2017 Coaching Carousel
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Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
I'm only aware of 1 (his dad). What else are you referring to?
Why is it going to be hard for Groce to be gone? Why would/should JW keep someone on staff who hasn't moved the program forward (nor displayed much evidence that he can) in 5 seasons?
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Groce is as good as gone. Mark it down. Use a Sharpie. He's done. Toast. Outta here. And he's pretty aware of it. FYI.
Speculation or inside info?
Villanova classes last 5 years + current class:
2017: 3 commits, national rank #22, Big East #3, avg rating .9245
2016: 2 commits, national rank #44, Big East #4, avg rating .9501
2015: 3 commits, national rank #30, Big East #4, avg rating .9303 <-- Brunson
2014: 2 commits, national rank #46, Big East #5, avg rating .9642
2013: 3 commits, national rank #32, Big East #2, avg rating .9170
2012: 3 commits, national rank #30, Big East #5, avg rating .9340
Is Villanova's talent better? Yes, the data supports that, but not by a large margin.
Is Villanova a team with "elite talent"? No, the data does not support that.
Is Villanova significantly better coached than we are? Absolutely.
At some point, we can't continue making the claim that we don't have the talent, right? I mean, the numbers are right there for you to look at. Please actually use them! I know the next point is "that talent was overrated" or something because they haven't produced (yet), but our development has been poor, and if we don't trust old rankings in hindsight, we need to stop declaring every kid that we recruit underrated until they actually show us something.
Not my OWN inside info, but I've talked to someone who's familiar. This same person said a while ago that Groce was safe even if Illinois barely missed the NCAA Tourney. He's now saying that's changed. The recent B1G blowouts have turned the tide against him. He knows he's likely gone, barring a miracle run to end the year.
The tables don't show that. They are affected by the fact that there were 5 recruits in the 2012-13 and 2014-15. Compare the average grade of the recruit in 2013-14 when we were no. 8 in conf. to that of 2012-13 and 2014-15 when we were nos. 3 and 2 respectively.
What the average grade shows is that next year's class of 4 is very good and very deep in comparison to prior classes.
JG is not stupid. He knows the situation and knows fully well he needs something to hang his hat on to be here next year. What that something is only JW himself knows but whatever it is it's more than what we've been shown so far.
No, no. It'll definitely happen this time.
I'm still taking the average grade in comparison. Compared to these other coaches, Groce is under-performing. Groce is practically one of the few with average grades consistently in the 90s yet, has the least to show for it compared to some of the other coaches
:thumb:
Next years' class is his best yet, but what those numbers tell you is he has had more than enough talent to succeed, which he has not
mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
For the love of God, one would hope.
Thank you for doing the yeoman's work on this.
89illinigrad
- Chicago
I think the main reason Groce is underperforming is the lack of a PG. Henson had Harper, Douglas, Richardson, Wysinger, Bardo, Smith, Clemons, Garris and Keene, Kruger did well with Heldman and Turner, Self had Frankie, and Weber had Dee/Deron and McCamey. With the exception of Heldman/Turner, all of these guys were Top 100 recruits, including a few McDonalds AA.
It just shows how the inability to land a quality PG has hurt Groce.
very welcome!
I would agree that hasn't helped him, but it still doesn't explain that we haven't found any means to consistently get shots at the rim OR clean looks from 3. Especially the former, though. That is a real killer. And it definitely doesn't explain the absolute lack of defensive success post-Egwu
I have to wonder if Dan Muller may become a candidate at some point. ISU is playing really well, and each year he's been there they have improved. MVC records of 8-10, 9-9, 11-7, 12-6, and now 7-0.
When you consider he and JW grew up in the same town and are only a few years apart in age, they have to know each other pretty well.
When you consider he and JW grew up in the same town and are only a few years apart in age, they have to know each other pretty well.
89illinigrad
- Chicago
You don't think having a quality PG impacts the ability to get shots at the rim OR clean looks from 3? A good PG that can break down the defense, cause the defense to rotate or hedge, absolutely creates open shots at the rim or clean looks from 3.
Name one PG that Groce has had that could consistently do that?
We have yet to land a PG who can do that (not for a lack of trying) and that may ultimately lead to the end of the Groce era.
If Whitman is so far down his list that Dan Muller is the best we can get, just sign Groce to an extension and send him to "how to be a basketball coach" training.
Added Muller to the spreadsheet.
My big concern is he hasn't really done much OOC or had consistent non-cons. The recruiting, while he seems to have done a decent job evaluating talent (Reggie Lynch and Zeisloft both wound up as contributors at B10 schools and Lynch is one of the better rim protectors around), hasn't been super high level and the results (as compared to Chattanooga, UNCW namely) haven't been quite consistent enough to overcome that IMO. The two 18 win seasons sandwiching his 22 win season, while solid MVC seasons, weren't all that great nationally as evidenced by the very poor KenPom rankings.
Personally, I think it's too early for Muller.
Also, a note for the MVC - it appears fairly common teams in the MVC don't take recruits, so some of the conference rankings where they are 4th, for example, is closer to last than first in participating schools, per se. Additionally, 247's lowest score for a ranked prospect is 0.700, so those 0.700 averages are classes that have the lowest grade for a ranked prospect as their best prospect.
I acknowledged that the lack of PG has not helped him at all. However, I don't think it excuses the ineptitude of our offenses under Groce, and at some point you HAVE to be able to find a way to get high value shots from 3 point range or the paint. As specified by Tyler on IlliniBoard, we are 348th out of 351 in both shots at the rim and % of shots from midrange (iirc). That is not something you attribute to just not having a PG.
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Not only "may ultimately", but it WILL lead to the end of the Groce era at the end of this season. #HeGawn
Foggy Notion
- San Francisco
Don't be too shy about your opinion, Kajagoogoo.
mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
Oh, hush hush!
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