I don't know how you can look at Tiley and see little difference between the other two. Saying Whitman and Michael are about the same - I'll get behind you on that, but Tiley has taken a Grand Slam tournament in name only and helped turned it into one of the most exciting and beloved tournaments on the circuit. 45% increase in sponsorship dollars YoY in 2015. Almost doubling of the TV deal money 14 to 15. $300M+ in revenues per year. He's managing a budget of $200M vs Whitman managing a budget of $7M and Michael managing a $13M budget. Tiley is light years ahead of the both of them in terms of accomplishments and success. It's not even the same game. It's like saying there's little difference between Pee Wee football and the NFL.
You are correct that nothing is ever a certainty, however, in my mind, Tiley is a 2 seed, Whitman a 15 seed, and Michael a 16. Nothing is a given, but if I'm charged with putting the Illinois athletic program in the best possible position, I'm taking the 2 seed every single time.
And, honestly Tiley is light years ahead of Rick George as well.