Winthrop 84, Illinois 80 OT POSTGAME

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

Beat me to it

Regardless, that's an unranked true freshman at PG. We need to accept that that is not an upgrade to Tracy Abrams (who was nails yesterday, our best guy IMO).

Frazier is #101 in the 247 composite, so the "unranked" is a tad arbitrary. I wouldn't expect him to be better than what we've seen from Tracy so far this year.

 

[Illinijose]

Are we as talented and deep as we think we are? Yes, but we have some weakness as individual and team. We have players that can't score and some that can't assist to scores. We have a few that are not reliable FT shooters. We have some that are slow footed in the post.

Will Frazier play over Tejon next year? Right now I would say no. TJ has been in the system for a year and has shown he can be good. I'm not sure I wouldn't include Damonte in the conversation.

When we were less talented we were forced to play games in the 50's. We have players that can score and shoot. For some reason we didn't impose our will yesterday against inferior talent. We were pushing for a 8-10 point lead when we need to try to get a knockout lead of 15+.

 

[Illinijose]

I just hope we don't play ourselves out early of the NCAA, still think we will get upgraded play out of some players (Black, Thorne, Finke, Abrams, DJ, JCL). Still haven't seen Kipper yet. Like I mentioned before to be successful this year we need JCL playing vast majority of minutes at SG and Abrams likewise at PG. Not sure if the hand injury is keeping JCL from starting or minutes.

 

[Obelix]

Are we as talented and deep as we think we are? Yes, but we have some weakness as individual and team. We have players that can't score and some that can't assist to scores. We have a few that are not reliable FT shooters. We have some that are slow footed in the post.

If we have players with all these weaknesses, plus some other glaring ones (e.g., rebounding, etc.) how come we are so talented and deep?

 

[JoeJ]

Sorry, but Groce has to be #1 and by a long margin. We were out rebounded by a smaller team (again), we were unable to stop dribble penetration (again), these aren't isolated incidents, they are reoccurring themes.

Groce's best qualities are talent evaluation and recruiting. He needs somebody on staff who can help him in the areas he struggles (teaching defense, teaching rebounding, in game adjustments, substitution patterns). Adapt or die.

Case and point, look at Crean's staff at IU. Tons of head coaching experience, to tell him things like I think Syracuse is going to play zone. I'm starting to suspect that Groce needs list level of babysitting and his current assistants are not up to the task.

I am on the fence about Groce, but the bolded above. Seems like any time one gets their hopes up, Tiilmon locked up, we lose a game we should win. Seems like it's one step forward and one step back.

The last year we had a bunch of seniors, McCamey, Tisdale and Davis I thought we would do very well but we were nothing special. Made the tourney, but I thought we would be great. Seems like this year will disappoint again.

The comment someone made about Tate playing 30 minutes a game indicating a non-tourney team hit home. I don't think Tate cost us this game, but it seems he is our best chance at stopping dribble drivers, which also says a lot. Seems like we should put an I57 sign in the lane, with a posted speed limit. Perhaps we need a McHale Rambis foul or something.

Let's hope we can turn it around, it is only one game. Maybe Pickett will be the savior..... Will probably sit with T'Jon, perhaps deservedly so.

The one thing everyone seems to agree on is that JCL should play at least as many minutes as Tate. And Groce should have adopted an anyone but Johnson scores.

And SOMEBODY GET THE DAMN REBOUND!!!

GO ILLINI!

 

[JoeJ]

I don't think we're as deep as some people think.

Seems like most here feel were sunk!

 

[jrichisamazing]

I just hope we don't play ourselves out early of the NCAA, still think we will get upgraded play out of some players (Black, Thorne, Finke, Abrams, DJ, JCL). Still haven't seen Kipper yet. Like I mentioned before to be successful this year we need JCL playing vast majority of minutes at SG and Abrams likewise at PG. Not sure if the hand injury is keeping JCL from starting or minutes.

I've said this before, but this is kind of the worst case scenario for me. We have an ugly first half of the season and most people want Groce out. But then we improve, the underclassmen play well (Black, Kipper, Lucas, Finke, etc), we upset a few teams, and just barely miss the tournament.

That scenario really wouldn't answer most questions about Groce. I would much rather see us either look bad all year or make the tournament easily.

By the way, I really don't want to start an argument about what Groce needs to do to keep his job. We've heard pretty much everyone's opinion on that many many many times.

 

[Bleed O and B]

I don't think we're as deep as some people think.

"some people"

is that
- literally every outside expert (kenprom, every pre season forecast) who always thought we are bottom half of the the league team (i.e. tourny would be exceeding expectations)
or
- many on this board who just spent 23 pages trying to rationalize that their tourny expectations might be a tad higher than reality.

GO ILLINI

 

[Second and Chalmers]

literally every outside expert (kenprom, every pre season forecast) who always thought we are bottom half of the the league team (i.e. tourny would be exceeding expectations)

Which, by the way, is because it's baked into the cake that we're poorly coached (in the case of human projections) and/or have been ineffective and underperforming with the same players in the past (in the case of statistical projections).

And if you think the perception game will change with a freshman Jeremiah Tilmon on the team next year, think again.

 

[CAHALL15]

IPFW beat Indiana. VCU lost to a D2 school.

Losing to Winthrop wasn't the end of the world, it didn't defy our entire season, and now we have a quick opportunity to see how this team handles adversity. I think our older guys will be ready to go and I'd look for JCL to hit some timely shots.

 

[JudsonFTS]

I'm not throwing in the towel on this season. There is enough depth and talent to reach the dance and even advance a game or two.

Disappointed...absolutely. Johnson's circus shots don' t concern me. His ability to blow by Tate and us to not rotate over and close off the lane do.

We bounce the ball way too much. It would be different if Tate could regularly break people down off the dribble, but he can't. He is a distributor and why Tracy and JCL need more run together...even if it means a 3 guard set.

Our pivot players hands were brutal. Refs calling things really tight was a problem, but geez, catch the ball.

Winthrop had two guys who could break you down. Obviously Johnson, but Cooks caused issues too. Black was the only one who could handle his quickness and still have enough length to challenge his shot. Lateral quickness is a BIG issue for our bigs. Thorn, Mav and Finke struggled with it.

Malcolm has too often been Groce security blanket. In crunch time Groce went to him and he did not have it. Tracy was getting us good looks.

I understand why Tejon did not get much time....but no time?

 

[Deleted member 11241]

If Groce had won the big ten last year and taken us to the sweet sixteen, no one would be saying he should be fired.

Actually, yes there would be. Some fans will never accept a loss to a mid major regardless. I know you may not be implying it, but I get really tired of people excusing top teams losing early non conf. games to nobody's because they are a top team and have had recent or consistent success. Like it's ok for them to lose but how dare a team that had struggled in recent years lose. Some Illini fans never accept this and think we should blow every team not in a power conference out of the water every time. I'm just as upset about the loss, but it's 1 loss and there is a lot of basketball to be played still. I know nobody dreamed we would have won 6 straight conference games a couple years ago when Rice went down, but we did. Anything can happen. I'm anxious to see how this team comes out and plays these next few games. Go Illini!!

 

[ChiefIllini]

IPFW beat Indiana. VCU lost to a D2 school.

Losing to Winthrop wasn't the end of the world, it didn't defy our entire season, and now we have a quick opportunity to see how this team handles adversity. I think our older guys will be ready to go and I'd look for JCL to hit some timely shots.

This is the only thing anyone needs to read on this thread. Teams lose to teams much worse than them all the time. And its not even limited to teams like us (a bubble team). Freakin' Indiana lost to IPFW!

Faith is something any fan should always have in there team. And not saying a loss shouldn't upset you, it should, but one or two games don't define a season.

Just as we lost to a team 'ranked' lower than us, WV could easily succumb to the same fate. Especially because we have the talent to beat them. It'll come down to coaching and on floor leadership/composure.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Actually, yes there would be. Some fans will never accept a loss to a mid major regardless. I know you may not be implying it, but I get really tired of people excusing top teams losing early non conf. games to nobody's because they are a top team and have had recent or consistent success. Like it's ok for them to lose but how dare a team that had struggled in recent years lose. Some Illini fans never accept this and think we should blow every team not in a power conference out of the water every time. I'm just as upset about the loss, but it's 1 loss and there is a lot of basketball to be played still. I know nobody dreamed we would have won 6 straight conference games a couple years ago when Rice went down, but we did. Anything can happen. I'm anxious to see how this team comes out and plays these next few games. Go Illini!!

I think you need to draw an important distinction here.

There is a point you can reach with a coach where you are rooting for your own team to lose in order to get rid of them. Tim Beckman is an example. The total flukes against Minnesota (that fumble....) and Penn State (ugh, Hackenberg...) were honestly some of the hardest Illini games I've ever had to watch. Those wins (plus the Northwestern one which I attended, and at that point it was all so ridiculous you couldn't help but have fun with it) did more damage to the program than all but a handful of losses.

The Weber era died so suddenly it wasn't quite the same thing, but there was definitely an element of that in that situation too.

I can't speak for everyone here, but my sense is that no one is rooting against Groce. We're all invested in this guy and want it to work. But you have to be clear-eyed and rational enough to say it hasn't been working and after Monday night is up-to-this-second still not working. Hope is one thing, irrational justifications and excuse making are another.

It's time to win.

 

[Tevo]

While this one game against Winthrop is not "the reason" why Groce's seat is Flaming Cheetos hot, a win against WVU or another respected team should not significantly cool his seat. Any team, especially one with as many guys who can hit from outside on a good day as the Illini, can get hot and win a game or even blow people out. I think back to our most recent trip to Maui, where we looked like a FF team for about 3 games, only to come back down to earth a bit during the season.

I expect we'll play better against West Virginia, though we may not score as much. But even if we play well and even if we win, that doesn't and shouldn't change much in the long run. It would be a nice step in the right direction, but the desired destination is about 20 steps that way.

 

[SescIllini]

Folks last game was not as terrible as many have stated. We blew the game with a 10 point lead with 3 minutes left and 8 point lead with less than 2 minutes and the ball. Blame both coaches and players on this one, I for one as a coach would of diagrammed the final 4-5 ball possessions. We shot to early on the shot clock and picked up two offensive fouls early in the shot clock. We than allowed quick baskets on the other end and failed to rebound shots. We threw 2 balls away that Mav had no chance and another one he tried to one hand and loss out of bounds. In addition we played dumb defense on Johnson. Everyone knows he is the star, how about help defense. Tate was given no help on some late drives. Also I thought JCL and Jordan's height gave Johnson trouble, so why keep Tate on him for most of the game? Once again we need JCL in the game to be successful against better teams. I'm forcing Keon Johnson to play D on either Abrams or JCL and not take a break guarding Tate.

 

[Deleted member 11241]

I think you need to draw an important distinction here.

There is a point you can reach with a coach where you are rooting for your own team to lose in order to get rid of them. Tim Beckman is an example. The total flukes against Minnesota (that fumble....) and Penn State (ugh, Hackenberg...) were honestly some of the hardest Illini games I've ever had to watch. Those wins (plus the Northwestern one which I attended, and at that point it was all so ridiculous you couldn't help but have fun with it) did more damage to the program than all but a handful of losses.

The Weber era died so suddenly it wasn't quite the same thing, but there was definitely an element of that in that situation too.

I can't speak for everyone here, but my sense is that no one is rooting against Groce. We're all invested in this guy and want it to work. But you have to be clear-eyed and rational enough to say it hasn't been working and after Monday night is up-to-this-second still not working. Hope is one thing, irrational justifications and excuse making are another.

It's time to win.

I agree with everything you said. Although, I do feel there are a minority of people here that are rooting against Groce and the team. The ones saying fire Groce right now and saying this will be our 4th straight year of missing the tourney after 1 loss are rooting against us, JMO. It is time to win, no doubt about that, but I'm not ready to give up on this team like it seems some people already have. I guess I have become more patient over the years. I think we have a tournament caliber team, and hope we can have a successful season as these seniors deserve a chance to play in the tournament. But losses like this one fall on them as much as the coaching. Would love to see us come out tomorrow and knock WVU in the mouth like we did Maryland a couple years ago

 

[Berg88]

Actually, yes there would be. Some fans will never accept a loss to a mid major regardless. I know you may not be implying it, but I get really tired of people excusing top teams losing early non conf. games to nobody's because they are a top team and have had recent or consistent success. Like it's ok for them to lose but how dare a team that had struggled in recent years lose. Some Illini fans never accept this and think we should blow every team not in a power conference out of the water every time. I'm just as upset about the loss, but it's 1 loss and there is a lot of basketball to be played still. I know nobody dreamed we would have won 6 straight conference games a couple years ago when Rice went down, but we did. Anything can happen. I'm anxious to see how this team comes out and plays these next few games. Go Illini!!

Maybe there would be a few. But it seems to me most people don't think he should be fired because we lost to Winthrop. I think people want to see him fired (most of us at the end of the season) because we've gone three years without making the tournament. And in those three years we've lost many embarrassing games that we shouldn't be losing. And now we've lost another. None of us know that this loss means the season will be unsuccessful, but we do know that it makes this season's start look strikingly similar to the past three wildly unsuccessful seasons. Some of us were Groce supports (me included) that thought he should not be fired last year because he deserved another chance. The loss to Winthrop is a symptom that shows that the disease has likely not been cured. That it won't be cured. So we see the loss to Winthrop as very clear and damning evidence that this team is not what we thought it would be this year. The loss to Winthrop was validation that these past three years were likely not a fluke, and the John Groce just isn't going to get us there.

The above line of reasoning completely falls apart if we had won a conference championship last year. John Groce has never finished better than 9-9 in the Big 10. The above line of reasoning falls apart if we had made it to the sweet 16 last year. John Groce has only made it to the tournament once here. I'm going to keep going to games this year and keep cheering for the team and keep cheering for Groce. I like him as a guy and would love to see him succeed as the coach at Illinois. I desperately hope I'm wrong about him. I just don't think I am.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

The ones saying fire Groce right now and saying this will be our 4th straight year of missing the tourney after 1 loss are rooting against us, JMO.

No one thoughtful is saying fire Groce now, so let's all just put that strawman away.

As for missing the tournament, I'm curious what odds folks would place on making the field as of this moment.

I would say about 35%, frankly. Below 50/50 without question, and I was above 50/50 before the season.

 

[ChiefIllini]

No one thoughtful is saying fire Groce now, so let's all just put that strawman away.

As for missing the tournament, I'm curious what odds folks would place on making the field as of this moment.

I would say about 35%, frankly. Below 50/50 without question, and I was above 50/50 before the season.

It's still really early, I think if you ask this question again in a week most answers will change.

That being said I'd still put us squarely at 50/50. Hard to be too upset with the loss now that the anger that clouded judgments has dissipated. Yeah it sucked, but we had probably a dozen plays in the last 8 minutes that all went Winthrop's way. However this isn't why I'd say we are 50/50 still, just throwing out the notion that game is gonna be the end all. Playing like we have, in every game so far, we wont make it. Making small improvements incrementally though can push us into the field. its gonna take a few more tough games to gauge each players full ability and getting a better feel for each player's role will help alleviate a lot of the mistakes. Sadly, Groce has never proved to make his team (at least at Illinois) stronger as the season progresses. But with a team as talented and experienced individually as this one, you'd hope even a mediocre teacher could help these guys come together.

 

[Deleted member 11241]

As for missing the tournament, I'm curious what odds folks would place on making the field as of this moment.

I would say about 35%, frankly. Below 50/50 without question, and I was above 50/50 before the season.

IDK, I would still say 50/50 but that could just be the optimist in me. Maybe 40-45% is more accurate for me. I just don't think there have been enough games played yet to say for sure.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Sadly, Groce has never proved to make his team (at least at Illinois) stronger as the season progresses.

The first three Groce seasons were all U-shaped. Hot start, swooning middle, furious finish.

My armchair analysis has always been that Groce and his staff are very good at putting the basic framework of a gameplan together on short notice. In short rest tournament-type situations, especially ones where the opponents don't know who they're playing until a day or two before, Groce's teams have done very well, radically better than other situations in fact.

When the intense chessmatch scouting grind of conference play takes hold, when every team knows your personnel and your sets inside and out, Groce can't keep up, as his record both at Ohio and Illinois reflects.

In theory you'd rather have that combo than the opposite, since a disproportionate amount of the biggest games in the season are tournament-type games, including the most important ones. If you can just be good enough in conference play to make it into the NCAA's, being an over-performer there is a great trade-off. That was my justification circa-2014. There haven't been enough wins to put it into practice.

 

[mattcoldagelli]

No one thoughtful is saying fire Groce now, so let's all just put that strawman away.

As for missing the tournament, I'm curious what odds folks would place on making the field as of this moment.

I would say about 35%, frankly. Below 50/50 without question, and I was above 50/50 before the season.

What are our odds of winning the BTT? That's my submission.

 

[zpfled]

What are our odds of winning the BTT? That's my submission.

If we need to win the BTT to get in the NCAA tourney, then our odds of winning the BTT are slim to none.

Let's hope that's not the case. I still don't think it is, but any more dumb losses and I will lose my threadbare optimism.

 

[Adnarel]

I would say about 35%, frankly. Below 50/50 without question, and I was above 50/50 before the season.

I presume this analysis is informed by the product we have seen on-court. At any rate, it's a well-reasoned number. I'll second it. With a court full of veterans, I personally was hoping to see a lot more savvy and heart on the court. The only player who is bringing that right now is TA, as was expected.

Your identification of Groce's propensity for "U-shaped" seasons worries me. I mean, it worries me about Groce's job prospects at the University of Illinois. Should we get another U-shaped season, we are going to get drowned in "fire Groce" posts here, and the national media will be running stories to fan the flames. I'm really not looking forward to it.

If we have a sub-.500 conference season but by some miracle win the BTT, is his job saved? I think so, if we're going to hold to this "dance or leave" ultimatum.