I would agree with that.
Illini Basketball 2016-2017
I would agree with that.
WiscIllini
- Madison, WI
BananaShampoo
Captain 'Paign
- Phoenix, AZ
That's funny. Still easy enough to get around, though. Just have 10-15 Krush members buy the max 8 tickets. Make sure they are buying in or near the same section. Should be pretty simple to coordinate. Problem solved. :thumb:
I predict we win out in the non conference. Somewhere in the first 4 conference games Kipper will make a huge impact and earn his spot in the rotation. Malcolm and Leron will continue to throw up 15-25 ppg and 5-10 rebs, Tracy will stay healthy and run the offense while teach TJL the ropes and we will go 11-7 in the conference. Making us a comfortable 6 or 7 seed in the big dance.
*finishes orange kool aid*
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*finishes orange kool aid*
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I dont mind seeing Black take those threes, especially since it seems like he really only takes them on open looks and in non key situations. If he is automatic from 12-15 ft out he gets a pass if he wants to take 2 3's a game. If he can expand his game and hit a three every other game or so, watched out. His stroke doesn't look the best, but ball trajectory is better than Finke's. Eventually a couple are gonna fall.
On Finke--I think this is the root cause behind his streaky performances. His trajectory gives zero leeway. Its so flat its gotta go straight in or its gonna hit that rim hard. once he finds his touch, they start to fall, other than that, it looks ugly. I dont want him to stop, or even change, but him taking 5+ 3's when he's only hit 1 isnt gonna win us games. If he gets hot, feed him, else put up the stop sign on his shot.
On Finke--I think this is the root cause behind his streaky performances. His trajectory gives zero leeway. Its so flat its gotta go straight in or its gonna hit that rim hard. once he finds his touch, they start to fall, other than that, it looks ugly. I dont want him to stop, or even change, but him taking 5+ 3's when he's only hit 1 isnt gonna win us games. If he gets hot, feed him, else put up the stop sign on his shot.
If we win out non con and go 11-7. Not even counting BtT we will probably be no worse than a 5 seed. Better if we win a couple in the BTT.
Record only gets you so far... Depending on who are victories against, i.e. if we beat: MDx2, NWx2,Iowax2,Mich,Rutgers,PSUx2, and Minny, our best wins this season are probably VCU, NCSU, and maybe MD and Mich, though theres a high chance we dont have a single win agianst a ranked oppenent come March. That puts us at 21 wins. Lets say we assume we win one BTT game, it wont be any better than any regular season win. So 22 wins, none against op 25 teams... That looks like a 7 seed at best.
I dont think this is how it goes down, its pretty much the chalkiest answer I could give. But I guess I'm saying there are a few ways we get to 11 wins and it not look as spectacular as you may think. We play a relatively weak schedule this year in conference.
Realistically, we probably lose 3 of the games i mentioned, and win 1 or 2 I didn't, which puts us at something along the lines of 9-9 or 10-8, which in my mind puts us in the same situation--a 7ish seed (assuming we win a game or two in the BTT tourney). While I'd like to think 20 wins means we dance, unless we knock off Indiana, Purdue, or Wisconsin, I don't think it does. 21 wins puts us squarely on the bubble and that Winthrop loss looms its short head once again. 22, regardless of who or when, should get us with comfort.
Only way we get a 5 seed is if we beat one of the top 25 teams, win a couple in the BTT, and end with 23 or 24 wins. But, for a second I'll contradict most of my post here, in theory if we go on a monster streak to end the season, we could definitely sneak a higher seed than our resume would seem to predict. This is probably our best chance at even making the tournament and a late season win with MSU would be huge, regardless of their struggles, because this probably gives us at least 5 games to end the season in a row, maybe even 8. We'd still need a win in the BTT, but gaining steam in Feb always looks good.
Worst (ok maybe more likely) Case: NIT. Making noise there doesn't mean too much, but I'd like to see Malcolm win something while he was here.
I think that people are overestimating our conference record. I think at best we will go 11-7 with a more realistic expectation of around 9-9 or 10-8. That being said, if we win out in the non-conference and go 10-8 in conference we are easily in the NCAA tourney. Although we haven't played a lot of top teams in the non-conference, we did not schedule very many REALLY bad teams. Our RPI will be better than people think as long as we take care of business.
Wins and losses aren't the end all be all but they are a majority. What we should end up with though,is plenty of 50-150 wins. I'm sure we will have a top 25 in there and maybe one odd loss to a bottom B1G team. Always seems to happen. This is just my opinion but I think you are greatly undervaluing an above .500 conference record and 21 or more wins, not counting BTT. Not to mention, like you said, potentially reeling off a bunch of wins at the end of the year. That always looks good.
Tevo
- Wilmette, IL
Which do you guys think is more likely:
1) We continue to play as well or better than our last two games (NC State and VCU) to win our conference home games and have a few bursts of even better play (without any real letdowns) to nab some B1G road victories, thus putting us at 11-7
2) We play several games at the level we expect (similar to NC State and VCU) and a few games at a higher level, but also see a handful of head-shaking losses (like we have seen from every other John Groce-coached Illini team), and end up at 9-9 or worse?
Guessing they were waiting on the football bowl pairings? So maybe soon now that those are known.
Dan
Admin
"By 12/26. Want to see what changes if any NFL makes to 1/1 times, week #17. Fans hate having to choose between their fav B1G or NFL team."
https://twitter.com/BigTenMarkTV/status/806228514240425984
For those who hated our offensive rebounding last year. We've averaged 13.5 per game over the last four games. Per the IUPUI game notes.
I would say some of you were right by saying it's simply because we didn't have the personnel so Groce did not emphasize it. I'd say it's being emphasized this year. And we will need it in conference play!
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I would say some of you were right by saying it's simply because we didn't have the personnel so Groce did not emphasize it. I'd say it's being emphasized this year. And we will need it in conference play!
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I really like the lineup of: Abrams, JCL, Hill, DJW, Black. Not to start obviously but when we are able to play small.
Agree. Essentially you are listing our most talented and athletic 5
I don't want to dog on mav and Finke, but when they are playing our interior d and rebounding are really suspect. I'm not really sure anything can be done about it either.
I think we will finish 9-9 or 10-8 but I think there is a higher chance of us finishing under 500 than finishing 11-7 or better, simply based on what we have seen in conference play the last several years. With our experience and easier conference schedule there is no excuse to finish under 500 though. Hopefully we do well in conference play. I think we can.
Our most talented five is with Thorne not DJW
Interior defense is not good. Finke is a better rebounder than Morgan, though. He is averaging more rebounds per minutes than Nnanna Egwu did, for example. That is not real good, but it is average. About 5.5 rbg in about 21 minutes.
Finke still has the potential to be a really good college player. He is definitely in a funk right now, but we will need him down the line.
I would cut Morgan's minutes right now, though. I would play Thorne, Finke and Black at the four/five.
the team is 3-2 in the harder non con games assuming they take out byu and have the one hiccup. not terrible
Food for discussion: tempo-free stats, per 100 possessions:
It's worth noting Hill and Black are ranked 4th and 9th, respectively, in points per possession among all players in the Big Ten that have a %APP of 20% or above.
%APP is percent of available possessions played. It's a bit misleading because it looks only at the games a player played in. For example, if a team played three games, and a player played half the possessions in two games but sat out the entire third game, their %APP would be 50%. This isn't supposed to be an exact stat, I just use it to cull the guys who skew the overall stats by e.g. coming in at the end of blow-outs and hitting threes. Even so, it can be used to get a general idea of how much a player plays. The green/white/red (good/average/bad) shading indicates the "ranking" of a stat among all players in the Big Ten whose %APP is 20% or above.
It's worth noting Hill and Black are ranked 4th and 9th, respectively, in points per possession among all players in the Big Ten that have a %APP of 20% or above.
%APP is percent of available possessions played. It's a bit misleading because it looks only at the games a player played in. For example, if a team played three games, and a player played half the possessions in two games but sat out the entire third game, their %APP would be 50%. This isn't supposed to be an exact stat, I just use it to cull the guys who skew the overall stats by e.g. coming in at the end of blow-outs and hitting threes. Even so, it can be used to get a general idea of how much a player plays. The green/white/red (good/average/bad) shading indicates the "ranking" of a stat among all players in the Big Ten whose %APP is 20% or above.
BananaShampoo
Captain 'Paign
- Phoenix, AZ
Food for discussion: tempo-free stats, per 100 possessions:
It's worth noting Hill and Black are ranked 4th and 9th, respectively, in points per possession among all players in the Big Ten that have a %APP of 20% or above.
%APP is percent of available possessions played. It's a bit misleading because it looks only at the games a player played in. For example, if a team played three games, and a player played half the possessions in two games but sat out the entire third game, their %APP would be 50%. This isn't supposed to be an exact stat, I just use it to cull the guys who skew the overall stats by e.g. coming in at the end of blow-outs and hitting threes. Even so, it can be used to get a general idea of how much a player plays. The green/white/red (good/average/bad) shading indicates the "ranking" of a stat among all players in the Big Ten whose %APP is 20% or above.
Awesome. Was wondering when you might whip out these great stat tables again! This confirms a lot about what I (and many other Illini fans) already suspected. Malcolm and Leron are easily our two best players. Abrams is easily our top PG even if doesn't get as many assists. JCL attempts a LOT of 3 pointers. Tate is bad in every facet aside from assists (and TJL isn't far behind on that one while giving you at least reasonable offense). DJW needs to work on his handles (see TO stat) and defense (though blocks & steals certainly don't tell the whole story) if he wants to play more minutes. Thorne and even Finke are a step above Mav at this juncture (not sure what's with the Mav regression?).
Can't wait to see updates on this as the season goes along.