2017 Coaching Carousel
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Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Ugh, just looked up some old articles on "the best jobs" from 2012, and they were painful to read. Even more painful is the fact that we took the 50% of people who thought we could be an elite destination and turned them to the dark side with Mike Thomas' hiring process. :tsk:
Nothing would make me happier than for Whitman to "pull a Lovie," so to speak, and state loud and clear that Illinois basketball has returned to form.
Nothing would make me happier than for Whitman to "pull a Lovie," so to speak, and state loud and clear that Illinois basketball has returned to form.
Actually if the Bulls decide to move to a rebuild, I think it would have the opposite effect & Hoiberg would be even more likely to be safe. I don't believe he's going anywhere in either case.
If the decision is not to fire Groce, it would have nothing to do with the desire to keep him for a year just to fire him the year after because we could not find an acceptable replacement this year. If the decision is not to fire Groce, it would mean that UI has decided to give him another chance for at least next year. The whole premise of "we will fire Groce only if we have a replacement already in place" is a dumb argument with no basis. If schools could do that, every school would do that. Especially schools with more resources, money, connections, and larger network.
As far as reaction of fans or others, the reaction would be based on whether Groce is retained on not this year. It is a hypocritical statement to say, I want Groce fired, but if he is not fired I want the University to give him a lucrative contract with large guarantees and buyouts. Are we crazy here? The exact opposite is true, if UI decides not to fire Groce, at least do not give him a lucrative contract with large guarantees and buyouts like we did with Weber and ended up paying handsomely for 3 years past his removal.
I have been around Div. I recruits and AAU for many years, and recruits care about playing for a school and coach, also influenced by whether they perceive a coach is safe or not. But they couldn't care less about the guarantees or buyouts and financial terms schools would have to pay if they fire a coach. That is irrelevant to them. Just because Weber had a large contract, guarantees, buyout made zero difference in his recruiting evident by his empty 2012 class.
As far as Cubit, it is a totally different situation. Cubit was hired as a "stop gap" because we did not have an AD to make a decision and negotiate with candidates. Period. Groce was hired as a legitimate head coach and was supported by the current AD (contrary to Cubit). The decision to not fire him would indicate that UI and AD have decided to give him another chance. Not a decision to keep him with the intention of firing him next year. The same person who will make the decision this year (Whitman) will be the decision maker next year, contrary to the Cubit situation.
Really, I didn't see that anywhere.
I believe his points are:
1) The contract isn't the reason to keep or fire Groce; it is insignificant in the grand scheme of things, the extension would be on our terms
2) Groce is on the hot seat regardless, you can't fix that or fake it with an extension
3) Fire/keep Groce based on merits, not on contract.
I think Groce should be fired if and only if JW has someone better in mind that he's confident he can get. Honestly I think we'll be a good team in the next few years even if Groce stays. We have a higher level of talent coming in next year than Groce has ever had and our freshmen this year are looking like studs. If we fire Groce we run the risk of losing these potentially program-changing recruits.
IlliniInOK
- no longer in OK! Centralia, IL
The recruits are not likely to be program-changing. The Shaw-Henry-Egwu-Abrams class was ranked much higher than everyone but Tilmon, whose impact is likely to be most similar to that of Meyers.
Also, Groce is either the 13th or 14th best coach on the conference. He has shown that he is in over his head. I would rather take the chance that a guy like Keatts can make the jump than to try and see if the past 4 years were a mirage and Groce magically becomes a good coach.
LOL... nice try but that was not my argument, neither was your point either.
My argument to your point was that the contract is not a big issue in the decision (no matter what that decision may be), other factors are far more significant. Neither do you lock yourself 3+ years (or whatever the contract will be - Groce has no leverage and UI can dictate terms). Similarly, the fact that Groce still has a contract and you can take a decision to fire him this year (very possible) shows that contract only affects the financials but does not guarantee that Groce will be the UI coach the next 2 years.
rmlsr
- El Paso,IL
Out of all of these so called "program changing" 1 of them is ranked in Rivals top 100.
Tilmon #25 T.Frazier #103 D.Williams #108 J.Pickett (Not Rated) Also worth noting Williams coming off a serious knee injury so we will see if he's a 100% come next season. We have several guys already on the roster who were ranked much higher than these guys except Tilmon although L.Black & JC.Lands were ranked fairly close to Tilmon they were ranked #38 & #39.
89illinigrad
- Chicago
While true the main thing we have been missing is a scoring PG and an athletic Center, which is what Frazier and Tilmon provide. It took Groce 5 years to land some impact talent at these key positions, so it's understandable that people are worried about losing them
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Weber vs. Groce
In case anyone thinks we were right in firing Bruce, but shouldn't fire Groce:
Weber won 20 or more games 7 out of 9 years.
Groce won 20 or more in 2 of 5 years.
Weber had a .500 or better record (in the Big) 7 of 9 years
Groce is .500 or better in 1 of 5 years.
Weber’s overall win % was .675
Groce overall is .578.
Weber’s Big 10 win % was .578 (89-65)
Groce Big 10 win % is .386. (32-52)
This is not an argument to bring Bruce back. This is an argument to fire Groce 15 minutes after the season ends.
In case anyone thinks we were right in firing Bruce, but shouldn't fire Groce:
Weber won 20 or more games 7 out of 9 years.
Groce won 20 or more in 2 of 5 years.
Weber had a .500 or better record (in the Big) 7 of 9 years
Groce is .500 or better in 1 of 5 years.
Weber’s overall win % was .675
Groce overall is .578.
Weber’s Big 10 win % was .578 (89-65)
Groce Big 10 win % is .386. (32-52)
This is not an argument to bring Bruce back. This is an argument to fire Groce 15 minutes after the season ends.
Great post. Drives the point home in simple terms.
Or maybe it's just cherry picking the data.
Looking at win %
Lon Kruger .628
Self .765
Weber yr 1-3 .848
yr 4-6 .700
yr 7-9 .569
Weber was fired for direction and disastrous last season.
I agree completely, we haven't been able to win because of terrible point guard play, we now have Lucas and Frazier, they will be as good as any point guards in the league, which is quite an upgrade from the worst point guard position in the league. Tillmon will be a real good big, the best we have had in a while so I think things are getting much better
The problem is you don't know whether the next coach is going to be John Groce or Bill Self. There is no certainty. And you don't know if you will find that coach next year either.
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Why do you believe waiting a year would improve our chances of a great hire?
jmwillini
- Tolono, IL
Only part way through this, but some of the posts are hilarious in hindsight.
- Much support for Josh Pastner if Shaka couldn't be had.
- Marshall is too much like Bruce.
- Many not sold on Brad Stevens.
- Much trust in Mike Thomas to make a great hire as the Beckman hire is looking so good.
You should worry why everyone else gets it as mentioned by other posts, and you don't. If JW decides to keep Groce he will be making a commitment. This is not a binary decision where you either fire him or give him a multi-year lucrative contract with huge guarantees and buyouts. The latter would simply be extremely dumb, you do not even believe it, you just want to build a straw man just to argue against it, and not many are buying it.
OK, if you call it cherry picking let's really cherry pick the data. Instead of leaving Groces numbers out like you did, just throw Weber's numbers out. Ignore everything else and just look at Groces numbers. Are they even remotely satisfactory? They're horrible!
And more importantly, one needs to consider the starting and end points. If you consider the program Weber inherited in 2003 and the one he delivered in 2012 it is by far the biggest drop and detriment in program direction. Of course that does not excuse Groce for being unable to to turn the program around.
Come on. Back room deals have always been a part of hiring a coach. By now, I would guess, JW knows whether he has a chance at any of his top targets. If he gauges the situation and feels it is a tough sell, then he will wait. As another poster pointed out, you don't want to lock into a 4-5 year deal with a guy you are uncertain of.
Groce may not be one of the best coaches, and certainly has his faults, but I am going to call BS on this.
Year 1: He took a 6-12 B1G team that lost its lottery pick center as close to the Sweet 16 as you can get without getting there.
Year 2: He got a team with only two returning scholarship players to play together by year end and to the NIT.
Year 3: He took a team with a sophomore Jaylon Tate as starting PG and numerous injuries and suspensions to a 9-9 finish in the B1G.
Year 4: Not sure you can even consider this year - a total disaster of injuries - most of the year there were only 8 or 9 scholarship players dressed, 4 of whom were freshmen. But I guess he is the worst coach in the Power 5 because he couldn't coach them up to beat a majority of the power 5 teams they played.
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