Pregame: Illinois vs Chattanooga, Friday, March 18th, 5:50pm CT, TNT

[pruman91]

At this point, the bracket isn't changing. The path is what it is. Why waste even a second fretting about possible matchups when you can enjoy the fact we're back and relevant.

Personally, all I see in front of us is opportunity. If Houston wins their first-round game, great. It gives us a chance to beat Kelvin Sampson's cheating a$$, which will make getting to the sweet sixteen that much sweeter.

I don't care who we have to play. If we gotta face three number 1 seeds like Arizona did when they won in 1997 as a 4 seed, great. Bring it all the way on. As crazy people that spend their free time on a college message board, this is the best time of year. This is what it's all about. It's exciting and I can't wait to see how far we go.

That's some great prose there , my friend ....................It really really is ......................................

 

[GrayGhost77]

We haven't done ourselves any favors to be honest. Not a single time this year have we taken care of business in a decisive fashion against a clearly inferior opponent (maybe only Minnesota?).

If we had beaten a few inferior teams handily (Cincinnati, Penn State, Northwestern) then I think the narrative changes.

Not true. We certainly had a few shellackings of inferior teams. Jackson St, Arkansas St, Rutgers at home (not even a bad team), St Francis PA, Minny, scUM at home, Wiscy (again not even an bad team), Indiana at their place. That's a decent number of easy wins. Just haven't had as many of those really recently.

 

[aaeismacgychel]

This game is like Illinois vs Nebraska. Could be tough, but we gotta show our mental toughness.

Based on their metrics and size, I would say Chattanooga is actually most like Rutgers in the B10 if Rutgers had better 3pt defense and a worse interior and if Rutgers opted to go post-up more often. Malachi Smith currently is like a more efficient Ron Harper Jr if you can believe that (honestly that sort of blows my mind) and Jean-Baptiste is a better shooting lower rate passer version of Geo Baker. As well Darius Banks has similar metrics to Caleb McConnell. So again, we should beat them on a neutral court so long as we play the way we are capable of, but Rutgers has given us some problems so I do get how Chattanooga seems to be many of the talking head's trendy pick.

Really the doomsday scenario here is if we get a whistle-happy reffing crew that calls a couple quick fouls on Kofi and a few touch fouls on Curbelo and Hawkins. That would pretty much negate the advantage we have over them, plus it's pretty much free points for them every time to get to the line as their starters are around 80% from there.

 

[Poe's Law]

I would be really interested if anyone has ever come across a rigorous statistical analysis of whether the bolded (which is certainly true) can be shown to be consistent with what you’d expect from random chance. The tournament is always a small sample size even in a long coaching career. You’re absolutely right that special “tournament coaching skill” would be huge from a program-building and revenue standpoint; it follows that every AD in the country should want our most accurate guess of whether it exists or not.

I guess what one might call “tourney coaching prowess” I’m inclined not o call luck and survivorship bias.

I like how Chris Holtmann will go zone out of time outs to mix things up on a team. However, I can also appreciate when Underwood says “you know what this is a pick n roll team and we have the best pnr defense in the country, why would I over think this?”

I know we aren’t going to see eye to eye on this but I appreciate that we’re all pulling for the team to go on a long tourney run and then we can go back to making fun of Rick Barnes poor coaching (and/or bad luck). And if UT goes on a run we can find somebody else to pick on.

 

[illiniswish09]

Insiders... Grandy gonna be good to go this weekend?

 

[Ramrod2010]

If you look at the comments someone points this out. This framework was done several years ago, and since then most of the champions have not fit these criteria as neatly as those that were champions prior to the framework. Baylor was 8/12. Seems like a correlation does not equal causation type deal.

Still outside of UConn over that time basically every champion hits at least 7 (and if I'm remembering correctly, practically 8) of those 12 categories. You can really whittle the field down based on that.

 

[danielb927]

I guess what one might call “tourney coaching prowess” I’m inclined not o call luck and survivorship bias.

I like how Chris Holtmann will go zone out of time outs to mix things up on a team. However, I can also appreciate when Underwood says “you know what this is a pick n roll team and we have the best pnr defense in the country, why would I over think this?”

I know we aren’t going to see eye to eye on this but I appreciate that we’re all pulling for the team to go on a long tourney run and then we can go back to making fun of Rick Barnes poor coaching (and/or bad luck). And if UT goes on a run we can find somebody else to pick on.

Totally. And I'm not making a case that it doesn't exist either. I would tend to think not until shown otherwise, but that's just a personal trait. There are hundreds of ways a tournament game looks, feels, and runs differently than a regular season game, and there's no reason some coaches might not get their teams to perform better than others under those different circumstances.

 

[Timj83]

At this point, the bracket isn't changing. The path is what it is. Why waste even a second fretting about possible matchups when you can enjoy the fact we're back and relevant.

Personally, all I see in front of us is opportunity. If Houston wins their first-round game, great. It gives us a chance to beat Kelvin Sampson's cheating a$$, which will make getting to the sweet sixteen that much sweeter.

I don't care who we have to play. If we gotta face three number 1 seeds like Arizona did when they won in 1997 as a 4 seed, great. Bring it all the way on. As crazy people that spend their free time on a college message board, this is the best time of year. This is what it's all about. It's exciting and I can't wait to see how far we go.

That Arizona team was so fun to watch. Miles Simon getting into the lane at will for floaters(something I've wanted us to have since) and Bibby was just a magician with the basketball.

 

[BashCtIllini]

Insiders... Grandy gonna be good to go this weekend?

He's got double secret pinkeye is the scuttlebutt

 

[skyIdub]

The only disappointment I'll feel after this season is disappointment that it's over. If we lay an egg at some point I'll be disappointed for a day or so, but I'm just so thrilled to be back where we belong as a program and nothing's going to take that feeling away for at least a couple more seasons.

Beat Iowa twice, scUM twice, beat Miznoz in Braggin Rights.

Reg season B1G champs.

= Successful season.

Go have fun and a run now boys!

 

[Bleedorangeandblue44]

At this point, the bracket isn't changing. The path is what it is. Why waste even a second fretting about possible matchups when you can enjoy the fact we're back and relevant.

Personally, all I see in front of us is opportunity. If Houston wins their first-round game, great. It gives us a chance to beat Kelvin Sampson's cheating a$$, which will make getting to the sweet sixteen that much sweeter.

I don't care who we have to play. If we gotta face three number 1 seeds like Arizona did when they won in 1997 as a 4 seed, great. Bring it all the way on. As crazy people that spend their free time on a college message board, this is the best time of year. This is what it's all about. It's exciting and I can't wait to see how far we go.

This is an excellent post and perspective. I try my best to follow your advice....it's just for me it goes back to the adage (think Bill Self or Roy Williams or probably multiple people said this), that the losses sting more than the wins are fun. And that's multiplied by 1,000 come NCAA tourney time. Which I get makes no sense as just a fan of a team, and believe me, I try to get myself to stop thinking this way, but after about 30 years it just hasn't happened yet.

So instead of being excited about the opportunity which as you laid out is certainly there and something to appreciate and something I'm hoping to get to Pittsburgh to see first hand if it happens, I just think back to all the past NCAA disappointments and how upsetting they were, and I obviously have work to do to get my attitude in the right place like you have done.

Probably should go see a shrink about this, but I've found it's cheaper having Illinois Loyalty to help me through it.

 

[TCTORNADO]

Insiders... Grandy gonna be good to go this weekend?

Hearing it's a good possibility.

 

[WyattEarp]

View attachment 16225

That's some great prose there , my friend ....................It really really is ......................................

Good Post G.Ghost…
Pruman if you’ve never seen this I think
you will…really really like it.
I sure do.
(The Perfect IL-Lion-i? Speech.)…

 

[Bigtex]

Notre Dame, Rutgers, Missouri, the first Maryland game, Minnesota, Michigan, Indiana. All games decided by double digits or a lot more in some cases. I think they are more than capable of taking care of a business but they need to find that form they had in Dec/Jan

Illini last double digit win = 2/5/22
Our schedule got much tougher starting 2/8/22 and the results:
Lby16, Wby7, Lby11, Wby5, Lby3, Wby8, Wby5, Wby2, and Lby2
went 5-4 down the stretch.

according to NET rating, Chattanooga 63 would be most closely aligned with Notre Dame 53 or Rutgers 77 which we beat both by double digits at SFC but lost by double digits at Rutgers.

 

[altgeld88]

This is an excellent post and perspective. I try my best to follow your advice....it's just for me it goes back to the adage (think Bill Self or Roy Williams or probably multiple people said this), that the losses sting more than the wins are fun. And that's multiplied by 1,000 come NCAA tourney time. Which I get makes no sense as just a fan of a team, and believe me, I try to get myself to stop thinking this way, but after about 30 years it just hasn't happened yet.

So instead of being excited about the opportunity which as you laid out is certainly there and something to appreciate and something I'm hoping to get to Pittsburgh to see first hand if it happens, I just think back to all the past NCAA disappointments and how upsetting they were, and I obviously have work to do to get my attitude in the right place like you have done.

Probably should go see a shrink about this, but I've found it's cheaper having Illinois Loyalty to help me through it.

The morning after the Ohio State lost I literally felt sick with disappointment. Then I reminded myself that I've eagerly anticipated every game we've played this year, and that nearly all of them have been intense and exciting, even the losses. That hasn't happened in well over a decade, maybe longer. I'm just grateful that the program is back to that point again, where it belongs, and that I have to force myself not to spend too much time on Loyalty enjoying it. As @sacraig noted, everything else is gravy.

 

[HensonHall71]

I appreciate everyone’s desire to play AZ again. I’ll need to feed on your energy and appetite for that game - I’m totally nervous about it. We have to play better than we’ve shown in a while to even get there let along win. We certainly can but I’m just not sure we’ll be able to put it all together.

If we do get to AZ, we'll be the underdog with nothing to lose - what gives me hope for that game is:
1) Is Kofi going to play worse or better this time?- I think the answer is he almost certainly will be better, he was 5-15 and just didn't play well, they don't have a big man who can really stop him, they just did a great job playing off him and disrupting his shot - he'll learn from that and be much better IMO
2) Belo - he'll be a difference maker

 

[Docta Illiniwek]

Kriisa didn’t play and his backup got into foul trouble. If Kriisa can’t play against the Illini should they meet, that will really help us.

agreed, he was hitting too many floaters against Illinois. His 2nd half was really good against us. I think the real mismatch is Tubelis though. He's too tall for grandison. He's too strong for Hawkins. Also, Mathurin's highest scoring game of the season was against us. Doubt he will do as well a 2nd time around. RJ is athletic enough and tall enough to stick a guy like Mathurin. Damonte is too small for him.

 

[jrichisamazing]

Some torvik stats on the Mocs:

-ranked 85 overall
-fairly balanced team...offense is 80, defense is 105
-they play very slow...ranked 311 in tempo
-since Feb 1st they are ranked 104 so they aren't coming in hot

 

[Zorak]

Perspective check:

The last time we played Chattanooga was in those dreadful Springfield games. The result was… regrettable. Check out the starting lineup. That team would finish last in the B1G this year. So while we bemoan a 4 seed in Pittsburgh, perhaps we should take a moment and appreciate the trajectory underwood has us on.

For whatever reason I remember everybody on that team really well except Lewis, whom I have precisely zero memories of.

 

[KnoxIllini2]

For whatever reason I remember everybody on that team really well except Lewis, whom I have precisely zero memories of.

He missed a lot of 3’s and shots in general, but what else were we to expect with Groce PG’s.

 

[The Galloping Ghost]

This is an excellent post and perspective. I try my best to follow your advice....it's just for me it goes back to the adage (think Bill Self or Roy Williams or probably multiple people said this), that the losses sting more than the wins are fun. And that's multiplied by 1,000 come NCAA tourney time. Which I get makes no sense as just a fan of a team, and believe me, I try to get myself to stop thinking this way, but after about 30 years it just hasn't happened yet.

So instead of being excited about the opportunity which as you laid out is certainly there and something to appreciate and something I'm hoping to get to Pittsburgh to see first hand if it happens, I just think back to all the past NCAA disappointments and how upsetting they were, and I obviously have work to do to get my attitude in the right place like you have done.

Probably should go see a shrink about this, but I've found it's cheaper having Illinois Loyalty to help me through it.

I totally get it. But what if this year we don't lose.

 

[GrayGhost77]

For whatever reason I remember everybody on that team really well except Lewis, whom I have precisely zero memories of.

Same here. It's rare that I'd have almost no recollection of an Illini player. I mean, I even remember guys like Greg Eboigbodin and Matic Vessel being on the floor so for a starting player to not stick in my mind must mean they had very little memorable impact.

 

[HensonHall71]

Same here. It's rare that I'd have almost no recollection of an Illini player. I mean, I even remember guys like Greg Eboigbodin and Matic Vessel being on the floor so for a starting player to not stick in my mind must mean they had very little memorable impact.

That's because I'm pretty sure that should have been K Garris in the box score - that was Kiwane's team

 

[OrangeSoda1]

Pretty sure this team could make it to the Final Four and some people would still be posting about how we don't beat good teams, the other team is scary, Underwood isn't good at adjusting, Curbelo does this wrong, and blah blah blah.

Guys can we just take a moment to enjoy how much we have climbed out of the absolute gutter we were in post 2013?

This is all excitement from here out. 3 (technically) tourneys in a row! We're back baby!

 

[WhiteHorseWings]

Hearing it's a good possibility.

Yikes. If I recall correctly, Gandy was among those who had a horrible game the last time we met the Moc. Gives me yet another reason to dislike the “grandy“ moniker.