Bracketology

Status
Not open for further replies.
#526      
So would our ideal bracket (assuming we're a 3) have Iowa St as our 2, and UConn (overreaction to FL's bad loss today) as our 1?

Deja vu
4 out of the last 5 tournaments at least one 2seed HASN’T made the sweet sixteen.

Who the 2seed is (assuming we’re a 3) is very important.
 
#527      
He loves the 😉 emoji. Makes him feel that oh so delectable intellectual superiority. The Dunning Kruger effect that’s oh so prevalent on the internet.
I think he saw Indy do it once (whose smugness also drives me crazy, but at least he’s earned some right to be so), so now he does it to feel like he’s on the same level. 🤷‍♂️
 
#528      
He loves the 😉 emoji. Makes him feel that oh so delectable intellectual superiority. The Dunning Kruger effect that’s oh so prevalent on the internet.
I’m not superior to anyone else on here. If you don’t like what I have to say than you can go ahead and just ignore me…
 
#529      
Yes and we haven’t beaten a tourney team in a month +. We’re below .500 during that time.

That’s a large enough data patch.
Are we going to just erase our quad 1 wins across the board because our schedule/wins over the last month?

We have people who gave commented that Vanderbilt should be considered as a 3 seed because they beat Florida, completely ignoring an awful stretch. Same for Nebraska. Same with Purdue. Purdue was the #7 seed. Let's not forget that. They beat NW, a NB team that has been bad for weeks and a UCLA team without their two best players?

The whole season matters.
 
#530      
So Purdue is now a 3. As is Gonzaga. As is Vandy.

What happens if/when Virginia wins?

You may very well be right. Your confidence is a tad high.
Seriously dude STOP. You are panicking and overreacting big time every time you post in here. And your avy doesn't help. Makes it seem like you walk around with a worried look all day.
 
#532      
Anyone who is saying we’ll be a 4 needs to have their opinion on anything totally disregarded going forward. Absolute nonsense.

We are more like to be the last 2 or top 3. Committee shows again and again each year that the conference tournament results have no bearing on where your teams ends up. Their mind is largely made up at the end of the regular season.

The only thing I could see happening is moving Iowa State above us because we were virtually tied with them in each metric, but that’s it.
 
#533      
I hate that I agree. We are heading to San Pedro (Belize) next Thursday for vacation with my family, and we are all looking forward to watching the boys in the NCAA Tournament in perfect weather ... but my enthusiasm is so subdued compared to a few weeks ago. It just feels bizarre to be staring at a #3 seed at worst and not feeling all that confident that we will make the Sweet Sixteen ... but those gut feelings exist for a reason.

I want so desperately to believe the more optimistic spin on our prospects - we lost to a red hot Wisconsin team in OT, 4 of our 8 losses are in OT with a fifth being a buzzer beater, we still have so much upside if we can just address a few minor issues, we could fare a lot better vs. non-Big Ten teams, etc. I really do want to believe that, and I will probably convince myself it's true either way by mid-next week, haha. However, if you compare our last #3 seed (2024) to our last #6 seed (last year), my level of optimism is way closer to the latter - we absolutely COULD go on a deep run, we still have the tools, when we are hot shooting we can beat anyone ... but if I were a betting man, I would bank on us not doing what it takes on the brightest stage.

We keep beating this horse to death, but the difference between the team we looked like in early February vs. now isn't entirely described by analytics ... there's just something visibly off that is difficult to articulate but nonetheless super easy to see. And if it isn't fixed by next week, we won't be in the Sweet Sixteen. We aren't going to casually out-skill teams in March Madness, we will need the "nastiness" Underwood mentioned to return. ASAP.
It's not that complex. Tomi, Z, and Andrej are all not playing well at all. Other teams now understand that Keaton is basically our only threat to create offense out there, they are shutting him down, and they are daring our other guys to beat them. Most of the time our other guys just aren't up to the challenge. Andrej in particular has been the biggest disappointment on our roster. We are paying him far more than any other player, and he just hasn't lived anywhere near up to expectations.

Our coaching staff, Brad in particular, have been very slow to adjust to situations on the court. Also, given how much we have regressed during the season, you can't help but wonder what we're doing in practice and how productive and well planned our practices actually are.
 
#534      
Anyone who is saying we’ll be a 4 needs to have their opinion on anything totally disregarded going forward. Absolute nonsense.

We are more like to be the last 2 or top 3. Committee shows again and again each year that the conference tournament results have no bearing on where your teams ends up. Their mind is largely made up at the end of the regular season.

The only thing I could see happening is moving Iowa State above us because we were virtually tied with them in each metric, but that’s it.
Committee chair said Illinois was a 4 seed in 2024 and they bumped us up to a 3 when we won the Big Ten tourney (if one wants to argue they did that after the semifinal not the final I wouldn’t argue they’re probably right though)

They do start seeding teams Wednesday or Thursday though so they essentially have to decide a win or wins are material enough to warrant a change. For example, they’ll probably take a fresh look at Wisco or Vandy given their big wins since they were originally seeded
 
#535      
Yes and we haven’t beaten a tourney team in a month +. We’re below .500 during that time.

That’s a large enough data patch.
It doesn’t matter if our Q1a wins were last week or in December. The committee has been clear year after year about that.

As for those talking about whether conference tournament games matter…of course they matter but no more so than any other game. The committee seems to have been quite clear about that as well.
 
#536      
Anyone who is saying we’ll be a 4 needs to have their opinion on anything totally disregarded going forward. Absolute nonsense.

We are more like to be the last 2 or top 3. Committee shows again and again each year that the conference tournament results have no bearing on where your teams ends up. Their mind is largely made up at the end of the regular season.

The only thing I could see happening is moving Iowa State above us because we were virtually tied with them in each metric, but that’s it.
My question to you is this: Had we beaten Wisconsin yesterday and lost by 3 to Michigan today, would we be a 2 seed?
 
#538      
Anyone who is saying we’ll be a 4 needs to have their opinion on anything totally disregarded going forward. Absolute nonsense.

We are more like to be the last 2 or top 3. Committee shows again and again each year that the conference tournament results have no bearing on where your teams ends up. Their mind is largely made up at the end of the regular season.

The only thing I could see happening is moving Iowa State above us because we were virtually tied with them in each metric, but that’s it.
I agree with your first point, but anyone who thinks the entire BTT doesn’t affect seeding should also not have his opinion be considered…
 
#539      
My question to you is this: Had we beaten Wisconsin yesterday and lost by 3 to Michigan today, would we be a 2 seed?
Acting like Iowa State beating TTU and us losing to Wisky didn’t swap us is delusional. So much for they had their minds made up. Clearly not.

We lost a 2 seed in the BTT. But thankfully Gonzaga couldn’t help its case and someone between Nebby/Purdue had to lose. Virginia and Vandy could push the Zags and Nebby down to the 4 line.

Purdue or MSU will get final 2 seed. Once again, Purdue played its way to a 2 seed opportunity in the BTT. Beating Michigan tomorrow will lock up the 2 seed over MSU for them.

Being a 2 vs. 3 seed matters. Potentially a difference between playing a 20th ranked vs. 28th ranked team in country.
 
#541      
I agree with your first point, but anyone who thinks the entire BTT doesn’t affect seeding should also not have his opinion be considered…
It doesn't really affect it that much. Unless you are a bubble team like Ohio St or Indiana this year. I've seen it time and time again where a team does well in the BTT or wins it and they don't get a higher seed. Same thing when a team loses early. They don't all of a sudden jump down to 2 or 3 seed lines. I can't think of any team that is firmly in the tournament have their seed majorly affected by how they do in the BTT. 3 or 4 days is never going to be greater than the results of 3-4 months.
 
#545      
This means the BIG tournament matters. Because we are a 3 now, and likely a lower 3.
The BTT tournament mattered hugely for us.

2 seeds make the Elite 8 more often than 3 seeds.

Purdue potentially steals MSU’s 2 seed tomorrow.

Once again, the BTT matters when MSU/us/PU/Nebby were SO closely bunched.

Context matters. Tired of folks incessantly parroting that committee mostly had its mind made up drivel.

Nebraska may have lost a 3 seed.

We lost a 2 seed.

MSU may lose a 2 seed. Purdue may gain one.

This weekend REALLY mattered for Big Ten teams.

Wisky could have played itself up to a 5 seed if not for a UM buzzer beater.

UCLA also could’ve moved to a 7 seed with a win over Purdue.
 
#546      
We are solidly a 3, because our midseason run gives us a lot of grace for our late season swoon.

Going back and forth over a possible 2 or 4 seed is like arguing with grandpa at Thanksgiving about which of your uncles was more drunk. What a waste of energy.
Ron Swanson Smile GIF
 
#547      
The BTT tournament mattered hugely for us.

2 seeds make the Elite 8 more often than 3 seeds.

Purdue potentially steals MSU’s 2 seed tomorrow.

Once again, the BTT matters when MSU/us/PU/Nebby were SO closely bunched.

Context matters. Tired of folks incessantly parroting that committee mostly had its mind made up drivel.

Nebraska may have lost a 3 seed.

We lost a 2 seed.

MSU may lose a 2 seed. Purdue may gain one.

This weekend REALLY mattered for Big Ten teams.

Wisky could have played itself up to a 5 seed if not for a UM buzzer beater.

UCLA also could’ve moved to a 7 seed with a win over Purdue.
Maybe historically, but I really dont see a huge difference between 2 and 3 seed this year. Geography will likely play a bigger factor than anything else. Honestly, if the Illini can't beat a 6 seed to make the S16, we would have likely lost to a 7 seed as well.
 
#549      
Vanderbilt concerns me a little bit. Bracket Matrix currently has them pretty substantially behind us, BUT they destroyed Florida and have a chance to pick up another quality win tomorrow. I am wondering aloud how far up they may move.

We needed Florida to win that tournament. Just something to consider.
 
#550      
Vanderbilt concerns me a little bit. Bracket Matrix currently has them pretty substantially behind us, BUT they destroyed Florida and have a chance to pick up another quality win tomorrow. I am wondering aloud how far up they may move.

We needed Florida to win that tournament. Just something to consider.

I don’t see the SEC or B1G finals moving the needle for anyone, Vanderbilt is 6-8 spots (not seeds) behind Illinois anyway
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back