2017 Coaching Carousel

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#2,201      

Sal Iacuzzo

S
Yonkers, NY
Sal Iacuzzo
Keatts seems like a decent fall back option, but I'd prefer someone with more of a track record. He was coaching HS a little over five years ago. Contrast that with Musselman who has NBA head coaching experience and has been in the college game for about the same amount of time. Still I hope we start out aiming higher than either of those two.
 
#2,202      

LurkLongandProsper

L
C-U
LurkLongandProsper
GForce said:
Remember when we used to hire coaches with 'Final 4' on their resume (Lou, Lon), or were the hottest name in the mid-major ranks (Bill). I understand things have changed with coaching salaries and so forth, but can we at least try to get back to that? Hiring a coach with that kind of background is like landing a 5-star recruit. They still may not pan out, but their odds of success are much greater than the mid-tier 4-star.
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That's the goal, but (1) there's not that many active Final Four coaches right now, and (2) we've fallen a little bit, and are not destination #1 for those guys right now.

That said, I really do like the list we've discussed (really wish Brad Underwood was still available :tsk:) and think we will find an improvement should we enter the carousel (how high a bar that is is up to you to decide).
 
#2,203      

LurkLongandProsper

L
C-U
LurkLongandProsper
Second and Chalmers said:
Awesome, awesome awesome.

Thanks! :thumb:
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Interested to hear your thoughts once you do a full read through. One thing I really thought was interesting was McDermott's offensive success (even without Doug) -- really impressive numbers at Creighton, IMO.

Also, as a side note, part of me really wishes recruiting class rankings would emphasize average grade more over quantity, because IMO quantity is weighted way too heavily in there
 
#2,205      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
LurkLongandProsper said:
Also, as a side note, part of me really wishes recruiting class rankings would emphasize average grade more over quantity, because IMO quantity is weighted way too heavily in there
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I'm super appreciative of you doing this work, so I don't want this to read like a criticism at all, but yeah, basketball recruiting class rankings, even when done well, are worth less than nothing because of how deceptive they are.

There is just no way to compare a class of 6 guys against a class of 1. It's apples and oranges.

Having said all of that, if a team recruits the #4 and #7 players in the nation, and their class is only ranked 21st (Cuonzo's big class at Cal), you are doing a bad job, 247.

What would really be a wonderful resource would be if there were rankings or ratings of some sort for the total HS talent level of every roster for every season. You'd probably have to limit it to Power Five just because of the scarcity of recruiting information, but if you could develop that database and combine it with Kenpom, you'd REALLY be cooking with gas in terms of coach evaluation metrics.

Someday I'll quit my job and become a basketblogger, and the data will flow like wine :thumb:
 
#2,207      

EyeoftheIllini

EyeoftheIllini
EyeoftheIllini
Second and Chalmers said:
I know nothing of Buzz Peterson's UNCW, so maybe his players were talented recruits and a perfect fit for Keatts' system, I dunno.

But after going 9-23 in Peterson's last year, dead last in the conference, Keatts took largely the same group of players, plus a freshman PG he recruited in the spring and four ineligible transfers (meaning they only had 9 scholarship players available), and after starting 5-7 (0-1) turned it around and won the damn conference. A program that hadn't won 13 games in a season since 2008 closed on a 13-7 stretch, including road wins over 3 of the 4 best teams in the league.

That's the single most impressive coaching job on any of the resumes we've discussed.

Am I still worried that year 1 at Illinois would be a struggle on the court? Yes. But I'm probably less worried about Keatts there than anyone else on the list.
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Well the Colonial is a bit different than the Big 10. But I agree, which is why the sentence after the one you quoted was " But if he can keep all or most of the incoming class intact, I feel he's a good enough coach to have the team competitive even in his first year."
 
#2,208      

3 point girl

3
texas
3 point girl
Hadn't thought about Jeff, but I liked the way he played the game. His Dad was a coach & he has Illinois ties in the Chicago area. Not a bad idea.
 
#2,209      

Vermilion Slim

V
Vermilion Slim
LurkLongandProsper said:
Also, as a side note, part of me really wishes recruiting class rankings would emphasize average grade more over quantity, because IMO quantity is weighted way too heavily in there
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Maybe not exactly what you are looking for, but a long while ago in this thread I posted the attached which shows the average recruiting rank for players under four of the often discussed coaching candidates.

Obviously there are a lot of caveats to these, but it does at least provide some degree of insight into the caliber of player that coaches have been getting over the past few years.
 

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#2,210      

LurkLongandProsper

L
C-U
LurkLongandProsper
Second and Chalmers said:
I'm super appreciative of you doing this work, so I don't want this to read like a criticism at all, but yeah, basketball recruiting class rankings, even when done well, are worth less than nothing because of how deceptive they are.

There is just no way to compare a class of 6 guys against a class of 1. It's apples and oranges.

Having said all of that, if a team recruits the #4 and #7 players in the nation, and their class is only ranked 21st (Cuonzo's big class at Cal), you are doing a bad job, 247.

What would really be a wonderful resource would be if there were rankings or ratings of some sort for the total HS talent level of every roster for every season. You'd probably have to limit it to Power Five just because of the scarcity of recruiting information, but if you could develop that database and combine it with Kenpom, you'd REALLY be cooking with gas in terms of coach evaluation metrics.

Someday I'll quit my job and become a basketblogger, and the data will flow like wine :thumb:
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The best I could do is to go back and add in the average grade for classes That's my preferred metric, but I opted for class ranking with # of commits added because this board seems to prefer the class rank, and additionally, there's no way on 247 to re-organize the class rankings by grade (to assign a rank). For example, our '17 class is 11th, but I believe 30th on average grade last I checked, which is a pretty drastic difference.

All that said, I do think the commit #s and class rank is still helpful in this context just for evaluating talent flow into the program over the coaches' tenure.

Vermilion Slim said:
Maybe not exactly what you are looking for, but a long while ago in this thread I posted the attached which shows the average recruiting rank for players under four of the often discussed coaching candidates.

Obviously there are a lot of caveats to these, but it does at least provide some degree of insight into the caliber of player that coaches have been getting over the past few years.
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Right, maybe tonight or tomorrow I can run through and add average grade in an additional column for everybody :thumb:

While this is still being actively discussed, are there any candidates folks want added? I think I covered most of the names being heavily mentioned. (Sorry S&C, no Muller for now unless someone else wants to nominate ;) )
 
#2,211      

Ransom Stoddard

Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
Bloomington, IL
Ransom Stoddard
coryfor3 said:
I'm all in for Hornacek.
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I was mostly kidding, but if JW showed up at a presser with Byron Scott I think I'd have a period of disbelief, then a period of questioning the sanity of all involved, and then quickly buying in.

Just like I did w/ Lovie.

Hornacek's track record is shorter and spottier, but that wouldn't be a hire that would cause me to set things aflame.
 
#2,212      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
EyeoftheIllini said:
Well the Colonial is a bit different than the Big 10. But I agree, which is why the sentence after the one you quoted was " But if he can keep all or most of the incoming class intact, I feel he's a good enough coach to have the team competitive even in his first year."
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Yeah, but given that history, I don't know if it's about the incoming class as much as Keatts probably being the most likely guy to have us sitting here in a year saying "man, I never realized Aaron Jordan and Michael Finke could be impact players on a good team!"

He took the leftovers of a dumpster fire and found impact guys in the wreckage. That's very rare.
 
#2,214      

WesterveltVictoryCigar

WesterveltVictoryCigar
WesterveltVictoryCigar
Second and Chalmers said:
I'm super appreciative of you doing this work, so I don't want this to read like a criticism at all, but yeah, basketball recruiting class rankings, even when done well, are worth less than nothing because of how deceptive they are.

There is just no way to compare a class of 6 guys against a class of 1. It's apples and oranges.
Click to expand...

Not just size, but also doesn't take into account the roster composition and team needs. Illinois has recruited fairly well since 2003, but the scarcity of top quality PG and post players in those classes isn't apparent when you look at just ranking #s.
 
#2,215      

LurkLongandProsper

L
C-U
LurkLongandProsper
Second and Chalmers said:
Today in non-coincidences.
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WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
Not just size, but also doesn't take into account the roster composition and team needs. Illinois has recruited fairly well since 2003, but the scarcity of top quality PG and post players in those classes isn't apparent when you look at just ranking #s.
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Agreed with both, the former is a little more addressable and something I'll do later™ and update when done adding avg grade, but there's no way looking at the numbers to see the latter. That said, can anyone even name a comparable stretch of recruiting faults then Groce's run at the PG position? 2 transfers and a HS kid all extremely subpar, now depending on 4th recruiting class PG and a guy committed in 2008. I don't buy into the excuses narrative, but that run really was one-of-a-kind
 
#2,216      

CAIllini

CAIllini
West Coast
CAIllini
Thanks for digging up this data, very insightful.

It would be great if we could see these coaches relative recruiting ranks (I like average stars vs. total team rank) vs. the average of their conference peers. The current data shows us nice trend lines, but we don't know if a coach is recruiting "above their pay grade". We want candidates who are doing better than expected/typical at their respective rung on the ladder. Overachievers...
 
#2,217      

UofIChE06

U
Pittsburgh
UofIChE06
89illinigrad said:
From his UNCW bio:

"The engaging Keatts is known for his recruiting expertise. He helped the Cardinals compile two straight top-10 recruiting classes en route to a pair of Big East Conference championships and NCAA Final Four appearances in 2012 and 2013. In 2012-13, the Cardinals won a school-record 35 games and captured the NCAA title."

I think he'd do just fine recruiting wise.
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Gill and Rozier were both from Hargrave in '13. '14 was a large class including everyone's favorite UL recruit (Q. Snider). Hard to tie an assistant to a recruit without in depth program knowledge but only Onuaku was from Keatts stomping grounds. He is given credit for Jaylen Johnson as well who is a decent but role player.

None of that really proves he can recruit at the level of someone like Martin or even JG.
 
#2,218      

LurkLongandProsper

L
C-U
LurkLongandProsper
CAIllini said:
Thanks for digging up this data, very insightful.

It would be great if we could see these coaches relative recruiting ranks (I like average stars vs. total team rank) vs. the average of their conference peers. The current data shows us nice trend lines, but we don't know if a coach is recruiting "above their pay grade". We want candidates who are doing better than expected/typical at their respective rung on the ladder. Overachievers...
Click to expand...

So you're looking for annual: National Rank, Average Grade, and Conference Rank? Just to be sure. If so, can do... later™ :thumb:
 
#2,220      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
LurkLongandProsper said:
That said, can anyone even name a comparable stretch of recruiting faults then Groce's run at the PG position? 2 transfers and a HS kid all extremely subpar, now depending on 4th recruiting class PG and a guy committed in 2008. I don't buy into the excuses narrative, but that run really was one-of-a-kind
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That's more of an indictment than an excuse.

Groce offered Tate, and cold-shouldered Glynn Watson. Groce gave scholarships to Starks and Cosby believing they could be his "lead guards". Groce could have opened up playing time at the position by Creaning any of the guys he had at any time, including Tracy.

We have three guys at that position who Groce has dedicated a ton of coaching and resources to. And this is what we look like.

The idea that Frazier is some golden miracle child based on that track record seems hopeful at best.
 
#2,221      

Vermilion Slim

V
Vermilion Slim
CAIllini said:
Thanks for digging up this data, very insightful.

It would be great if we could see these coaches relative recruiting ranks (I like average stars vs. total team rank) vs. the average of their conference peers. The current data shows us nice trend lines, but we don't know if a coach is recruiting "above their pay grade". We want candidates who are doing better than expected/typical at their respective rung on the ladder. Overachievers...
Click to expand...

Again, I posted this awhile ago and it isn't as comprehensive as what others have offered, but here is the national recruiting rank and conference recruiting rank over the past 5 years for 4 coaches. I'm sure others can provide much more info.
 

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#2,222      

ILL in IA

ILL in IA
Iowa City
ILL in IA
Starks was not recruited to be the lead guard. He was recruited to play the 2 and was forced to be a lead guard because of injury.
 
#2,223      

dmac279

D
dmac279
LurkLongandProsper said:
Hey all, following up on my previous post HERE:



There was at least one request for a fuller data set with previous years of KenPom. I went ahead and compiled a spreadsheet with the Overall, AdjO, AdjD, and Tempo #s as well as 247 Recruiting Class Rank for every target included in that post for their entire tenure at their current school, + the year prior to their arrival for comparison. Image sample to follow, and here is the link to it on Google Sheets.

I think there's some really interesting stuff in there worth discussing, take a look, let me know what you think (I am open to requests for additional data addition as well, and please feel free to request formatting changes if you feel they will make it more readable). :thumb:


Link to it on Google Sheets.

HTJYilC.png
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What stands out to me is Keats tempo compar d to Groces
 
#2,224      

bert1991

B
bert1991
coltjames03 said:
Well Smith doesn't sound promising with Groce on his way out
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Stop it. Everyone, just stop it. Groce isn't going anywhere this year or to start next year. I hate losing just as much as the next guy (especially by 20+ points), but I'm not going to put this all on Groce simply because I see some positives where all others only seem to see darkness.

- Top 15 incoming class (with real possibility to add another quality guy in Mark Smith
- Finally have a coach that can relate to student athletes (one of the major gripes regarding B. Webber).

The arm chairs want attribute everything to Groce, but ultimately the players have to execute. I have a hard time believing that Groce isn't teaching defense in practice or any of the other main gripes people have against our coach.

Understand that he's responsible for the current roster, but sometimes kids step up and some times they don't - that's the real risk of having zero elite recruits (next year's class has elite talent)

This roster is especially challenging in that it has been nearly impossible to figure out what the rotations should be...tinker, tinker, tinker, but at a risk.

I know I'm rambling a little bit, but I guess what I'm really trying to say is "let's support Coach Groce" until he's no longer our coach. Realize that "L"s magnify everything just as "W"s tend to soothe.
 
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