Week of 2/5 Games Thread

[Illini2010-11]

A 3 seed is looking pretty darned unrealistic from where I stand. FAU is killing us.

If the Illini get to 25-6 to close the regular season (meaning 8-1 close to season with 2 more Quad 1-A wins), barring a collapse in B1G tourney, that is a very realistic 3 seed if not higher. Believe it or not, FAU is still top 30 NET and can still end up being a Quad 1-A win if they get to 25 in NET (which they were before losing last night).

I am not saying that 8-1 is likely (I see 7-2 or 6-3 as way more likely than finishing 8-1), but at this point, 3 seed should still be the goal for this team, with a 4 seed as the fallback. A win on Saturday, and I think we should all be in agreement that a 3 seed is well within reach.

 

[LvilleILL]

If the Illini get to 25-6 to close the regular season (meaning 8-1 close to season with 2 more Quad 1-A wins), barring a collapse in B1G tourney, that is a very realistic 3 seed. Believe it or not, FAU is still top 30 NET and can still end up being a Quad 1-A win if they get to 25 in NET (which they were before losing last night).

I am not saying that 8-1 is likely (I see 7-2 or 6-3 as way more likely than finishing 8-1), but at this point, 3 seed should still be the goal for this team, with a 4 seed as the fallback.

25-6 and we are getting a 2 seed. We would be top 8 in likely almost all metrics

 

[Illini2010-11]

25-6 and we are getting a 2 seed. We would be top 8 in likely almost all metrics

Correct. I was simply trying to state that 3 seed is very realistic.

 

[illiniguy24]

Wisky on fraud watch? People are talking.

Been sayin!

 

[ChiefGritty]

If the Illini get to 25-6 to close the regular season (meaning 8-1 close to season with 2 more Quad 1-A wins), barring a collapse in B1G tourney, that is a very realistic 3 seed if not higher. Believe it or not, FAU is still top 30 NET and can still end up being a Quad 1-A win if they get to 25 in NET (which they were before losing last night).

I am not saying that 8-1 is likely (I see 7-2 or 6-3 as way more likely than finishing 8-1), but at this point, 3 seed should still be the goal for this team, with a 4 seed as the fallback. A win on Saturday, and I think we should all be in agreement that a 3 seed is well within reach.

Based on the team we've been so far, 8-1 would be a pretty dramatic transformation. I don't think that's anything close to the most likely outcome.

And the only reason we're even in the 3 seed conversation right now is that so many of the teams in that zone keep losing, but as the season goes along all those losses become somebody else's good wins, and big resumes start to emerge. This is the advantage of being a great league, a rare thing for a Big Ten team to lack.

All told I find the expectations on this board to be pretty sharply overoptimistic here on February 9th. Which gives this season something in common with every Illini Basketball team since Dan registered the domain name.

 

[LvilleILL]

Based on the team we've been so far, 8-1 would be a pretty dramatic transformation. I don't think that's anything close to the most likely outcome.

And the only reason we're even in the 3 seed conversation right now is that so many of the teams in that zone keep losing, but as the season goes along all those losses become somebody else's good wins, and big resumes start to emerge. This is the advantage of being a great league, a rare thing for a Big Ten team to lack.

All told I find the expectations on this board to be pretty sharply overoptimistic here on February 9th. Which gives this season something in common with every Illini Basketball team since Dan registered the domain name.

Because we have a really good team? Name one Illini basketball team that has had to go through what these guys have the last month and a half. Do you know how many teams would have imploded. Ya'll don't even know half of what has gone down behind the scenes. This is a really talented team that plays together and truly loves each other. The sky is the limit for what they can still accomplish. And as your resume stance goes, we literally have the best team in the country at home next month. There won't be 10 more other games across the entire country the rest of the regular season to have as good of a win

 

[Illini2010-11]

Based on the team we've been so far, 8-1 would be a pretty dramatic transformation. I don't think that's anything close to the most likely outcome.

And the only reason we're even in the 3 seed conversation right now is that so many of the teams in that zone keep losing, but as the season goes along all those losses become somebody else's good wins, and big resumes start to emerge. This is the advantage of being a great league, a rare thing for a Big Ten team to lack.

All told I find the expectations on this board to be pretty sharply overoptimistic here on February 9th. Which gives this season something in common with every Illini Basketball team since Dan registered the domain name.

Is that you in the middle watching Illini games?

Also last year at this time, there was virtually nobody on this board optimistic about the team...

 

[IlliniCub 16]

Because we have a really good team? Name one Illini basketball team that has had to go through what these guys have the last month and a half. Do you know how many teams would have imploded. Ya'll don't even know half of what has gone down behind the scenes. This is a really talented team that plays together and truly loves each other. The sky is the limit for what they can still accomplish. And as your resume stance goes, we literally have the best team in the country at home next month. There won't be 10 more other games across the entire country the rest of the regular season to have as good of a win

We're playing UConn next month?

Just teasing, I agree with what you are saying here overall. I do think UConn is better than Purdue though.

 

[ChiefGritty]

Because we have a really good team? Name one Illini basketball team that has had to go through what these guys have the last month and a half. Do you know how many teams would have imploded. Ya'll don't even know half of what has gone down behind the scenes. This is a really talented team that plays together and truly loves each other. The sky is the limit for what they can still accomplish. And as your resume stance goes, we literally have the best team in the country at home next month. There won't be 10 more other games across the entire country the rest of the regular season to have as good of a win

We're good and I like our team and I do think it's possible there is an emergence out of all this chaos that pushes us up a level. There were flickers there before the TSJ situation went down.

But I also think our schedule as a whole just continues to look weaker, I think the team we see right now is just kind of ploddingly good-but-not-great, and you multiply those together and I'd bite your arm off right now for the 4 seed that has emerged as a consensus fallback around here.

 

[RockfordIllini]

As weak as our resume is, MSU is something like 2-7 in Q1 games, with one of those wins being Indiana State which is likely to fall to Q2. And their only other opportunity for a Q1 win is at Mackey which…ain’t happening.

Long story short, MSU needs this one to make the Dance, and Izzo doesn’t miss the Dance. We are up against 25 years of history.

I do think we are clearly the better team but we are going to get mauled. I think the team is playing better lately but I haven’t seen the bite/mental toughness to beat Izzo in a must win game for him.

Think MSU pulls it out something like 73-67, with something like a 20-12 advantage in free throws, and we are incensed at all of the contact down low that isn’t called.

 

[Bigtex]

Because we have a really good team? Name one Illini basketball team that has had to go through what these guys have the last month and a half. Do you know how many teams would have imploded. Ya'll don't even know half of what has gone down behind the scenes. This is a really talented team that plays together and truly loves each other. The sky is the limit for what they can still accomplish. And as your resume stance goes, we literally have the best team in the country at home next month. There won't be 10 more other games across the entire country the rest of the regular season to have as good of a win

But playing the best or 2nd best team in the country doesn't get the job done. Gotta win against everyone @ home. Expect similar results as Marquette, @Tennessee and @Purdue. Tight games but the same result. I will gladly eat crow if they beat Purdue.

 

[LvilleILL]

I am very confident we beat Purdue in March. We will be up for that game as will the crowd

 

[LvilleILL]

I also think we have been getting better almost every game since TSJ has been back. We had a really bad last three minutes against Nebraska, but Tominaga also had the game of his life and Mast hit some really tough threes and we still won. Need to keep improving, and tomorrow is a great chance to have a statement win

 

[skyIdub]

Because we have a really good team? Name one Illini basketball team that has had to go through what these guys have the last month and a half. Do you know how many teams would have imploded. Ya'll don't even know half of what has gone down behind the scenes. This is a really talented team that plays together and truly loves each other. The sky is the limit for what they can still accomplish. And as your resume stance goes, we literally have the best team in the country at home next month. There won't be 10 more other games across the entire country the rest of the regular season to have as good of a win

 

[Illini2010-11]

But playing the best or 2nd best team in the country doesn't get the job done. Gotta win against everyone @ home. Expect similar results as Marquette, @Tennessee and @Purdue. Tight games but the same result. I will gladly eat crow if they beat Purdue.

The Illini played Purdue down to the wire at Mackey without TSJ in January. Yes, the Illini have not looked great at times since TSJ returned, but I expect the Illini to play with fire against Purdue, and I do think the Illini have a great chance at returning the favor.

 

[LvilleILL]

Also last year at this time, there was virtually nobody on this board optimistic about the team...

I want us to get the best seed possible, but I am also on the side of knowing that this team can make a deep run no matter where they are seeded

We all (me included) worry about the seeding, but the reality is that an 8 seed and two 5 seeds made the final 4 last year

 

[Bigtex]

I also think we have been getting better almost every game since TSJ has been back. We had a really bad last three minutes against Nebraska, but Tominaga also had the game of his life and Mast hit some really tough threes and we still won. Need to keep improving, and tomorrow is a great chance to have a statement win

It is more than bad luck that so many guys have great nights

23-24
Tominiga
Mast
Koleck
Kaufmann-Redd
Young & Reece
22-23
Perkins
Pickett x2
Funk x2
Brown
TJD
Thorton
Newman

 

[NarrowJ]

It is more than bad luck that so many guys have great nights

23-24
Tominiga
Mast
Koleck
Kaufmann-Redd
Young & Reece
22-23
Perkins
Pickett x2
Funk x2
Brown
TJD
Thorton
Newman

Brad's whole philosophy is to live with a guy or two getting theirs and to not let the lesser talented players beat you. Stay home on defense and live with the result as opposed to giving up easy looks from 3 to guys who might not be good players, but can shoot well. So the list isn't super surprising.

I will say last year's list is probably for different reasons though.

 

[FreshlySqueezed]

The Illini played Purdue down to the wire at Mackey without TSJ in January. Yes, the Illini have not looked great at times since TSJ returned, but I expect the Illini to play with fire against Purdue, and I do think the Illini have a great chance at returning the favor.

Played them down to the wire?

That final score was awfully deceptive. We were down 14 with 5 minutes to go.

 

[mysterio2525]

I also think we have been getting better almost every game since TSJ has been back. We had a really bad last three minutes against Nebraska, but Tominaga also had the game of his life and Mast hit some really tough threes and we still won. Need to keep improving, and tomorrow is a great chance to have a statement win

I think this may be the most important thing... If we get tsj back to form with a clear number 2 in domask (who may be all big ten this year) and a good shooting Coleman Hawkins playing all big ten defense....Then watch out! Not even mentioned ty Rodgers grabbing rebounds like Barkley...and getting guerrier healthy and still having that dawg Harmon locked and loaded to come in and do whatever is needed to win.

It's still February so still time to get this team peaking in March

 

[ChiefGritty]

Played them down to the wire?

That final score was awfully deceptive. We were down 14 with 5 minutes to go.

Purdue and Tennessee were both fake rallies that prettied up the final score, we were nowhere near winning either game.

 

[NarrowJ]

Played them down to the wire?

That final score was awfully deceptive. We were down 14 with 5 minutes to go.

And yet it was a one-possession game at the very end. Definition of 'playing them down to the wire'.

 

[HailtotheChief]

I am very confident we beat Purdue in March. We will be up for that game as will the crowd

I will not be surprised if we are able to win that game. As for "very confident" , I can't say that given how we played at home vs Maryland, MSU and Nebraska. To beat a team like Purdue we need to play better at home than we have in those games. TSJ needs to play better and not settle for double digit 3 point attempts vs Purdue.

 

[FreshlySqueezed]

Purdue and Tennessee were both fake rallies that prettied up the final score, we were nowhere near winning either game.

In general, I agree with that, but we did at least have a 2nd half lead against Tennessee. We were down 15ish points almost the entire game at Purdue.

 

[NarrowJ]

Purdue and Tennessee were both fake rallies that prettied up the final score, we were nowhere near winning either game.

Purdue was a one possession game at the very end. Tennessee's largest lead was only 4 point more than the margin of victory.