I should know better than to say "I can't find any way" vs. "any plausible way" in this forum. My mistake.
If someone has what they think is a plausible line, e.g 5% or higher, I'd appreciate seeing a screenshot of the picks and results.
Big Ten Tournament Discussion
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If someone has what they think is a plausible line, e.g 5% or higher, I'd appreciate seeing a screenshot of the picks and results.
Sorry. I read it as you saying "mathematically eliminated". Agree with you, it's not very plausible.I should know better than to say "I can't find any way" vs. "any plausible way" in this forum. My mistake.
If someone has what they think is a plausible line, e.g 5% or higher, I'd appreciate seeing a screenshot of the picks and results.
Here's one scenario. Assumes Wisconsin beats Iowa (up 10 at time of post). Need Maryland and Rutgers each to lose twice. If Penn St were to beat them both at home and Northwesern beat them both on the road, here's how it would shake out.I should know better than to say "I can't find any way" vs. "any plausible way" in this forum. My mistake.
If someone has what they think is a plausible line, e.g 5% or higher, I'd appreciate seeing a screenshot of the picks and results.
Most of the simulations I've run show us very likely at the 5/6/7 line. There are multiple scenarios in which we can finish anywhere from 1-4, and also from 8-11. It's almost as clear a picture as we had back in December 
IlliniMike_Aurora
Straight outta Champaign
agreed if they lose to us tonite, they lose at Maryland this wknd, they looked good last nite (although it was Minny) - Maryland in heavy contention for the double bye
201154JC
- Rockford, IL
Nice effort and duly appreciated. And probably close to how things will pan out.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Quick reminder again of our most likely seeds and when we would play, in case you are like me and are hoping to attend a game at the UC while missing minimal work. By the way, the approximate times are because it simply lists "25 minutes after previous game."
2-Seed: 5:30 pm on Friday, ~2:30 pm on Saturday
3-Seed: ~8:00 pm on Friday, ~2:30 pm on Saturday
4-Seed: ~1:30 pm on Friday, 12:00 pm on Saturday
5-Seed: ~1:30 pm on Thursday, ~1:30 pm on Friday, 12:00 pm on Saturday
6-Seed: ~8:00 pm on Thursday, 8:00 pm on Friday, ~2:30 pm on Saturday
7-Seed: 5:30 pm on Thursday, 5:30 pm on Friday, ~2:30 pm on Saturday
8-Seed: 11:00 am on Thursday, 11:00 am on Friday, 12:00 pm on Saturday
9-Seed: 11:00 am on Thursday, 11:00 am on Friday, 12:00 pm on Saturday
10-Seed: 5:30 pm on Thursday, 5:30 pm on Friday, ~2:30 pm on Saturday
That kind of hurt my head, so I hope I got all of those right, haha. Given that I think this team can beat anyone in the conference (or the country...) if our shooting is decent and the effort is there, I'd gladly accept those 6- or 7-seed game times!
2-Seed: 5:30 pm on Friday, ~2:30 pm on Saturday
3-Seed: ~8:00 pm on Friday, ~2:30 pm on Saturday
4-Seed: ~1:30 pm on Friday, 12:00 pm on Saturday
5-Seed: ~1:30 pm on Thursday, ~1:30 pm on Friday, 12:00 pm on Saturday
6-Seed: ~8:00 pm on Thursday, 8:00 pm on Friday, ~2:30 pm on Saturday
7-Seed: 5:30 pm on Thursday, 5:30 pm on Friday, ~2:30 pm on Saturday
8-Seed: 11:00 am on Thursday, 11:00 am on Friday, 12:00 pm on Saturday
9-Seed: 11:00 am on Thursday, 11:00 am on Friday, 12:00 pm on Saturday
10-Seed: 5:30 pm on Thursday, 5:30 pm on Friday, ~2:30 pm on Saturday
That kind of hurt my head, so I hope I got all of those right, haha. Given that I think this team can beat anyone in the conference (or the country...) if our shooting is decent and the effort is there, I'd gladly accept those 6- or 7-seed game times!
We bought for work through Stubhub, which said we would not get tickets until the 8th.
Northwestern will not beat both of them on the road. More likely to lose both.
FeelYourPaign
- So Cal
Definitely helps but we simply must win at least 2 of remaining 3 to get it done. It's more on us than them imo.
This is interesting. There is a way for us to be a 3 seed at 12-8 which requires only one upset to happen the rest of the year - Michigan winning at IU in the last game of the year. That is the only single game that pushes us into the top 4.
Now, this will all change after Saturday but still crazy to think that a) the outcome of a single game could have such an outsized impact on our season and b) despite what people (myself especially) thought, we don't need a lot of things to break our way to be top 4. We just need one thing to go our way, in addition to beating OSU and UM.
In that scenario the top 4 would be:
1. Purdue
2. Maryland
3. Illinois
4. Michigan
Now, this will all change after Saturday but still crazy to think that a) the outcome of a single game could have such an outsized impact on our season and b) despite what people (myself especially) thought, we don't need a lot of things to break our way to be top 4. We just need one thing to go our way, in addition to beating OSU and UM.
In that scenario the top 4 would be:
1. Purdue
2. Maryland
3. Illinois
4. Michigan
I think it depends what NW does in their other games. I am keeping it simple - just win and we'll see.
I think in one of those scenarios, you’d replace Maryland with Northwestern since they play each other coming up.
I think there is a good chance the Minnesota at MSU game won't be played. Minny already has a jammed schedule of make-up games. If so, then MSU drops out of the 12-8 tie-break group and Michigan and Illinois swap places based on UM's better record against the second place team. Funny how Michigan benefits from unplayed games even when it is not one of their own games that goes unplayed.
Would MSU get the win for a forfeit or would it just simply not be played? Sorry, probably already discussed somewhere.
Just play as well as we can. Get to Chicago and take our chances. On paper we should finish 12-8. No guarantees. Hopefully we get refs that will not ignore the moving screens. Also, that we get refs that will go to the monitor and check for flagrants when our guys get decapitated on the drives to the basket.
The winner of the Maryland vs Northwestern game will likely be at 13-7 and be the number 2 seed. If Michigan can beat Indiana (and the Hoosiers lose to Purdue) Indiana drops to 11-9. If Indiana and Illinois beat Michigan, Michigan falls to 11-9. However in this case, since Illinois lost twice to Indiana they fall out of the tiebreaker with the other teams at 12-8. So "21ChampaignSt" is correct, and if all goes as expected (????) and Illinois wins out, the only scenario (barring some big upsets) is for Michigan to beat Indiana in "Hoosierland" (not an easy task) !!!
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
These are the updated seeds from the simulator leaving all results unchanged except for different scenarios for Illinois:
Scenario 1: Beat only Michigan
1. Purdue
2. Maryland
3. Northwestern
4. Michigan State
5. Indiana
6. Iowa
7. Illinois
8. Michigan
9. Rutgers
10. Wisconsin
11. Penn State
12. Nebraska
13. Ohio State
14. Minnesota
Illini play (10) Wisconsin at 5:30 pm on Thursday. If we win, we play (2) Maryland at 5:30 pm on Friday.
Scenario 1: Beat Ohio State and Michigan, lose to Purdue
1. Purdue
2. Maryland
3. Northwestern
4. Indiana
5. Illinois
6. Michigan State
7. Iowa
8. Michigan
9. Rutgers
10. Wisconsin
11. Penn State
12. Nebraska
13. Ohio State
14. Minnesota
Illini play the winner of (12) Nebraska and (13) Ohio State at 1:30 pm on Thursday. If we win, we play (4) Indiana at 1:30 pm on Friday.
Scenario 3: Illini win Out
1. Purdue
2. Maryland
3. Illinois
4. Northwestern
5. Michigan State
6. Indiana
7. Iowa
8. Michigan
9. Rutgers
10. Wisconsin
11. Penn State
12. Nebraska
13. Ohio State
14. Minnesota
Illini play the winner of (6) Indiana and (11) PSU/(14) Minnesota at 8:00 pm on Friday.
Three games left, and there are SO many different scenarios, haha. Honestly, I would just like to avoid Indiana. I'd relish the opportunity to beat Iowa.
Scenario 1: Beat only Michigan
1. Purdue
2. Maryland
3. Northwestern
4. Michigan State
5. Indiana
6. Iowa
7. Illinois
8. Michigan
9. Rutgers
10. Wisconsin
11. Penn State
12. Nebraska
13. Ohio State
14. Minnesota
Illini play (10) Wisconsin at 5:30 pm on Thursday. If we win, we play (2) Maryland at 5:30 pm on Friday.
Scenario 1: Beat Ohio State and Michigan, lose to Purdue
1. Purdue
2. Maryland
3. Northwestern
4. Indiana
5. Illinois
6. Michigan State
7. Iowa
8. Michigan
9. Rutgers
10. Wisconsin
11. Penn State
12. Nebraska
13. Ohio State
14. Minnesota
Illini play the winner of (12) Nebraska and (13) Ohio State at 1:30 pm on Thursday. If we win, we play (4) Indiana at 1:30 pm on Friday.
Scenario 3: Illini win Out
1. Purdue
2. Maryland
3. Illinois
4. Northwestern
5. Michigan State
6. Indiana
7. Iowa
8. Michigan
9. Rutgers
10. Wisconsin
11. Penn State
12. Nebraska
13. Ohio State
14. Minnesota
Illini play the winner of (6) Indiana and (11) PSU/(14) Minnesota at 8:00 pm on Friday.
Three games left, and there are SO many different scenarios, haha. Honestly, I would just like to avoid Indiana. I'd relish the opportunity to beat Iowa.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
It's also worth noting that we have not really had a Big Ten Tournament at the United Center while we have (A) a decent team and (B) our program is in a good spot arguably since 2005.
In 2007, our program was still riding a lot of prestige, but that team wasn't very inspiring. In 2013, we had a decent team, but the program overall had been bad for years. I'm hoping there are a TON of Illini fans at the UC. Videos of the BTT games in 2005 in Chicago were ridiculous, it was minimum 75% orange for every one of our games.
In 2007, our program was still riding a lot of prestige, but that team wasn't very inspiring. In 2013, we had a decent team, but the program overall had been bad for years. I'm hoping there are a TON of Illini fans at the UC. Videos of the BTT games in 2005 in Chicago were ridiculous, it was minimum 75% orange for every one of our games.
I got a different result by changing 2 of the games to home team wins when it's a close game -and we're a 6 see and Northwestern is the 3 - I can live with that
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