3
14. Alabama +5.3
15. Florida +5.1
16. Vanderbilt +4.9
17. Texas Tech +4.6
18. St. John's +4.3
19. Arkansas +4.1
20. Villanova +4.0
21. BYU +3.9
22. Tennessee +3.8
23. Utah State +3.7
24. Louisville +3.5
25. North Carolina +3.4
26. Saint Mary's +2.9
27. Miami OH +2.8
28. Saint Louis +2.7
29. Iowa +2.7
30. Miami FL +2.5
31. Wisconsin +2.5
32. Clemson +2.5
33. UCF +2.3
34. Kentucky +2.3
35. USC +2.0
36. NC State +1.9
37. SMU +1.9
38. Georgia +1.6
39. Santa Clara +1.5
40. Missouri +1.5
41. Indiana +1.2
42. Ohio State +1.1
43. UCLA +1.1
44. Texas A&M +1.0
45. New Mexico +0.9
46. Texas +0.9
47. Liberty +0.8
48. Auburn +0.8
49. VCU +0.7
50. Belmont +0.7
51. Stephen F Austin +0.31
52. San Diego State +0.28
53. California +0.04
54. TCU -0.03
55. McNeese -0.08
56. Seton Hall -0.28
57. Yale -0.32
58. Virginia Tech -0.35
59. Oklahoma State -0.7
60. West Virginia -0.8
61. Akron -1.1
Their "resume" based rankings are decent (22, 35, and 45), so their opponents have been tough enough. The problem is their efficiency rankings are 83, 87, and 80 (though the NET puts them at 48). They were in complete control of how badly they beat the opponents they faced.
The loss last night and a tough game this weekend against Nova at Nova should knock them to a 2. The last 1 is between Houston, IA St and. us.
No, that's not what they show. Miami's non-conference strength of schedule is 364 of 365. That's not "major conference teams wouldn't play them", that's "they refused to schedule a single opponent from a top 15 conference" levels of cupcakes.
Their "resume" is that they have 26 wins and no losses, which is a rare feat and why they are boosted in those rankings that don't consider the true value of each victory and the lack of efficiency shown in each victory.
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I'm not making any statement about what they did/didn't choose. Just that their resume based ranks are respectable, while their efficiency ranks are bad:
If they had played as efficiently as a top 30 or 40 team should against the opponents they faced, the conversation would be different. Based on that, I'm saying their opponents' strength isn't the problem. Their play is.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Hey now, they beat IU this year...
On closer examination, that was IU East (school enrollment around 4,000).
Yes, they played an atrocious non-conference schedule, and that will be held against them on Selection Sunday if they do not win their conference tourney. I will not fault their schedule, many lower-conference teams have schedules like this, but it really only leaves them one option to making the tourney though.
Ohio State just played them in 2023. Indiana played them in 22 and 24. Cincinnati and Georgia played them in 22. Clemson, GA Tech and Cinci played them in 2021. definitely could have found a better schedule. They have 3 overtime miracle wins that they needed buzzer beaters to stay alive. 3 other single digit wins. They are a typical MAC team that would normally lose a few of those games and win the conference tournament and get a 12/13 seed. They are going to be overseeded if they get an 8/9. Akron last year went 28-6 (17-1 in conference) and got a 13 seed and nearly lost by 30 to Arizona.
This isn't true at all, based on available information.
Every article I've read indicates high major teams would not schedule them. Illinois' schedule would support that notion.
In playing around with the B1G Bracket Generator, it appears the Illini would secure a triple-bye if they go 2-2 in these last four games.
That’s because Purdue and Wisconsin play each other. At 15-5, the Illini would be in front of Purdue if Wisconsin wins (that would result in a 3-way tie but the Illini would be ahead of Purdue based on the round-robin records of the three). If Purdue were to win, the Illini would finish a game ahead of Wisconsin.
Still want to beat UCLA and win out, but the win last night was huge.
That’s because Purdue and Wisconsin play each other. At 15-5, the Illini would be in front of Purdue if Wisconsin wins (that would result in a 3-way tie but the Illini would be ahead of Purdue based on the round-robin records of the three). If Purdue were to win, the Illini would finish a game ahead of Wisconsin.
Still want to beat UCLA and win out, but the win last night was huge.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Even if they played better in the efficiency category, they would still be facing a terrible strength of schedule that the committee uses. They have played 23 games this year and all but one are Quad 3 or Quad 4 games (including a whopping 14 Quad 4 games...60% of their schedule). Let that sink in...96% of their games so far are Q3/Q4 games. That is an incredibly weak schedule in the eyes of the committee. So, yes, that is an opponents' strength problem, even if they were efficient across the board.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Yeah, our position for the triple bye is stronger than the standings look because so many of our competitors need to play each other. We still need to get the wins though.
Yeah, I don't pretend to know what the committee will or won't do.
In this case, their elevated resume ranking (which I would prefer to be de-emphasized) will be balanced out by the weak schedule penalty. It's all a comic chasing of tails to just get what the efficiency rankings say anyway, but unfortunately it doesn't always work out what way.
The reason I think the B1G triple-bye is important relies on some admittedly convoluted thinking.
It has less to do with winning the B1G Tourney than playing no more than 3 times in that tourney. This Illini team is capable of winning 4 games in 4 days…but I think that would take a big toll heading into the NCAA Tourney.
It has less to do with winning the B1G Tourney than playing no more than 3 times in that tourney. This Illini team is capable of winning 4 games in 4 days…but I think that would take a big toll heading into the NCAA Tourney.
He's not lying. The committee has had the "How do we change the bracket based on the results in conference championship games" for years. They start prepping that on Friday. For years it was actually part of the trade with CBS. But since CBS doesn't have exlusive television rights any longer I am uncertain there is a written agreement any longer.
Battle89
- Cary-Grove, the better Trojan team
I think the original poster was referring to the Groce tournament loss to Miami, which included a late (incorrect) OOB call.
After that the referee review in the last two minutes (or is it one minute?) of play was instituted.
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