Bracketology

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#551      
We have more chance of being a 2 than being a 4.
Meaning: we have no chance of being a two-seed, and a probability below zero of being a four-seed? (P less than zero makes no mathematical sense here, right? .... Uh, right. I was just trying to say .. never mind. I shouldn't have used math stuff. Darn.)
 
#552      
I don’t see the SEC or B1G finals moving the needle for anyone, Vanderbilt is 6-8 spots (not seeds) behind Illinois anyway
I agree. I do wonder the separation between Duke and Michigan for overall #1 seed. Yes, Duke won head to head, but if they lose tonight, I wonder if door to overall #1 opens up for Michigan. Duke does have the recent injury concerns too.
 
#553      
Vanderbilt concerns me a little bit. Bracket Matrix currently has them pretty substantially behind us, BUT they destroyed Florida and have a chance to pick up another quality win tomorrow. I am wondering aloud how far up they may move.

We needed Florida to win that tournament. Just something to consider.
Wouldn’t Gonzaga and Nebby lose their 3 seed before us?

Virginia unlikely to beat a Duke team trying to lock up the overall 1 seed.
 
#554      
I hate that I agree. We are heading to San Pedro (Belize) next Thursday for vacation with my family, and we are all looking forward to watching the boys in the NCAA Tournament in perfect weather ... but my enthusiasm is so subdued compared to a few weeks ago. It just feels bizarre to be staring at a #3 seed at worst and not feeling all that confident that we will make the Sweet Sixteen ... but those gut feelings exist for a reason.

I want so desperately to believe the more optimistic spin on our prospects - we lost to a red hot Wisconsin team in OT, 4 of our 8 losses are in OT with a fifth being a buzzer beater, we still have so much upside if we can just address a few minor issues, we could fare a lot better vs. non-Big Ten teams, etc. I really do want to believe that, and I will probably convince myself it's true either way by mid-next week, haha. However, if you compare our last #3 seed (2024) to our last #6 seed (last year), my level of optimism is way closer to the latter - we absolutely COULD go on a deep run, we still have the tools, when we are hot shooting we can beat anyone ... but if I were a betting man, I would bank on us not doing what it takes on the brightest stage.

We keep beating this horse to death, but the difference between the team we looked like in early February vs. now isn't entirely described by analytics ... there's just something visibly off that is difficult to articulate but nonetheless super easy to see. And if it isn't fixed by next week, we won't be in the Sweet Sixteen. We aren't going to casually out-skill teams in March Madness, we will need the "nastiness" Underwood mentioned to return. ASAP.
Spot on. This roster has the ability to make a final four run. But the way they are playing as a team right now isn’t going to allow that to happen. We just can’t defend athletic/fast guards, and the tournament will be full of them. If we aren’t rebounding the ball and can’t hit threes, we are useless. When we are doing both of those things we are unstoppable. They better wake up.
 
#555      
I don’t see the SEC or B1G finals moving the needle for anyone, Vanderbilt is 6-8 spots (not seeds) behind Illinois anyway
I suspect you are right. Let’s hope so. Need to stay on that 3 line.
 
#556      
I think our staff should get some credit for 24 wins, a 3 seed, and, what, 7th straight tourney bid. And some huge wins, a star player who gets national attention, a top-10 ranking, #1 offense, etc.

I think we should also wonder about blowing leads that otherwise would have gotten us to
27-ish wins. Personally, I think we've been a bit snake bit.

This sounds like a team that nonB10 teams, without the benefit of seeing us and scouting us, will struggle against, mightily, especially if the threes are falling for us.
 
#557      
Watching Wisconsin get their hearts torn out, especially Boyd, proves their is karma in the world.
Illini karma? Or Universal karma?

Illini karma says: Wisconsin suffers a devastating defeat!

Universal karma says: Michigan and all of those who worship them shall be brought low, at the right time, and in the right place.
 
#558      
I think our staff should get some credit for 24 wins, a 3 seed, and, what, 7th straight tourney bid. And some huge wins, a star player who gets national attention, a top-10 ranking, #1 offense, etc.
Yes indeed. And everyone in the Land of the Orange & Blue is in accord. Everyone!
 
#560      
It doesn't really affect it that much. Unless you are a bubble team like Ohio St or Indiana this year. I've seen it time and time again where a team does well in the BTT or wins it and they don't get a higher seed. Same thing when a team loses early. They don't all of a sudden jump down to 2 or 3 seed lines. I can't think of any team that is firmly in the tournament have their seed majorly affected by how they do in the BTT. 3 or 4 days is never going to be greater than the results of 3-4 months.
1) As was posted before, the Committee literally confirmed that we played our way into a #3 seed because of the BTT in 2024.

2) No one is saying it has this extra influence, but it doesn’t “not matter,” that’s just ridiculous. A Quad 1 game in the BTT is the same as a Quad 1 game in January (i.e., important).
 
#561      
It doesn't really affect it that much. Unless you are a bubble team like Ohio St or Indiana this year. I've seen it time and time again where a team does well in the BTT or wins it and they don't get a higher seed. Same thing when a team loses early. They don't all of a sudden jump down to 2 or 3 seed lines. I can't think of any team that is firmly in the tournament have their seed majorly affected by how they do in the BTT. 3 or 4 days is never going to be greater than the results of 3-4 months.
I never understand this point. The committee doesn't just say "well this game was a BTT game". They look at every game that a team plays and judges them against their peers. The BTT matters because you can add Q1 wins to your resume to gain ground on your closest competitors for a seed. No one is saying the committee sees a team win three games in tournament play and moves them up a line or two without context.
 
#564      
1) As was posted before, the Committee literally confirmed that we played our way into a #3 seed because of the BTT in 2024.

2) No one is saying it has this extra influence, but it doesn’t “not matter,” that’s just ridiculous. A Quad 1 game in the BTT is the same as a Quad 1 game in January (i.e., important).
A 3 seed from what? I said a significant jump or decrease not a seed line. I didn’t say it doesn’t have an affect from time to time but it doesn’t happen that often and isn’t going to affect a seed for a team firmly in the tournament multiple seed lines.

You said ‘anyone who thinks the entire BTT doesn’t affect seeding should also not have his opinion be considered…’
That sure sounds not me like you think it has a massive affect on seeding.
 
#565      
I never understand this point. The committee doesn't just say "well this game was a BTT game". They look at every game that a team plays and judges them against their peers. The BTT matters because you can add Q1 wins to your resume to gain ground on your closest competitors for a seed. No one is saying the committee sees a team win three games in tournament play and moves them up a line or two without context.
And I’ll never in your ‘point’ so that makes two of us.

Anyway look at the people in here saying Vanderbilt, Purdue, Virginia, etc. could jump us based off the results of the conference tournaments. That is exactly what some people on here have said. You haven’t been paying attention. :rolleyes:
 
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#568      
I'm curious what the committee does with UCLA and if Dent and Bilodeau's injuries affect their seed. Same with Texas Tech.
Fair point. But their performance down the stretch beating Purdue and MSU helps our resume regardless.
 
#572      
I hope UVA wins so we can hear more posters tell us how we’re still an absolute lock for a 3 seed.

I hope Vandy wins the SEC tourney so we can hear more posters tell us how we’re still an absolute lock for a 3 seed.

The tourney doesn’t overweight the conference tourneys. But they also don’t disregard them. If teams are picking up Q1A wins that MATTERS. Period.
 
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