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Old Dec 22, 2016, 09:18 AM   #76
WesterveltVictoryCigar
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Originally Posted by Calvin View Post
They use a predictive rating, and give us a 22.4% chance of an at-large bid. Seems in line with other data we've seen. FWLIW, I don't see how our SOS could be that high.
That's our SOS using RPI, i.e. not taking into account margin of victory. Pomeroy has it #122.
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 10:03 AM   #77
whovous
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Originally Posted by WesterveltVictoryCigar View Post
That's our SOS using RPI, i.e. not taking into account margin of victory. Pomeroy has it #122.
Am I correct in guessing that the blowout score against WVA explains a large part of the difference between the two rankings? What would our Pomeroy be had we matched its' pregame spread prediction?
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 10:35 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by whovous View Post
Am I correct in guessing that the blowout score against WVA explains a large part of the difference between the two rankings? What would our Pomeroy be had we matched its' pregame spread prediction?
I think it's a lot more than just the WV loss margin. But that team does exemplify the difference between RPI and more advanced rankings. In RPI, WV is #58. Pomeroy has them #8 and Sagarin as them #1.

The loss to WV dropped us 8 spots in Pomeroy. I don't think it's as simple as saying we'd be 8 spots higher, but that's probably the ballpark.
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 10:47 AM   #79
UofIChE06
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Originally Posted by ski300 View Post
Don't put too much stock in RPI numbers until at least mid-January. The RPI numbers change considerably once team start conference play. It we still have a good non-con strength of schedule at the end of January that would be a positive.
Um non-con SOS isn't going to change for many teams from here out. Most are going into their conference slates very soon.
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 11:10 AM   #80
ski300
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Originally Posted by UofIChE06 View Post
Um non-con SOS isn't going to change for many teams from here out. Most are going into their conference slates very soon.
It will change. It always does. The teams that make up our non-conference schedule will have their RPIs change considerably when they are in conference play. This change in individual team RPIs will change our non-conference SOS. This happens every year. It usually settles down by the end of January.
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 11:11 AM   #81
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Originally Posted by UofIChE06 View Post
Um non-con SOS isn't going to change for many teams from here out. Most are going into their conference slates very soon.
I believe SOS calculations are dynamic, so non-conference SOS will depend on how teams end up doing later in the season as well. So just because teams have finished their non-conference schedule does not mean that their non-conference SOS won't change.
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 11:14 AM   #82
ski300
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Originally Posted by Obelix View Post
I believe SOS calculations are dynamic, so non-conference SOS will depend on how teams end up doing later in the season as well. So just because teams have finished their non-conference schedule does not mean that their non-conference SOS won't change.
Exactly. It is an ever changing number. The deeper you get into conference play the more stable that number is because of a larger portion of the schedule has been played. Teams have played less than half of the season at this point, the numbers will change.
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 11:20 AM   #83
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I prefer my sos on toast with butter. Haven't tried rpi.
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 11:25 AM   #84
WesterveltVictoryCigar
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Originally Posted by UofIChE06 View Post
Um non-con SOS isn't going to change for many teams from here out. Most are going into their conference slates very soon.
Conference RPI won't change much, but individual teams' non-conference RPI will change.
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 07:44 PM   #85
Kingo24
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Illini nowhere to be found in Lunardi's newest bracket, despite his having 9 Big Ten teams in.
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 07:48 PM   #86
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Michigan in a tough game with furman right now in a potential rpi shake up
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 07:56 PM   #87
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Originally Posted by Kingo24 View Post
Illini nowhere to be found in Lunardi's newest bracket, despite his having 9 Big Ten teams in.
That fool also has Monmouth in the field despite just having their two best wins being against Memphis and Princeton. He'll be accurate at the end of the season but I really don't understand some of his picks at the moment.

Last edited by Newman; Dec 22, 2016 at 08:08 PM.
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 08:13 PM   #88
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Originally Posted by Newman View Post
That fool also has Monmouth in the field despite just having their two best wins being against Memphis and Princeton. He'll be accurate at the end of the season but I really don't understand some of his picks at the moment.
He must be too busy with all his Bracketologist responsibilities to put in any real effort at this point. Palm's bracket seems to at least take into account the numbers at the moment, early though it is.
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 08:29 PM   #89
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He must be too busy with all his Bracketologist responsibilities to put in any real effort at this point. Palm's bracket seems to at least take into account the numbers at the moment, early though it is.
He puts too much emphasis on his employers' ridiculous BPI.

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Old Dec 22, 2016, 08:35 PM   #90
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Originally Posted by Newman View Post
That fool also has Monmouth in the field despite just having their two best wins being against Memphis and Princeton. He'll be accurate at the end of the season but I really don't understand some of his picks at the moment.
That's because he projects them as the likely winner of the MAAC conference's automatic bid. Projected field does not mean that Monmouth is better than Illinois, you have to consider the automatic conference entries.
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 08:59 PM   #91
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That's because he projects them as the likely winner of the MAAC conference's automatic bid. Projected field does not mean that Monmouth is better than Illinois, you have to consider the automatic conference entries.
I didn't think about that when I saw his tweet about them making the bracket. I'll take back the fool part for now but still, he's a guy that normally claims to be more objective yet he has MSU still in it. I don't hate TCU being in it for now but there are more deserving teams IMO. I don't know if I'd put Illinois in either but I think we should be close compared considering how weak some of the other resumes are.
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 09:05 PM   #92
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Did Lunardi at least bump Syracuse off after their 33 point loss to St. John's?
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 09:48 PM   #93
westms77
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How starved are we that we're already excited about getting close to the bubble. All I want for Christmas is to get back to the dance...feel free to insert the music
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 10:29 PM   #94
WesterveltVictoryCigar
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RPI creeps up to 32...
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 10:59 PM   #95
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Originally Posted by WesterveltVictoryCigar View Post
RPI creeps up to 32...
This makes me happy. Also makes me think of it as more of an indictment on NCAA hoops. We haven't really been impressive, haven't won every game we should, and certainly didn't steal one we shouldn't have. If we're 32 that means there's a lot of really bad, less impressive teams.

That said, I think we're mid-gel right now. With conference play probably one or two ugly losses early. But at full gel the last quarter of the season a deep run in the btt and top 25 rpi wouldn't surprise me.
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 11:09 PM   #96
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We haven't really been impressive, haven't won every game we should, and certainly didn't steal one we shouldn't have. If we're 32 that means there's a lot of really bad, less impressive teams.
Well it is college basketball. We don't have to be great to make it to the tournament, we just have to suck less than a lot of other teams.
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 11:40 PM   #97
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Well it is college basketball. We don't have to be great to make it to the tournament, we just have to suck less than a lot of other teams.
Good point.
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Old Dec 23, 2016, 12:42 AM   #98
618MattD
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I believe that we are starting to see the difference between levels of play in college start to even out.. With the one and done being such a hot commodity the high majors are constantly having roster turnovers. Teams don't have studs to build their programs around anymore
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Old Dec 23, 2016, 08:14 AM   #99
WesterveltVictoryCigar
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This makes me happy. Also makes me think of it as more of an indictment on NCAA hoops. We haven't really been impressive, haven't won every game we should, and certainly didn't steal one we shouldn't have. If we're 32 that means there's a lot of really bad, less impressive teams.
Don't use the RPI as an actual ranking of teams, it's not really intended to do that and there are many better systems out there for that. What's of interest to me is that our RPI gets better on our off days and the trend has been upwards. Historically you need to be in the low 40s or better to get an at large bid, so we're in good shape there.
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Old Dec 23, 2016, 08:25 AM   #100
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Originally Posted by Newman View Post
I didn't think about that when I saw his tweet about them making the bracket. I'll take back the fool part for now but still, he's a guy that normally claims to be more objective yet he has MSU still in it. I don't hate TCU being in it for now but there are more deserving teams IMO. I don't know if I'd put Illinois in either but I think we should be close compared considering how weak some of the other resumes are.
Some of Lunardi's picks have always been suspect, especially early in basketball season. The same could be said about all analysts doing their own projected fields. Bracketology only makes sense as we come closer to the end of the season, yet analysts start doing them even in pre-season to drive traffic
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