All teams should be evaluated on their full body of work, not just non-con. Efficiency metrics don't reward anyone for a soft schedule, and will even penalize a close win against a bad team. Resume metrics do suffer from this problem, but those are the only thing in MOH's favor.Indiana played no one in nonconference except the worst Marquette team since 1963-1964 (when Ed Hickey was coaching them) and Louisville. Louisville blew them out. I don't think mediocre Big 10 teams should be rewarded for playing soft non conference schedules when it comes to being on the bubble. They did win at UCLA but got blown out by a lousy USC team. They also just lost at home to the Kitties. Could Northwestern go to Miami of Ohio and beat them? I doubt it. I pass on Indiana. In the last three weeks they have been blown out by the Illini, Sparty and Purdue.
Emphasizing the last few games is reasonable since it could indicate a trend, but I wouldn't go crazy with it. Humans often overdo it with recency bias.