I think we are in agreement in principle but not in detail. Ranking are not every thing or Kentucky would be a shoo in as national champion in 2 out of 4 yrs. I don't know how their evaluation works (for ranking) but assume they have a point system for shooting, ball handling, etc. It doesn't appear to me to put much emphasis on defense. If it did you could not rate Castleton so far over Johnson. The fit of the player to the system and to the mix is as important as the specific ranking within reason (I.e. High 3 to 4). By helping, I mean they believe they have addressed the problem. Although the player may not be there, they think they can develop him to fill the need. We may learn a lot by the match up of Tilmon vs Spicey in 2018-19. It will confirm both evaluation and development.
Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread (July-August 2017)
- Status
I think we are in agreement in principle but not in detail. Ranking are not every thing or Kentucky would be a shoo in as national champion in 2 out of 4 yrs. I don't know how their evaluation works (for ranking) but assume they have a point system for shooting, ball handling, etc. It doesn't appear to me to put much emphasis on defense. If it did you could not rate Castleton so far over Johnson. The fit of the player to the system and to the mix is as important as the specific ranking within reason (I.e. High 3 to 4). By helping, I mean they believe they have addressed the problem. Although the player may not be there, they think they can develop him to fill the need. We may learn a lot by the match up of Tilmon vs Spicey in 2018-19. It will confirm both evaluation and development.
Here's an interesting analysis, using stats from Kansas from 2003 to 2016. The stats show how many future NBA players were on the Kansas roster for each season, and how far KU advanced in the NCAA tournament. They average 5.2 NBA players per season.
They end up advancing to: 1 National Title, 1 National Runner-up, 4 Elite Eights, 2 Sweet 16s, 3 Rounds of 32, and 2 First Round losses.
Kansas basketball roster loaded with future NBA players
2003-04: 4 NBA players, Elite Eight.
2004-05: 6 NBA players, First-round loss.
2005-06: 5 NBA players, First-round loss.
2006-07: 7 NBA players, Elite Eight.
2007-08: 7 NBA players, National title.
2008-09: 6 NBA players, Sweet 16.
2009-10: 8 NBA players, Round of 32.
2010-11: 6 NBA players, Elite Eight
2011-12: 3 NBA players, National runner-up.
2012-13: 2 NBA players, Sweet 16.
2013-14: 5 NBA players, Round of 32.
2014-15: 6 NBA players, Round of 32.
2015-16: 6 NBA players, Elite Eight.
A few conclusions: (1) Most players, even at KU, don't make it to the NBA. (2) Even with great players, it's hard to get past the Sweet 16.
They end up advancing to: 1 National Title, 1 National Runner-up, 4 Elite Eights, 2 Sweet 16s, 3 Rounds of 32, and 2 First Round losses.
Kansas basketball roster loaded with future NBA players
2003-04: 4 NBA players, Elite Eight.
2004-05: 6 NBA players, First-round loss.
2005-06: 5 NBA players, First-round loss.
2006-07: 7 NBA players, Elite Eight.
2007-08: 7 NBA players, National title.
2008-09: 6 NBA players, Sweet 16.
2009-10: 8 NBA players, Round of 32.
2010-11: 6 NBA players, Elite Eight
2011-12: 3 NBA players, National runner-up.
2012-13: 2 NBA players, Sweet 16.
2013-14: 5 NBA players, Round of 32.
2014-15: 6 NBA players, Round of 32.
2015-16: 6 NBA players, Elite Eight.
A few conclusions: (1) Most players, even at KU, don't make it to the NBA. (2) Even with great players, it's hard to get past the Sweet 16.
Last edited:
Rankings do not work this way, there is no real point system. Rankings come from scouts/analysts/evaluators based on overall talent, and performance. While talent tends to favor offensive players, defense is also part of the evaluation. A tremendous shot blocker and rim protector will definitely catch the eye of evaluators. So will a very good rebounder. It is not the case that defense or rebounding do not earn points or it is not part of a ranking "point system."
Nobody is making the argument that rankings are panacea, certainly I have not made that argument. So it is a bad strawman to argue against. As I said, it does not mean that lower ranked players do not have a chance of succeeding (or high ranked players of failing), just that the chances of that happening are much lower. That is why the regular suspects (e.g., UK, UNC, Dule, KU, etc.) win consistently, always make the tournament, win conference championships etc. Yes, they have good coaches, but the differentiation is recruiting. There are a lot of very good coaches out there.
The point is that is is a huge exaggeration when you lose your marquee signed recruit at C (Tilmon), in addition to Mav, to say that you have addressed the problem/gap at C by signing a couple of low ranked recruits. We all hope they can become stars, All-B1G, and they certainly can, but at this point it is way premature to make that statement. Otherwise, you could have made the same statement when signing Tate, Ibby, and others.
Success will largely depend on seriously upgrading the talent on our roster from the last 11 years. Illini history also shows that the periods when the illini were consistently good also coincided with a much higher level of talent on the roster. You can have a good season with the right players, fit to the system, the right chemistry etc., but to become the consistent winning program (that we are for example in the 80's or 2000-05), we need a higher level of talent, especially at positions 3-5 on current roster. JMO.
Kinda what I meant actually, maybe Ayo is not a given, like many think he is, and IF he is not (his choice), maybe that is where Weaver might come in? Is there links to Frazier, maybe any other player, or OA?
Agree doubtful he comes here, but with all other options why not this one as a plausible one? Worth chatting on here about until otherwise.
Interesting...the number of future pros per year is higher than I would've expected. Have we ever had >=5 future NBAers on a single roster?
Your first point is basically my point. I don't think there is enough evidence to make any definitive statements. You can go back to Weber's last class & tone was equally optimistic. Abraham was the pg we needed, Shaw finally the high ranked Chicago kid, Henry was a steal, Langford under-rated, even Ibby had potential. Same story around Groce's first class. Then the year we had Evans, Brunson, Elijah, Moore, et al and we were wondering how we would fit them all. We haven't landed anyone, let alone see them play for Illinois.
I think Underwood can get the job done, just think it is a large leap of faith to say we are there because we feel really good about the recruits we are bringing in that haven't even committed yet. That said, let's give some credit for pulling the freshman class we did for a new coach, when we think Groce's actual first year was empty.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
think we had 5 in 03 with Dee dwill Head cook and augustine
Deleted member 633632
D
Guest
Deleted member 633632
D
Guest
Kentucky style without the 5* stars.. Length, skill, superior athleticism, and raw talent. But we will get 5*'s
We had 6 in 2003, add Roger Powell.
I agree with this. Conditt is going to make some program very happy over time. May not be immediate...but given time, development and calories I think he will surprise.
Sent from my VS500 using Tapatalk
We
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
BananaShampoo
Captain 'Paign
- Phoenix, AZ
Couldn't have said it better myself. POTD
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
Heady times indeed, with virtually all of our plan A targets visiting (honestly, can't recall a year that matches this one (WRT high profile visits)). Obviously, the staff has to close. Nevertheless, am feeling that this class is going to be VG, minimally.
Like, agree with the teamwork concept.
2014 was better, WRT to high profile visits. Brunson, Jawun Evans, Jalen Coleman, Elijah Thomas, DJ Williams, Aaron Jordan, Carlton Bragg (in-home), etc. Overall, higher profile visits in 2014 but we failed to close on critical recruits.
IlliniDent
- Chicago, IL
Absolutely agree. It's nice to have great options that are actually coming and visiting rather than just hoping that they will be interested. we just need someone to start the train moving.
Speaking of, does anyone know how BPJ's visit went?
well we got 3 of the 7 you listed...which seems pretty good. just no evans or brunson
Who is a better get? Underwood getting Mark Smith or JFG getting Ken Nunn?
- Status