If we're going to have another U-shaped season, we're about to go on a serious tear. I'd take my chances with that :thumb:
Winthrop 84, Illinois 80 OT POSTGAME
If we're going to have another U-shaped season, we're about to go on a serious tear. I'd take my chances with that :thumb:
Really? Even I think that's pessimistic. Flesh that out.
mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
I see 9 probable conference losses. Frankly, would not be at all surprised if we lost our next four and then also lost to BYU at the UC.
Even if both of those are pessimistic, hard to see us on the right side of the bubble under most circumstances.
I guess I don't see why we would be worse than '13 and '14.
5-game streaks in either direction tend to be pretty rare. That would surprise me.
mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
What have you seen so far that would lead you to think we'd improve?
I don't think we'll improve. I think we'll be right around that same area, bubblish for much of the season but clearly on the wrong side when the smoke clears. And as I've been saying, the choice at that point isn't really a choice at all.
That's where I'm at on November 23rd. Let's reconvene in a week. Things might have gone considerably south of there by then.
mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
Depth is only an asset if you're able to effectively manage your rotations to take advantage of it. I'm not holding my breath.
If we have to play FSU maybe we lose them all... but Temple is awful.
Now, IF we lose to Temple and go 0-4 in our next four... this season, in my books, will go down as the most disappointing for an IBB team in a loooooong time.
Definitely. Temple is a team we should beat every time. I think WVU, FSU (if we end up playing them somehow), and NC State will all be heavily favored against us. VCU and BYU are probably tossups. We should beat IUPUI, Central Michigan and Missouri pretty easily.
Worst realistic case is we lose to WVU, Temple upsets FSU who then proceeds to clobber us, and we go down against NC State and VCU before rebounding with two wins before losing to BYU and limping into the Braggin' Rights game with a 6-6 record and no confidence. Lose to Mizzou and we're heading into a brutal early B1G schedule with a losing record. If that nightmare plays out, I think Whitman might pull the plug on Groce's tenure before the BTT.
I think it's more likely that we lose to WVU, beat Temple, split the next two, beat IUPUI and CMU, lose to BYU, and beat Mizzou. Then, I think there's a very good chance we start 2-4 in conference, but I think we should finish 6-2 over our last 8. Tourney hopes will come down to a four-game stretch against Michigan, Iowa, PSU, and Wisconsin in late January. Split those or somehow win 3 and the season looks pretty good.
#3 Indiana just lost to Fort Wayne College by 3 points. Does this mean Crean should be fired immediately? Which is the worst loss?
Liked I said before at Illinois you need 5 things going against you to get fired 1. Wins/Losses 2. Recruiting 3. Fanbase support 4. Player conduct/education 5. Style of Play
I think style of play is fine this year. There is a mix of inside, midrange, and 3pt shooting. Team is trying to push the ball down court. Recruiting is better than it has been. Player conduct had a blip last spring but overall has been good, players are graduating. Fanbase is lukewarm, would rate is a C. Tourney appearances and wins/losses not good. Considering one of the 5 is a check mark against Groce I believe he has this year and next year. Unless the team implodes like it did for Weber, than no bueno.
Liked I said before at Illinois you need 5 things going against you to get fired 1. Wins/Losses 2. Recruiting 3. Fanbase support 4. Player conduct/education 5. Style of Play
I think style of play is fine this year. There is a mix of inside, midrange, and 3pt shooting. Team is trying to push the ball down court. Recruiting is better than it has been. Player conduct had a blip last spring but overall has been good, players are graduating. Fanbase is lukewarm, would rate is a C. Tourney appearances and wins/losses not good. Considering one of the 5 is a check mark against Groce I believe he has this year and next year. Unless the team implodes like it did for Weber, than no bueno.
Indiana's loss is worse, but Groce isn't overachieving with his teams and making trips to the Sweet 16.
Not all 5 of those things are equal. They all have different weights that should be applied. I'd put it at:
1. W/L: 70% on this "importance" scale - winning is what everyone wants
2. Recruiting: 15% - 5* recruits are great but if you win with 3/4*s nobody cares
3. Support: 10% - since revenue can impact an AD's decision to fire
4. Player Conduct: 4% - It's a shame, but winning tends to absolve a lot of conduct issues
5. Style: 1% - Few care about the style as long as it wins. See Wisconsin.
On a 1-5 scale, Groce's scores would be:
W/L: 2 - Using "make the tourney" as a metric
Recruiting: 5 - Using "pull in top 25 classes each year"
Support: 3 - Considering the waning SFC attendance
Conduct: 2 - Multiple infractions last year and the year before that
Style: 4 - Offensive flow seems to not be there but maybe having a PG fixes that
If you take a weighted average Groce gets a 51.4%. I'd say a good coach can maintain a 70-80% and above. Plus, a lot of that 51.4% came because I gave him a "2" on wins instead of a "1" which I think many would grade him as.