I hate that I agree. We are heading to San Pedro (Belize) next Thursday for vacation with my family, and we are all looking forward to watching the boys in the NCAA Tournament in perfect weather ... but my enthusiasm is so subdued compared to a few weeks ago. It just feels bizarre to be staring at a #3 seed at worst and not feeling all that confident that we will make the Sweet Sixteen ... but those gut feelings exist for a reason.
I want so desperately to believe the more optimistic spin on our prospects - we lost to a red hot Wisconsin team in OT, 4 of our 8 losses are in OT with a fifth being a buzzer beater, we still have so much upside if we can just address a few minor issues, we could fare a lot better vs. non-Big Ten teams, etc. I really do want to believe that, and I will probably convince myself it's true either way by mid-next week, haha. However, if you compare our last #3 seed (2024) to our last #6 seed (last year), my level of optimism is way closer to the latter - we absolutely COULD go on a deep run, we still have the tools, when we are hot shooting we can beat anyone ... but if I were a betting man, I would bank on us not doing what it takes on the brightest stage.
We keep beating this horse to death, but the difference between the team we looked like in early February vs. now isn't entirely described by analytics ... there's just something visibly off that is difficult to articulate but nonetheless super easy to see. And if it isn't fixed by next week, we won't be in the Sweet Sixteen. We aren't going to casually out-skill teams in March Madness, we will need the "nastiness" Underwood mentioned to return. ASAP.