Depends on when his current team's season ends.
2017 Coaching Carousel
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Depends on when his current team's season ends.
They have to win 3 of the next 7 to finish above 500. May not even qualify for the NIT. Early out for Groce.
Try reading again.
89illinigrad
- Chicago
I was really hoping the Illini could somehow win this game and get some confidence back, because a little bit could go a long way with this team.
I liken this season to Weber's last, that team knew it was fighting for their coach's life and whether it was the pressure or whatever, they went into a death spiral they couldn't recover from.
Was Groce that much better of a coach than Weber that he could take Weber's players, minus a NBA first rounder, and make it to the tourney?
No, a lot of that was confidence and the pressure of trying to save their coaches job and it seems like the same thing is happening this year. You could see it in their body language back then and you can see it now.
I'll say the same thing I said back in Weber's last year (although I cannot find the post)--I hope the next coach can turn things around quickly, because if he cannot get us to the tourney in year two or three, the fans will turn on him and someone will be starting another thread like this.
I liken this season to Weber's last, that team knew it was fighting for their coach's life and whether it was the pressure or whatever, they went into a death spiral they couldn't recover from.
Was Groce that much better of a coach than Weber that he could take Weber's players, minus a NBA first rounder, and make it to the tourney?
No, a lot of that was confidence and the pressure of trying to save their coaches job and it seems like the same thing is happening this year. You could see it in their body language back then and you can see it now.
I'll say the same thing I said back in Weber's last year (although I cannot find the post)--I hope the next coach can turn things around quickly, because if he cannot get us to the tourney in year two or three, the fans will turn on him and someone will be starting another thread like this.
As a fanbase I think we have lowered our standards quite a bit to now just wanting tourney appearances. Doesn't seem that outrageous from a program that had only missed the NCAA's 4 times(on merit) between 1980 and 2008.
We aren't exactly coach killers but if we don't act fast Weber then Groce will be program killers.
89illinigrad
- Chicago
I am not saying that we shouldn't set our standards higher, I just hoping that fans will be patient enough for us to get there.
Some guys are suggesting we should be in the tourney in year two or even year one with a new coach and I don't think that realistic. We are losing 6 seniors, could potentially lose Tilmon and some of our other key recruits and who knows who might transfer.
Groce had to cobble together a 5-man class when he was hired and ended up with Hill (4*), Nunn (4*), Morgan (3*), Colbert (3*) and Tate (3*). Hill has been great and Morgan finally became a BIG caliber center towards the end of last year. But Nunn and Colbert are gone and many here wish that Tate had left too.
The key will be how many of the recruits that the next coach will be able to retain. Because, if he loses Tilmon and Frazier and has to replace them with players like 3* players like Morgan and Tate, it will take time for them to develop (if at all).
Finally, whoever the next coach is has got to balance the classes better, so we don't have to deal with the 5-6 man classes every other year.
This team is not making the tournament, Groce or no Groce.
There will be some grace period given but basketball turn arounds shouldn't take 5 years, particularly at Illinois.
Regarding the bolded, I agree with this. Ideally, a great coach would come in and make the tournament year one, but that's an ideal scenario. It's not necessarily too much to ask to be competitive in the majority of games, however, and maybe even win a road game.
Regarding the 'hobbled together class', the stars don't matter, the problem with that first class was 2.5 misses in recruiting evaluations (Colbert, Tate, and it took MM 3.5 years for it to really click and KN wasn't an excellent fit either). And those misses didn't stop there.
If the next coach can do a better job of recruiting culture/scheme fits, we will be better off regardless, even if it's not a top 30 class. Our current roster has players for like 3 different styles of play, and it doesn't mesh well (in my opinion), as well as depth holes. A 3* who fits will likely make a more positive impact than a 4* who does not. Especially if you add in player development on top of that. JMO.
89illinigrad
- Chicago
Depends on whether you're talking about getting to the tourney on a consistent basis or getting our program back to where it was pre-Weber.
I think realistically, we should make the tourney by year 3 and should get progressively better from there.
89illinigrad
- Chicago
Regarding the bolded, you have to remember that Groce started in March, when most of the good players had already signed or named their top 3 teams, so he had to find what he could from all of the "leftovers".
Honestly, it depends on the coach. If we hire a mid-major grinder for lack of a better term then the year 3 model and improve could work. If we bring in an established guy with recruiting chops the time becomes shorter
Right, I'm not necessarily discounting that, but Colbert, Tate, and Mav (to an extent - not hating on Mav, he's been a really solid player this year) really weren't great fits, and those decisions didn't benefit us greatly short or long term. And the misses continued with multiple of the 5th years, etc.
I just think some of those recruiting decisions really set Groce and the program back and he's continuing to pay for it. If the first class doesn't fill all the schollies, and we don't have an incredible '17-'18 season, that's probably still OK. Find guys that fit either in the '17 or the '18 class and build the right way, reaching in your foundation class isn't the way to go, as we have learned
We had Brian Cook, Roger Powell, Luther Head, and Nick Smith (in addition to Jack Ingram). You are indeed crazy if you believe we have anywhere close to that roster, not only in terms of performance but talent as well.
We added arguably the most talented freshman class in our history (Dee, Deron, Augie - not just rankings) but the combination of returning and incoming players catapulted the Illini into sole possession of 2nd place in B1G. We have nowhere near that level of talent next year.
I know, I know, but hear me out. I'm not throwing my weight behind this, but the numbers are intriguing enough.
In 01/02 Cook put up 13.5 pts/gm, and 6.7 rebs/gm in 29 minutes, as a Junior.
This year Black as a Soph is averaging 9.2 pts/gm and 6.6 rebs/gm in 20 minutes. Normalizing for 29 minutes per game which Cook played, then Black's averages come out to 12.9 pts/gm, and 9.2 pts/gm. Not bad.
I saw Cook play, and from a talent perspective there's no contest. My point though is that for the right coach, the pieces are there.
Stats do not have the same value/meaning considering the quality of the team. Cook had those stats on a team that won the B1G with Frank Williams, Cory Bradford, Damir, Arch, Luther, Powell, Harrington, Lucas Johnson, and Nick Smith. If Black was on that team, his stats would not have been the same.
Powell averaged 3 pts/gm. Smith 4. Head averaged 4.5. Cook was obviously a stud.
My point is that in 01/02 was a senior heavy team (including Frankie who left early), and those returning underclassmen are noteworthy for what they've done as upperclassman. I think that with the right coach we could see a similar increase in productivity and perceived talent in the players we have now.
If Groce was the coach for Dee, Deron, and Augie would we still consider them one of the best classes ever?
Again with the stats, read my previous. The quality of the team and talent were not even in the same ballpark compared to this years team. Not even in the same stratosphere.
Yeah, we are talking about talent, not rankings or accomplishments in their career. These guys were fantastic from the get go, and the ability and talent of current team is nowhere near that level, under any coach.
Yeah, I didn't see your last comment before I submitted mine.
Ultimately, I agree with you. The comparison has just been an idea to toy with.
peace davids
- Colorado
That was also Harrington's senior year. Although Ingram wasn't on the roster yet because of his transfer, there was big man Aaron Spears and Young Kyle Wilson.
That was 2 McDAA players and a heck of a complement of players. I don't think the roster is even close.
I see what you are saying that a new coach has some nice players to work with in Black, JCL, and the incoming kids - but new guy coach is going to have to work very hard to get them to 11-5, 25-7, and ranked #11 in the country at season's end.
Conjecture. Generally, AD's aren't going to submarine their coaches by hinting at rigid performance standards to keeping their jobs.
However, if you look at attendance and the general apathy of the fanbase, coupled with the 5 years Groce has been given and not being a JW hire. I'd say the conjecture is probably spot on.
89illinigrad
- Chicago
I agree with this and think this is what is likely to happen, thus we're not likely to see the tourney in year one of a new coach.Right, I'm not necessarily discounting that, but Colbert, Tate, and Mav (to an extent - not hating on Mav, he's been a really solid player this year) really weren't great fits, and those decisions didn't benefit us greatly short or long term. And the misses continued with multiple of the 5th years, etc.
I just think some of those recruiting decisions really set Groce and the program back and he's continuing to pay for it. If the first class doesn't fill all the schollies, and we don't have an incredible '17-'18 season, that's probably still OK. Find guys that fit either in the '17 or the '18 class and build the right way, reaching in your foundation class isn't the way to go, as we have learned
So, if that happens will fans be restless because we haven't made to the tourney in 5 years? Will another coaching carousel thread be started if we struggle out of the gate in year two?
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If JW doesn't, he himself will lose a chunk of the base. You can't say "We will Win" and then allow this to happen to your basketball program.
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