100% agree. Huge drop off after those two. Being ranked #10 this season doesn't mean you're elite like it would some years. #10 seems about right to me.
Week of 2/5 Games Thread
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ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Wisconsin did, but fair enough, I'll settle for a win.
That hits on my view of this team. It is an old, mature, extremely experienced (more experienced than any team in the history of college basketball before Covid), team that plays with steadiness and control and has a very high floor from game to game. You're not going to get a 40 minute no-show from this team, they have too many good players who really know what they're doing.
As much as TSJ is the best player, it's a team that has taken on Domask's personality. Unhurried, unfazed, execution of the game plan.
Their ability to accomplish that with Domask as the primary ballhandler is not something I thought was possible, I was dead wrong on that. It's still definitely a team vulnerable to ball pressure as we saw against Nebraska, and it's more "good enough" than "good" as an outside shooting team, but it's not one that is going to be forced to stop playing offense in the half court as I feared.
At the end of the day though this team kind of lacks a knockout punch and teams that really get to a high level, either great teams or decent ones that get hot, are able to put us away.
There's still season to play and as @LvilleILL has accurately pointed out, this team has dealt with a lot of chaos behind the scenes. Maybe a further step forward can happen. And even if it doesn't we'll be an obnoxiously tough team to kill come March.
illinoisgrad1990
- Bloomington, IL
BIG slate of games tomorrow, led by the one on CBS at 1 pm. Indiana and/or Rutgers could really do us a solid tomorrow. Wish I had time to just watch basketball all day!
This should lead to March success.....
In the Nebraska game we did not play our best basketball. We found a way to win against a team who shot 100% from the line, 42.9% from 3 on 28 shots. While we shot 66.7% from the line and 26.5% from 3. Not to mention having a bench that went 0-11 from 3 (that will not happen the rest of the season).
Yes I love winning by 20+ , but having to ability to beat teams when they are playing their best basketball when we have shots not falling is just as impressive and shows how high the floor for this team is.
I think it just, justifiably and rightly so, wants to make a run in March. Sweet 16 or bust this year is my view
Sure, no one's saying its not possible. There are outliers in everything. But if you want the BEST chance to go far, the better seed serves you well. Good seeds go further than not good seeds, on average. Lol
Calling it a one possession game is such a disingenuous take that I shouldn't even respond.
I do not think the final 5 minutes play out the same way if Purdue doesn't have a 15 point lead at the time. But like you said, I'm not here to tell anyone else what to think.
And it was a one possession game, but the team leading had the ball. If they make 1 of 2 free throws, it becomes a two possession game. At no point during the entire game was Purdue in danger of losing the game.
Then don't respond? It's not disingenuous in any fashion. We nearly came back and won that basketball game.
Purdue was very much in danger of losing after we'd stormed back. I actually think it's disingenuous to deny that fact.
Again, agree to disagree here, I suppose.
Rankings aren't created equal though. Take KenPom, for one example....
Yes, we are currently ranked 9th. But we are closer to 18th (Creighton) than we are 6th (Tennessee).
THAT is part of the reason why I am skeptical we are a top 10 team.
How were they possibly in danger? We never even had a chance to tie the game, let alone win it. The NCAA doesn't use the Elam ending. They smartly used the clock to their advantage, since it was on their side.
You were the one that stated "we haven't beaten anyone" and I showed you you were incorrect.
We were #20 before the FAU win and were subsequently ranked #16 in the polls the next week. Hardly seems like 20 to 16 is the "upper echelons" of the poll no? Maybe you're just misremembering.
If your thesis is that Illinois' ranking is coasting solely on one neutral site win, that's incorrect (as the analytics show). And I think it's laughable that you try to downplay this team's accomplishments by acting like "lack of losses" in conference is something to *not* hang your hat on. "Wow Illinois has only beaten the teams they were scheduled against in a relatively down B1G, they must not be an elite team". Nonsensical at best.
I can understand that you have some egg on your face from your bombastic doom posting in the off-season, but that's no need to minimize that this team is in fact one of the top in the country right now *by almost every single metric*.
Ciao
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Purdue's win probability per ESPN never dropped below 92.3%, which was when Hawkins made the 3 to cut the lead to 3 with 14 seconds left. That was the lowest Purdue win probability of the entire second half.
At Tennessee we cut it to 91.2% in the final minute, which was the lowest Tennessee's win probability got in the last 8 minutes.
We've been on the other side of those enough to know we made the opposing fans sweat, and certainly kept things respectable and left both gyms with our heads held high, but we did not seriously threaten to win either game and both final scores flatter our actual performance. Both of those teams are better than us.
I suppose that one good thing about this year is we've had to try a lot harder to be negative about things. Instead of old times past, complaining about recruiting rankings and players transferring out and losing multiple games to Penn State and so forth, we are now relegated to trivializing the knowledge of the D1 coaches that vote in their poll and the computer systems we otherwise trust.
They were in danger because we were within a single possession. Hello.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Right but that was the same week as Tennessee. We hit a new poll high (one we haven't slipped below since) with a loss, that's rare, and reflects that FAU had huge respect at that moment which has significantly dwindled since.
Regardless, glad to see my nonsense has driven a new poor soul to such madness as posting here. Welcome, brother.
It's like some people on this board live in an orange bubble. It's not a secret that we haven't really beaten anyone, nor should it be a point of contention.
Our nonconference strength of schedule wasn't great (#239 on KenPom) and we lost to 2 of the 3 good teams we played, one at home. The Big Ten is very clearly having a down year (we only play 3 games against likely top 8 seeds) and we lost the only one of those we've played so far.
We might be a great team or we might just be a pretty good team. But nothing we have done yet proves it one way or the other.
Our nonconference strength of schedule wasn't great (#239 on KenPom) and we lost to 2 of the 3 good teams we played, one at home. The Big Ten is very clearly having a down year (we only play 3 games against likely top 8 seeds) and we lost the only one of those we've played so far.
We might be a great team or we might just be a pretty good team. But nothing we have done yet proves it one way or the other.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Given how little parity there is among teams in top 20 polls/rankings not named UCONN and Purdue this season, I think it is safe to feel skeptical that Illini are a top 10 team; however, it is also very difficult to claim that the Illini are not around 10 team either (given polls and metrics). The Illini are not alone here. I think it is justifiable to see the Illini anywhere from 9-15, IMO.
Good News: Plenty of basketball to play and differentiate from the pack. Hoping the team can get on a sustained run beginning tomorrow.
We never had the ball when we were within a single possession after the first two minutes of the game.
You can get the ball back ya know? You're trying to say it wasn't a close game because we didn't have the ball with a chance to tie. It's okay with me if that's your definition of a blowout, but I won't agree with it.
So we win two games in a single elimination tournament where luck and random matchups play an enormous role in the outcome or we go back to the drawing board on the winningest team in the B10? Pretty sure this attitude is what @LvilleILL is talking about.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Coaches/programs that "aren't built for tournament success" are a myth.
Signed,
National Champion Scott Drew
A great example of your point is the Nebraska game
They brought it within a single possession and then we missed on offense and they had the ability to tie it. So, if we made a bucket and made it a 2 possession game we were never in trouble? That's just not the case. That's why you play the full 40 min and in cbb if its 2-3 possession game with a minute left then yes a team is in danger of losing. Ofc more times than not the team with the lead will win, but a team can win and still be in danger of giving up a lead
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Illinois' win probability was 87.1% when we were up 3 with the ball in the Nebraska game, due to 48 seconds being a lot more than 14 in that situation. But then Nebraska got a turnover and made 2 free throws to get within 1 by 32 seconds remaining which obviously is much, much more threatening to win the game then we ever got at Mackey and it went from there.
Oh don't worry lol I been here since the days of the one poster who used to pretend he was an "insider" version of an old man/Abe Lincoln, gio568936 with the barbershop Intel, and RooksTaylorFan and Second and Chalmers.
Those were some dark days on this board lmao
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