Alternative realities: Zook fired in 2009

[Groundhogday]

Given the current struggles of Beckman, some are questioning whether Thomas should have fired Zook after two successive 7-6 teams. If we finish below 0.500, something that seems quite likely, there will be no end of media reports comparing Beckman's first team to Zook's last two.

I would like to flip this argument around. Perhaps the mistake was NOT firing Zook after the 2009 season. Here is why:

• While Zook was retained after the 2009 debacle, he was seriously damaged. Consequently, the 2010, 2011 and 2012 recruiting classes lacked quality depth. We had more talent in 2010 and 2011 than we have now.
• Fan support never came back. Since 2009, attendance has declined every year.
• Even though we have had two winning seasons, in terms of talent and fan support the program is worse off now than at the end of 2009.
• A new coach hired in 2009 would have inherited a lot of talent, a moderately engaged fan base, and an ideal situation to claim credit for a quick turnaround.
• The 2009 class would have been weak had we hired a new coach, but the 2009 class was a scramble regardless. Now we have three straight weak classes instead of just one.

It seems apparent that Beckman has a real rebuilding job, something that will be even more clear next year. That is why, in my opinion, it was a huge mistake for Guenther to retain Zook but require him to hire a new staff in 2009. What could have been a quick recovery in 2010 has become a more difficult challenge in 2012. It is tough for Illini fans, but we have to be patient.

Who would we have hired in 2009? Probably Butch Jones out of Central Michigan. And he probably would have brought along Tim Banks as his defensive coordinator.

[AHSIllini32]

Originally Posted by Groundhogday

Given the current struggles of Beckman, some are questioning whether Thomas should have fired Zook after two successive 7-6 teams. If we finish below 0.500, something that seems quite likely, there will be no end of media reports comparing Beckman's first team to Zook's last two.

I would like to flip this argument around. Perhaps the mistake was NOT firing Zook after the 2009 season. Here is why:

• While Zook was retained after the 2009 debacle, he was seriously damaged. Consequently, the 2010, 2011 and 2012 recruiting classes lacked quality depth. We had more talent in 2010 and 2011 than we have now.
• Fan support never came back. Since 2009, attendance has declined every year.
• Even though we have had two winning seasons, in terms of talent and fan support the program is worse off now than at the end of 2009.
• A new coach hired in 2009 would have inherited a lot of talent, a moderately engaged fan base, and an ideal situation to claim credit for a quick turnaround.
• The 2009 class would have been weak had we hired a new coach, but the 2009 class was a scramble regardless. Now we have three straight weak classes instead of just one.

It seems apparent that Beckman has a real rebuilding job, something that will be even more clear next year. That is why, in my opinion, it was a huge mistake for Guenther to retain Zook but require him to hire a new staff in 2009. What could have been a quick recovery in 2010 has become a more difficult challenge in 2012. It is tough for Illini fans, but we have to be patient.

Who would we have hired in 2009? Probably Butch Jones out of Central Michigan. And he probably would have brought along Tim Banks as his defensive coordinator.

I read the first paragraph and started this typing response because of how much I agree with it (I'm going to go back and read the rest) now....


I'm glad you included who could have possibly been hired because that was going to be a question. Funny how Banks could have ended up here one way or another. I'm going to see if I can find who else switched jobs heading into the 2010 season and possibly even 2011 if it's a guy from a non-BCS conf. school as it's reasonable that they could have switched in 2010 too.

[AHSIllini32]

Some names from 2010 that Illinois could have presumably had a chance at:

- Butch Jones (as you mentioned)
- Skip Holtz
- Charlie Strong (that hire's looking better and better for L'ville)
- Turner Gill (was a hot name at that time; dodged a bullet there)

2011 coaching changes that we maybe could have had a year early:
- Randy Edsall (looking like a horrible choice for MD)
- Hugh Freeze
- Jerry Kill
- Steve Addazio? James Franklin? Dave Doeren (I'm not sure if he was looking to leave in 2010 or not)

Just some interesting names out there. A few that I remember people REALLY clamoring for.

Using my 20/20 hindsight I think it's safe to say that Strong was the best hire of those mentioned here. Would he have been able to replicate it here? Who knows but I know his strong abilities as a defensive guy would have gone well with our personnel that's for sure.

[GilThorpe]

I wanted a new coach after 2009's terrible start and season, but the last guy we wanted doing that hire was RG. Who really knows what was going through his head. Would he have gone for the up and comer coach from the MAC? perhaps, but it certainly wasnt his style up to then.

[illynifan34]

Other changes that off season for reference: http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/c...nges_2010.html

Obviously there were other choices, but Mike Leach was available!

[AHSIllini32]

Originally Posted by illynifan34

Other changes that off season for reference: http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/c...nges_2010.html

Obviously there were other choices, but Mike Leach was available!

That's actually the website I used as well. Mike Leach actually sounds like an RG hire. Former BCS coach, had a little success, got fired...meets all the criteria!

[Groundhogday]

Originally Posted by AHSIllini32

Some names from 2010 that Illinois could have presumably had a chance at:

- Butch Jones (as you mentioned)
- Skip Holtz
- Charlie Strong (that hire's looking better and better for L'ville)
- Turner Gill (was a hot name at that time; dodged a bullet there)

Turner Gill, Charlie Strong and Butch Jones were the prominent names. I'm not sure Strong was that interested in the Illinois job. Given his history in the south, Louisville is probably a better fit even if Illinois is a B1G school. And Guenther at that point in time was pretty keen on hiring proven head coaches. So it probably would have come down to Gill vs. Jones, and knowing Ron G. he probably would have hired Turner Gill.

Originally Posted by AHSIllini32

That's actually the website I used as well. Mike Leach actually sounds like an RG hire. Former BCS coach, had a little success, got fired...meets all the criteria!

I know you are joking, but of course Guenther would never have hired Leach. And you are forgetting that every Guenther hire was an attempt to correct the previous hire. Weber was the anti-Self in terms of PR polish and upward mobility. Ron Turner, the offensive coordinator, replace Tepper the defensive coordinator. Ron Zook, the recruiter, replaced the guy who hated to recruit.

In 2009, Guenther would have hired a strong disciplinarian... hence my belief that he would have hired Butch Jones. Plus, Jones would have jumped at the opportunity.

[AHSIllini32]

Originally Posted by Groundhogday

Turner Gill, Charlie Strong and Butch Jones were the prominent names. I'm not sure Strong was that interested in the Illinois job. Given his history in the south, Louisville is probably a better fit even if Illinois is a B1G school. And Guenther at that point in time was pretty keen on hiring proven head coaches. So it probably would have come down to Gill vs. Jones, and knowing Ron G. he probably would have hired Turner Gill.

I agree that it probably would have been Gill just because of how his tenure ended after he moved on as a complete failure. It just seems so...RG-like.

I know you are joking, but of course Guenther would never have hired Leach. And you are forgetting that every Guenther hire was an attempt to correct the previous hire. Weber was the anti-Self in terms of PR polish and upward mobility. Ron Turner, the offensive coordinator, replace Tepper the defensive coordinator. Ron Zook, the recruiter, replaced the guy who hated to recruit.

In 2009, Guenther would have hired a strong disciplinarian... hence my belief that he would have hired Butch Jones. Plus, Jones would have jumped at the opportunity.

Yes, Leach was too wild of a personality for RG to ever really consider. I wonder how Jones would have been received had he been hired. Hell even if say we hired Beckman after going 3-9. Now this of course requires some shifting around of time as I'm saying had we hired Beckman in 2009 with the same credentials with which we hired him this past December (ie 3 years at a MAC school, wildly successful conference record in his last 2 years, solid 3 years of recruiting, etc.). So bending the space-time continuum a bit, I can almost guarantee that Beckman would be getting infinitely more slack if he started his first season back then the way he did this year.

The ONLY reason he isn't is because of the "back-to-back bowls" thing some people want to hold over his head.

[I Hate Lemonier]

Originally Posted by AHSIllini32

I agree that it probably would have been Gill just because of how his tenure ended after he moved on as a complete failure. It just seems so...RG-like.



Yes, Leach was too wild of a personality for RG to ever really consider. I wonder how Jones would have been received had he been hired. Hell even if say we hired Beckman after going 3-9. Now this of course requires some shifting around of time as I'm saying had we hired Beckman in 2009 with the same credentials with which we hired him this past December (ie 3 years at a MAC school, wildly successful conference record in his last 2 years, solid 3 years of recruiting, etc.). So bending the space-time continuum a bit, I can almost guarantee that Beckman would be getting infinitely more slack if he started his first season back then the way he did this year.

The ONLY reason he isn't is because of the "back-to-back bowls" thing some people want to hold over his head.

I dont think its the back to back bowl thing so much as the perceived talent this team has. I think Beckman would have had more scrutiny if hired in 2009 because there was simply no way to argue that talent wise we werent better than 3-9. Its the main reason many (myself included) thought Zook should have been fired in 2009. That roster underachieved massively. I believe the fans give the amount of slack in direct relation to the talent level present.

[DrewD007]

Yeah, Zook should have been out in 2009. But I'm glad Guenther wasn't the one making the hire.

[AHSIllini32]

Originally Posted by I Hate Lemonier

I dont think its the back to back bowl thing so much as the perceived talent this team has. I think Beckman would have had more scrutiny if hired in 2009 because there was simply no way to argue that talent wise we werent better than 3-9. Its the main reason many (myself included) thought Zook should have been fired in 2009. That roster underachieved massively. I believe the fans give the amount of slack in direct relation to the talent level present.

I don't believe that's true at all. For a vast majority of us on these message boards...actually, re-phrase...for a vast majority of us on THIS message board (stupid Scout) we realize the talent level on this team isn't quite what it appears.

To the average fan? They see back to back bowl wins, a previous coach was billed as a "recruiter", and a defense that held it's own pretty well and wonder what in the hell this Beckman character is doing.

[AHSIllini32]

Originally Posted by DrewD007

Yeah, Zook should have been out in 2009. But I'm glad Guenther wasn't the one making the hire.

Classic rock-and-hard-place situation.

[Sure Shot]

I betcha it would have been Jerry Kill. Who I think is a pretty good football coach FWIW.

[AHSIllini32]

Originally Posted by Sure Shot

I betcha it would have been Jerry Kill. Who I think is a pretty good football coach FWIW.

Yes that would have seemed to be a classic RG hire as well...successful head coach, disciplinarian, reserved type personality.

[Groundhogday]

Originally Posted by Sure Shot

I betcha it would have been Jerry Kill. Who I think is a pretty good football coach FWIW.

Originally Posted by AHSIllini32

Yes that would have seemed to be a classic RG hire as well...successful head coach, disciplinarian, reserved type personality.

I hadn't thought of Kill, but in many ways he really would have been an anti-Zook hire. Like others, I'm glad Guenther didn't make the hire.

Kill might be surprisingly successful at Minnesota, but I do wonder if he can recruit at a high level.

[I Hate Lemonier]

Originally Posted by AHSIllini32

I don't believe that's true at all. For a vast majority of us on these message boards...actually, re-phrase...for a vast majority of us on THIS message board (stupid Scout) we realize the talent level on this team isn't quite what it appears.

To the average fan? They see back to back bowl wins, a previous coach was billed as a "recruiter", and a defense that held it's own pretty well and wonder what in the hell this Beckman character is doing.

It is probably a combo. There are probably alot of people who see the past 2 years and think automatically we should have another good team because of the bowls. This certainly isnt a team devoid of talent but it isnt anywhere near what we had in 2009. For me personally i would be judging Beckman much more harshly right now if he had taken over back then.

I join the chorus of others who wished Guenther would have acted in 2009 but am glad he didnt get another chance to hire a coach.

[kgwasmyfavorite]

Originally Posted by AHSIllini32

Some names from 2010 that Illinois could have presumably had a chance at:

- Turner Gill (was a hot name at that time; dodged a bullet there)

Just because he failed in KU doesn't mean he would have failed here. Look at what Belichick did in Cleveland. I, for one, would have loved to see him in the O&B. We'll never know...

[AHSIllini32]

Originally Posted by kgwasmyfavorite

Just because he failed in KU doesn't mean he would have failed here. Look at what Belichick did in Cleveland. I, for one, would have loved to see him in the O&B. We'll never know...

Gill was starting to lose his success at Buffalo before making the switch...it's fairly easy to assume he wouldn't have done very well here.

[Hoppy2105]

I think one of the biggest problems that came from not firing Zook in 2009 is we did the whole "coordinator changeout" thing. If you're going to clean house, you might as well just clean house. Because we brought in new guys with new systems (which at first seemed to work before the collapse) we're hurting now as our seniors are trying to master...what...the THIRD scheme since they got to Illinois?

Whereas some of our opponents (see La Tech) have seniors on their offense and defense who have been running the same plays/schemes for four years. They are confident in what they do and we are not.

I know sometimes coordinators have to go, but dangit having some consistency with the staff normally is a good thing.

[GilThorpe]

^^ there is no question that some of that coaching turnover has its effect on our seniors today^^

add to that, they all had different things being taught to them in high school as well

[gmjz]

Maybe Zook wasn't such a problem. Maybe Beckman is a one and done! The cupboard is not bare and the Big 10 is very weak this year. I say one and done. Cut our losses and move on.

[Hoppy2105]

Also, RZ may have Zooked us more than we think. I remember thinking that when he left, a disciplinarian would come in and set these kids straight. I'm starting to think that even though we have talent in our upperclassmen, they may still be playing as if they are being coached by Zook. I mean, if you followed a guy 4 years it may take you awhile to shake some habits right?

I don't think the seniors are going to totally buy in and the season won't get much better than 4-8. But maybe a few seniors (juniors this year) will buy in next year and the year after that will then get even better as Zook's style is remembered by fewer and fewer players and Beckman's guys start taking over.

[Groundhogday]

Originally Posted by gmjz

Maybe Zook wasn't such a problem. Maybe Beckman is a one and done! The cupboard is not bare and the Big 10 is very weak this year. I say one and done. Cut our losses and move on.

Is this a serious post? I hope this is meant to be sarcasm, but with no emoticon it is hard to be sure.

[Illini125]

Originally Posted by gmjz

Maybe Zook wasn't such a problem. Maybe Beckman is a one and done! The cupboard is not bare and the Big 10 is very weak this year. I say one and done. Cut our losses and move on.

Well why wait until the end of the season? Let's just dump him now and grab someone else! Then we'll get rid of that guy after 4 games if he struggles...
:rolleyes:

Serious question though, how often does that ever happened in college football? New coach hired and dumped after one year? Obviously ignoring scenarios like AD changes, or Fickell-OSU type stuff.

[hermie1985]

Taking the Illinois football job is always a risk. Odds just are not in your favor of having continued succcess here. More pressure following back to back bowls and even more so on the defensive side of the ball. Throwing Beckman under the bus is pointless. They won't be lining up for this job anytime soon. It will be a long road back to a point where we field some pretty good team some of the time. I believe Illinois needs to gamble more. Sad to hear the story this week about the conservative defense. Probably won't beat tOSU by just lining up with them. Need a deep passing game to keep defenses honest too.