Illini Football 2016

#252      
Not that it will matter for on field performance but this probably gives us a little more name rec. and pub. You know, father and son, who happens to be Hardy Nickerson, NFL great, all that. We will probably hear about it a few times each week on the broadcast. Just little things adding up I think.
 
#259      
Excited to see a Nickerson on the sideline and on the field . Found this article about Illini football pretty good, https://t.co/X6zlUjDVBX

Great article - thanks for sharing! Love this quote: "My son is 10 now," Urlacher said when asked how his former coach would recruit. "If he's still there and he recruits my son, guess what he's doing? He's going to Illinois."
 
#261      
Also loved that quote. Can you imagine what a cruncher Urlacher's kid would be? How many other former players feel a new loyalty to Illinois? That's exciting!
 
#263      
Sounds like the opposite. High football IQ, better against the run than the pass, not an explosive athlete, team leader, etc.

Sounds very Mason Monheim-ish. That kind of soundness will be very valuable with the inexperience elsewhere in the linebacking core.

I see much more lateral speed for Hardy than MM had...I think he will be a faster version and be much harder to get to the edge on as much as I liked Mason he is clearly better to me
 
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#264      
Just saw Gruden tear apart Urban's QB snap counts on his show. Taught Cardell how to properly do snap counts. I have seen other QBs who came from great programs Florida, Alabama, etc that lacked the NFL coaching. I think this is what Lovie and staff will bring, a higher level of attention to detail. Lovie seems pretty confident that there is enough in the cupboard to put out a good product.
 
#265      

KJKobs

Chicago, IL
https://twitter.com/TVallese/status/721868500575330305

So evidently fightingillini.com and the FBS site both had the home game against MSU scheduled at primetime on ESPN/ABC. It's been taken down now. Gameday wouldn't come here, but this has to be a legit leak right? Someone just messed up and put it on the site too early I'm guessing. I'm getting goosebumps thinking about a primetime game on national tv against an elite team at home. Hopefully it's true.

Sadly the leak was not true...

https://twitter.com/ESPNRittenberg/status/727160396067573760

ESPN B1G primetime schedule:
10/8 Mich-Rut
10/15 OSU-Wis
10/22 OSU-PSU
10/29 Northwestern-OSU, Neb-Wis
11/5 Neb-OSU
11/12 Mich-Iowa.
 
#266      

TownieMatt

CU Expat
Chicago
Preseason rankings for all 128 teams:

http://collegefootballnews.com/2016/post-spring-college-football-ranking-128-teams

Ranks us 68th, 12th in the B1G, predicts a 3-9 record. Obviously these things should be taken with a grain of salt, but they're still fun to talk about.

Personally, I think it's a little harsh. I think the addition of President and Nickerson Jr is going to help us out big time on D. If we can be average against the pass, we should be a middle of the pack B1G defense IMO.

Offense is a little more dicey. Losing Dudek and Brown means Vaughn and Lunt will carry a huge burden without many other playmakers. Hopefully some of the young receivers can take a big step.
 
#267      
Preseason rankings for all 128 teams:

http://collegefootballnews.com/2016/post-spring-college-football-ranking-128-teams

Ranks us 68th, 12th in the B1G, predicts a 3-9 record. Obviously these things should be taken with a grain of salt, but they're still fun to talk about.

Personally, I think it's a little harsh. I think the addition of President and Nickerson Jr is going to help us out big time on D. If we can be average against the pass, we should be a middle of the pack B1G defense IMO.

Offense is a little more dicey. Losing Dudek and Brown means Vaughn and Lunt will carry a huge burden without many other playmakers. Hopefully some of the young receivers can take a big step.

I think you mis-read the article. 3-9 was the site's prediction for us prior to last season. This article isn't offering any prediction for 2016, by the looks of it, besides pre-season ranking.

Added in as a frame of reference is where each team finished in the 2015 Season Ranking – based on how good the schedules and seasons actually were – along with the last year’s preseason prediction to see just how close to the pin all the picks were. Also, next to each team in parentheses is its 2015 record.

That said, I think 3-9 is comfortably the worst case/absolute floor for us this year. I think tiers shake out like this:

We Should Comfortably Beat: vs Murray State, vs Purdue
- These should be easy wins. Anything else and I'll be concerned. Murray St may start slow, but talent gap alone should allow us to coast. Purdue is awful and will be game #5.

Slightly Harder, but Very Winnable: vs Western Mich, vs Minnesota, @Rutgers
- These are all games where I don't see any considerable gap in talent. Rutgers is also undergoing a coaching/scheme change, so for me, that takes out the road advantage. We should be able to out-coach all of these games as well, which to me should guide us to a W.

Tossups: vs UNC, @Wisconsin, @Nebraska
- I view all of these as tossups. UNC lost a lot of talent from last year to graduation, and Nebraska/Wisconsin are still rebuilding to some extent. I think UNC is the most likely we take out of these, but they're all winnable games

Winnable 'Dogs: vs Iowa, @Northwestern
- You could easily push both of these to Tossups, but I feel this teams are more stable than UW/Neb currently and were successful last year. While both are inconsistent, I gave them benefit of the doubt here. We'll know if they're good far before we play either.

Unlikely: vs MSU, @ Michigan
- MSU will be far more winnable than @ Michigan in my mind. They are losing a lot of key guys and it will be interesting to see if they truly reload. I don't see us winning at UM.

In my mind, assuming we are able to be effective on offense, I don't see any major reason we can't bowl with this schedule. This coaching staff should be able to utilize these seniors to navigate us to 6 wins. I see it as: Murray, Purdue, Minn, WMU being wins, and then take 2 from somewhere else. I think @Rutgers can be a let-down, and @Nebraska being an L with it being our first road game under new staff. So I'd hope to see an early win vs UNC, and get the 6th from @Wisco, @NW, vs Iowa.
 
#268      
That is an interesting take, LL&P. I'd certainly like to see six wins and a bowl. Lunt needs to stay healthy and receivers need to catch the ball. Perhaps the D will get some much needed turnovers.
 
#269      

BananaShampoo

Captain 'Paign
Phoenix, AZ
I think you mis-read the article. 3-9 was the site's prediction for us prior to last season. This article isn't offering any prediction for 2016, by the looks of it, besides pre-season ranking.



That said, I think 3-9 is comfortably the worst case/absolute floor for us this year. I think tiers shake out like this:

We Should Comfortably Beat: vs Murray State, vs Purdue
- These should be easy wins. Anything else and I'll be concerned. Murray St may start slow, but talent gap alone should allow us to coast. Purdue is awful and will be game #5.

Slightly Harder, but Very Winnable: vs Western Mich, vs Minnesota, @Rutgers
- These are all games where I don't see any considerable gap in talent. Rutgers is also undergoing a coaching/scheme change, so for me, that takes out the road advantage. We should be able to out-coach all of these games as well, which to me should guide us to a W.

Tossups: vs UNC, @Wisconsin, @Nebraska
- I view all of these as tossups. UNC lost a lot of talent from last year to graduation, and Nebraska/Wisconsin are still rebuilding to some extent. I think UNC is the most likely we take out of these, but they're all winnable games

Winnable 'Dogs: vs Iowa, @Northwestern
- You could easily push both of these to Tossups, but I feel this teams are more stable than UW/Neb currently and were successful last year. While both are inconsistent, I gave them benefit of the doubt here. We'll know if they're good far before we play either.

Unlikely: vs MSU, @ Michigan
- MSU will be far more winnable than @ Michigan in my mind. They are losing a lot of key guys and it will be interesting to see if they truly reload. I don't see us winning at UM.

In my mind, assuming we are able to be effective on offense, I don't see any major reason we can't bowl with this schedule. This coaching staff should be able to utilize these seniors to navigate us to 6 wins. I see it as: Murray, Purdue, Minn, WMU being wins, and then take 2 from somewhere else. I think @Rutgers can be a let-down, and @Nebraska being an L with it being our first road game under new staff. So I'd hope to see an early win vs UNC, and get the 6th from @Wisco, @NW, vs Iowa.

Nice little analysis but I will say I see some of those very winnable games as less so now than before Dudek got hurt. Unless someone really steps up it's going to be very tough not having a go-to receiver. I also hope Vaughn can really fill Fergie's shoes and stay healthy, too. I have much less concern about defense now, though, especially with the transfer of Nickerson Jr.
 
#271      

Illwinsagain

Cary, IL
That is an interesting take, LL&P. I'd certainly like to see six wins and a bowl. Lunt needs to stay healthy and receivers need to catch the ball. Perhaps the D will get some much needed turnovers.

Thank you for the breakdown. Seems reasonable. Prior to the coaching change, folks were worried that Cubit might win 7 games due to an easier schedule and upperclassmen, causing an extension. Now, with a better staff, folks are wondering if we can make .500. I know a change in scheme can take time to adjust, but I cannot believe that the team will be less prepared come September.
 
#274      
I understand the loss of Dudek being an issue, but we all need to remember that we aren't going to be passing 35+ a game now, and also not playing in a scheme where we are, borderline at best, incapable of running the ball. I feel incredibly comfortable with our DL this year, and barring injury, expect them to be one of the better DL units in the conference. I think our defense will keep us in games this year as it did last year, and our offense won't be playing us out of games with short drives and bad field position as it has in the past.

I think that the Dudek loss is pretty big, but significantly less so than if Cubit were still our OC. I do think 6 wins is very attainable, and I look to see us in the 5-7 wins range. I'd be very surprised if we were any less than that.
 
#275      
^^^^^This is a very good post. Agree 100%. We had the ability to run the ball last year if we had committed to it at all. Remember Minny game with Foster! It was mind boggling really the play calling. Health with any lower tier B1G school is always going to be a factor due to depth. August camp is critical to get thru unscathed. Go Illini