Week of 2/23 Bracketology

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#76      
thefalcon5
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Here’s the scenario:

— St John’s beats UConn tomorrow. St. John’s wins the Big East tournament.

That would give UConn 2 more losses.

— Arizona handles business at home against Iowa State and Kansas. Arizona wins the B12 tournament.

That would give Houston 6 Ls and Iowa State 6 Ls.

— Florida, preferably, loses one more game somewhere; conference tournament or reg season.

IF those things happen, the Illini should have the inside track to the 1seed with wins in the 3 remaining reg season games AND a birth to the championship game. A loss in the championship game to 1seed Michigan should not hurt their cause (plus, most likely that game doesn’t hold much weight for the brackets).

I think perhaps what people don’t realize is how strong Illinois metrics are:

4th in the NET
4th in KPom
5th in Torvik.

The metrics hold significantly more weight in the seeding. The resume determines the bubble. It’s why we’re projected as a 2seed even after our UCLA loss.
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I agree in that scenario we deserve a one seed.

The committee claims that metrics are important however the top 16 that came out on Saturday prior to the ucla game had us at 7th despite holding the metrics we do. I think the committee is still bias to W/L (not that that’s necessarily bad), which is to say I’m expecting us to be disappointed when comparing our final seed/rank to our metrics.

I am once again not understanding how a teams net ranking is not indicative of an actual rank. It’s been said being 4th in net doesn’t mean you’re ranked 4 in the country, but if we lose to ucla, they just beat the 4th ranked team. I don’t get it and never have.
 
#77      
Fly Illini Fly!
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Here’s what Lunardi had BEFORE last night’s result of Houston losing to Kansas:

View attachment 47832
Illinois No.8 overall and Houston No.7 overall. My guess would be that flipped yesterday, and would definitely flip if we win Friday.
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Illinois now ahead of Houston up to #7:
IMG_0390.jpeg
 
#79      
NarrowJ
lstewart53x3 said:
In a world where we lose to Michigan, what would be required for a 2 seed?

Win both Oregon and Maryland + go 1-1 in the BTT?
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I think that would do it, jmo… seems many on here think Illinois is the only top 10 team that’s lost games lately. We’d be 25-8 with more than likely still top 5 metrics and the most Q1A games played as well as having a very evident and significant player availability case that we know they take into account. When you have your best players miss almost half your games, losses are by extremely small margins, and over one third of your games are Q1As then you have a strong case for having 1-2 more losses than the teams you’re competing with for seeding.

Bottom line is the committee isn’t gonna be like “oh they have 8 losses instead of 7 so they’re a 3 seed”… they dig into this in more detail than your average Loyalty member. 😁
 
#80      
thefalcon5
lstewart53x3 said:
In a world where we lose to Michigan, what would be required for a 2 seed?

Win both Oregon and Maryland + go 1-1 in the BTT?
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Impossible to answer without knowing other teams finishes as well (I sure you know this but it’s worth mentioning ).

Assuming we get a triple bye, that would most likely mean we beat someone out of Wisconsin MSU Iowa or UCLA then lose to a top 4 seed. My gut feeling is that probably gets it done.

The tricky part here is what if we don’t get a triple bye? I think it’s pretty darn unlikely assuming we beat Oregon and Maryland. Wisconsin would need to win out. That alone pretty much pushes us down to a 5. Our best hope is that Purdue and Nebraska are tied with us with 5 losses. That give us round robin advantage.

All that being said I think I e come to the conclusion that going 1-1 in the tournament is required for a 2 seed, but no guarantee we get it if we do win that first game.
 
#81      
IlliniFan42
lstewart53x3 said:
In a world where we lose to Michigan, what would be required for a 2 seed?

Win both Oregon and Maryland + go 1-1 in the BTT?
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Win both, ignore Tournament because it means nothing, hope other teams in the 2/3 ranking area don't pull off any signature wins/or suffer bad losses. Like if Purdue goes 2-2 in their final four games I think they have to be ranked below us. Houston needs to win out to compete with us, etc.
 
#82      
Illini2010-11
21ChampaignSt said:
Northwestern now a Q1 win which puts us at 8 on the year. Tied for fourth most.

Wisconsin still 2 spots away from becoming a Q1 and Missouri is within 7 spots after last night's win over Tennessee.

IU falls to 10 spots away from Q1. But I'm not going to mourn that one.
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This is the one that we really want to become Q1. NW, Mizzou, and IU being Q2 games are not that bad of a thing, since they were wins. From a resume perspective, we want all of our losses to be in the Q1 area.

Even if Wisconsin remains Q2, we still have a very solid resume. A win on Friday, and the team is a virtual lock for 2 seed at worst by beating Oregon and MD, regardless of BTT.
 
#83      
Fly Illini Fly!
The "may not get the triple bye" argument needs to die. It's woefully ignorant, totally fueled by rage from the UCLA loss.

Even if we lose on Friday, all we need is for MSU to lose one more game and WISC to lose one more game.

(of course assuming we don't lose to Oregon or Maryland)

Here's the bracket generator:

mred's Big 10 MBB Tournament Seeding Tiebreaker

Big 10 Conference Men's Basketball Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers
bball.notnothing.net
 
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#84      
From the cheap seats
Fly Illini Fly! said:
The "may not get the triple bye" argument needs to die. It's woefully ignorant, totally fueled by rage from the UCLA loss.

Even if we lose on Friday, all we need is for MSU to lose one more game and WISC to lose one more game.

(of course assuming we don't lose to Oregon or Maryland)

Here's the bracket generator:

mred's Big 10 MBB Tournament Seeding Tiebreaker

Big 10 Conference Men's Basketball Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers
bball.notnothing.net
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I think it’s even simpler than that. Even if Wisconsin wins out, that pushes Purdue below the Illini by virtue of the tie-breaker. It boils down to MSU winning out, meaning they beat both Purdue and Michigan.
 
#85      
SkyysNotFalling
In August if you told me we’d be arguing over whether we are the 4th-9th overall team in the country right now… I’d be ecstatic.

Let’s bring the vibes up and keep em up. This is a special team still. 4 B1G losses by a combined 9 points!

And the whole “well every team can say a few bounces their way would inflate their record”.. doesn’t work for us. Our closest big ten win was by 6 points. None of our wins were decided by 1 possession.. but ALL of our losses have been… and technically if you can score 4 points on an and-1 three and free throw.. only 1 loss by more than one possession ALL season.
 
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#86      
Fly Illini Fly!
From the cheap seats said:
I think it’s even simpler than that. Even if Wisconsin wins out, that pushes Purdue below the Illini by virtue of the tie-breaker. It boils down to MSU winning out, meaning they beat both Purdue and Michigan.
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Not exactly because then if Nebraska loses one on the west coast AND Wisconsin wins out, Illinois will not get the triple bye.

Just simplest form (if we lose to Michigan):

Root for MSU to lose one more game. And Wisconsin to lose one more game.

(I think it's more likely than not Nebby drops one more game)
 
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#87      
illiniguy1234
21ChampaignSt said:
Northwestern now a Q1 win which puts us at 8 on the year. Tied for fourth most.

Wisconsin still 2 spots away from becoming a Q1 and Missouri is within 7 spots after last night's win over Tennessee.

IU falls to 10 spots away from Q1. But I'm not going to mourn that one.
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My problem with the NET is exactly this. I know it's not the end-all-be-all of a resume, but I don't believe a Wisconsin home game is "easier" than a Northwestern away game. I am happy to add another Q1 win though and hopefully we can basically seal a 2 seed on Friday night.
 
#88      
lstewart53x3
IlliniFan42 said:
Win both, ignore Tournament because it means nothing, hope other teams in the 2/3 ranking area don't pull off any signature wins/or suffer bad losses. Like if Purdue goes 2-2 in their final four games I think they have to be ranked below us. Houston needs to win out to compete with us, etc.
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I know the championship isn’t typically included in seeding. But are we sure the tournament itself is meaningless?
 
#89      
jrichisamazing
mysterio2525 said:
one of interesting comparisons to teams on torvik was the 2014 Wisconsin team that went to final 4 but I actually think this Illinois team is closer to the 2015 Wisconsin team that went to the finals.

here is 2015 Wisconsin
View attachment 47845


and here is 2026 Illinois

View attachment 47846

really good offense, decent defense, low turnover rate by both teams, don't turn their opponents over a lot. great at free throws. similar shooting profiles percentage wise from overall and 3pt.

Illinois plays faster, rebounds better and shoots a lot more 3s but opponents shot better against Wisconsin from 3pt.
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I like that comparison a lot. That Wisconsin team went through the gauntlet to get there too. UNC in the S16, Arizona in the E8, Kentucky in the F4, and Duke in the Chmapionship.
 
#91      
Fly Illini Fly!
lstewart53x3 said:
In a world where we lose to Michigan, what would be required for a 2 seed?

Win both Oregon and Maryland + go 1-1 in the BTT?
Click to expand...
Need to root for Nebraska/Florida/Gonzaga to lose.

FLA still has @KY.
Zags still have @St Mary's
Nebby still has USC/UCLA.

Of course all of them still have conf tourneys.

Kansas would be another team but very likely they finish with more losses than IL (unless we lose to Oregon or Maryland).
 
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#92      
Second place is 1st loser
While I’d love St. Louis in the first two rounds, I’m not sure it matters all that much given how the Illini fans travel and how well the Illini have played in places way more hostile than a NCAA site.
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We have Illini fans that actually live in St. Louis. That's like saying that it doesn't matter if we're in Chicago. Of course it does. You take every advantage that you can get and that would be a huge one.
 
#94      
wettsten
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Not exactly because then if Nebraska loses one on the west coast AND Wisconsin wins out, Illinois will not get the triple bye.

Just simplest form (if we lose to Michigan):

Root for MSU to lose one more game. And Wisconsin to lose one more game.

(I think it's more likely than not Nebby drops one more game)
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we'd probably be ok if they beat purdue. it's worse for us if they beat michigan
 
#96      
IlliniFan42
lstewart53x3 said:
I know the championship isn’t typically included in seeding. But are we sure the tournament itself is meaningless?
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Yeah pretty much, every time people think the games mean something, the committee surprises them. The only value the tournaments bring to brackets are needing to make changes for automatic qualifiers.

Rutgers in 2023 for example thought they did enough beating Michigan when both teams were on the bubble in the BTT.
 
#98      
Fighter of the Nightman
2qtslow said:
If we get STL first weekend does that mean DC the second? I live in DC.
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You could try to start making inferences based on the rest of the projected bracket, but in isolation your First Weekend location has no inherent correlation with your Second Weekend (i.e., Regional) location. For example, last year we shared Milwaukee with Iowa State, even though we were in the Midwest Regional of the bracket and the Cyclones were in the South Regional.
 
#99      
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr?
thefalcon5 said:
Woh strong verbiage there considering UConn lost to a 14-13 Creighton team literally a week ago.

I would expect UConn to win, however St. John’s is absolutely talented enough to beat them.
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St John’s looks terrible. Unauthentic, slow, small, zero shooting from the perimeter. I think this ends the one seed discussion (unless UConn has some otherworldly choke job),
 
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