Bowl/Playoff Projections - Illinois #16 in CFB Playoff Top 25
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InDaAZ
- Eugene, Oregon
But only until Jan 19, at which point we curb-stomp their over-rated clown-pants-wearing basketball team (the only sport they truly care about).Do you realize if we were to win out, win every game remaining in the seaso that we get to play, Indiana would STILL get to say they beat Illinois. Are we ready for that?
I didn't think it was too far off. I mean LSU and Penn St have some nice wins that we really lack. That's not our fault, but I can't fault them for putting us where we are. That Indiana loss is one of the worst losses for anyone in that top 25. If we win two more games then we move up. I keep thinking Michigan when I shouldn't be thinking past Michigan State. Just a few more days until kickoff. WOOHOO
True story: They won’t let me eat in their restaurants. They tell me even the water has gluten. So we pick sandwiches and we eat them in our hotel room.
But if we win the natty, don’t you think maybe we should buy them a participation award
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Thrilled with the #16 ranking. Given our program history and projections coming into the season, that alone is a small miracle.
BUT - How are we one of 13 teams to still be in contention to make the playoff, yet listed at #16 in the playoff rankings?
That means there are 3 two loss teams, who are mathematically eliminated from making the playoff, listed ahead of us in the *playoff* ranking system.
Make it make sense.
If we were ranked below Penn St in the AP poll, fine. A fair argument could be made.
Ranking Penn St at #15 and us at #16 in the *playoff* ranking system, even though Penn St has 2 losses and likely would not make the playoff, even if they won out, yet we likely would make the playoff if we won out, is just plain silly.
BUT - How are we one of 13 teams to still be in contention to make the playoff, yet listed at #16 in the playoff rankings?
That means there are 3 two loss teams, who are mathematically eliminated from making the playoff, listed ahead of us in the *playoff* ranking system.
Make it make sense.
If we were ranked below Penn St in the AP poll, fine. A fair argument could be made.
Ranking Penn St at #15 and us at #16 in the *playoff* ranking system, even though Penn St has 2 losses and likely would not make the playoff, even if they won out, yet we likely would make the playoff if we won out, is just plain silly.
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My take on this is think of a slider. On the left side of the slider it says Talent/Preseason Rank/Projection and on the right side it says Resume. The question is where would you place that bar at each point in the season? Obviously before the season starts, no team has any resume or games played so the slider is all the way to the left. If you move ahead say 4 weeks, there's only so much information to go on, nonconference schedules are so imbalanced, and while you need to take wins and losses into account it's difficult in many cases to truly know how good or bad a result against a given team actually is. So maybe you move the slider 25% of the way over. By 6 games, half the season is done, and resume starts coming more into effect. So where would you put the slider? 50%? 60%? 75%? And I think this is where opinion really starts varying between people. Because this is an opinion based decision, not a metric.
Here we are 8 games in, 75% of the season is completed. For me, resume should carry at least 90% of the weight at this point with that final 10% being talent/projection just to differentiate teams with similar records and strength of schedule. However I'm sure, you'll find many if not more people saying it should be 75% resume, 25% talent/projection, and some may even go as low as 50/50. And some may say screw SOS or other metrics, I'm going solely by eye test and gut feel. And others may go simply on how they feel the final standings will go at the end of the season. The problem is there are no rules to this and as such you have a committee of people with very different methods or metrics for ranking these teams and you have to somehow balance these methods to come up with one list. So you're going to see major major inconsistencies in rankings of any given team. And I think Tennessee being 1, Clemson being 4, and TCU being 7 illustrates that perfectly because nobody can tell me that makes even the most minute amount of rational sense with any single given system or metric.
In theory this will all work itself out by season end as everyone's sliders should be 100% on resume, however, sadly, that's not the case. It's why I actually preferred computer systems for rankings over humans back in the BCS days because while computers are as "biased" as their code, they're at least consistently biased, unlike humans who we've seen do some screwy screwy things.
Finally, I'll say Illinois as a team is one I'd find especially hard to rank, primarily because of our schedule. Technically, we haven't played any "quality" competition yet (I do think Minnesota might get there by end of season though) and our loss was a terrible loss, though extraordinarily controversial in nature. However that controversy is probably only known by members on the committee who have strong B10 knowledge. So how do you rank this team right now as there's no opponent they faced for basis of Top 25 comparison. As such, at this point, you'd basically rank Illinois as you would from a 7-1 non-Power 5 conference and as such a ranking in the 15-25 range shouldn't be too shocking. In fact our closest comparable is probably a team like Tulane who also at 7-1 have a more quality win than us and are ranked #20. All that said, this will rectify itself in the coming weeks for us as we will be greatly greatly tested. If we were to beat MSU, Purdue, and win @Michigan, you won't have to worry about where we are compared to PSU. We'll be Top 10. We win out, we should finish Top 6 at absolutely worst and likely Top 4.
TLDR: Don't worry about the rankings this time of year- while fun, they're purpose nonsensical, because there's no standard method or metric for committee members to follow regarding resume, eye test, talent, margin of victory, or preseason prediction. Illinois will face very high quality competition soon and we'll be ranked by our performance in those games accordingly.
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Twelve teams, based primarily on the CFP rankings, get to play in the "New Year's Day Six" Bowls (12 teams). I believe Tulane and UNC would also get invites based upon bowl affiliations and/or CFP rules. Using Tuesday's rankings, one might expect to see this --- the Top 10 ranked teams, plus UNC and Tulane:
Peach
Tennessee (1) vs Clemson (4)
Fiesta
Ohio St (2) vs Georgia (3)
Rose
Michigan vs Oregon
Cotton
USC vs TCU
Sugar
Alabama vs Tulane (non Power 5 invitee)
Orange
North Carolina (ACC affiliation) vs LSU
As the #4 team in the Big 10, we'd likely be in line for either a Citrus or ReliaQuest Bowl invitation.....both being played on January 2nd this year. With the Illini new to the CFP discussion, I may have overlooked a thing or two. Lots will change over the next month!!
Peach
Tennessee (1) vs Clemson (4)
Fiesta
Ohio St (2) vs Georgia (3)
Rose
Michigan vs Oregon
Cotton
USC vs TCU
Sugar
Alabama vs Tulane (non Power 5 invitee)
Orange
North Carolina (ACC affiliation) vs LSU
As the #4 team in the Big 10, we'd likely be in line for either a Citrus or ReliaQuest Bowl invitation.....both being played on January 2nd this year. With the Illini new to the CFP discussion, I may have overlooked a thing or two. Lots will change over the next month!!
IlliniKat91
- Chicago, IL
People feeling disrespected after we've been a doormat for the past 11+ years is pretty comical. That's the way it works folks. Past history 100% plays a part in these rankings.
99% of the country is looking at our schedule and saying "Good season for Illinois, solid team, but they will get smoked in Ann Arbor". And, TBH, that's probably going to happen. The gulf between the elite teams and everyone else is pretty big right now. Just the way it is.
But saying all that, and being realistic about where our program is in the CFP world, takes nothing away from how amazing and magical and important this season is.
99% of the country is looking at our schedule and saying "Good season for Illinois, solid team, but they will get smoked in Ann Arbor". And, TBH, that's probably going to happen. The gulf between the elite teams and everyone else is pretty big right now. Just the way it is.
But saying all that, and being realistic about where our program is in the CFP world, takes nothing away from how amazing and magical and important this season is.
When we beat Michigan I have a screen shot of your post I will proudly display on Loyalty the minute we win.
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
You’re missing a scenario …
I hope I see it up there! I'm tired of seeing the same traditional powers rolling through their schedule year after year. I want to see us shock the world!
It’s really very simple, finish 14-1 we’re National Champs! The trick is to get to that 15th game.
Wait, where's Notre Dame? You know that somehow the selection committee is going to sneak ND into the top 4. /s
Actually I just said that so everyone remembers Illinois is ranked higher, much higher, than ND. ND isn't even in the top 25. One of my football pet peeves for the last twenty years or so is that ND is almost always overrated/over-ranked. Not that most of the time they don't deserve to be ranked, just that they are always over-ranked. And I tell this to every poor sap who has the misfortune to be within earshot and can't get away from me fast enough before I go off on this rant.
Actually I just said that so everyone remembers Illinois is ranked higher, much higher, than ND. ND isn't even in the top 25. One of my football pet peeves for the last twenty years or so is that ND is almost always overrated/over-ranked. Not that most of the time they don't deserve to be ranked, just that they are always over-ranked. And I tell this to every poor sap who has the misfortune to be within earshot and can't get away from me fast enough before I go off on this rant.
Just being in the CFP rankings is a huge reputation builder - doesn't matter where the committee has us - it's more a reflection of their perception of us at this point than any real decision they need to make
The 2 loss teams ahead of us have zero chance of making the playoffs - we still do if we win out. That is the beauty of playing in the Big Ten, we can play our way in - TCU and Clemson don't have that luxury, they might finish undefeated and not make it
The 2 loss teams ahead of us have zero chance of making the playoffs - we still do if we win out. That is the beauty of playing in the Big Ten, we can play our way in - TCU and Clemson don't have that luxury, they might finish undefeated and not make it
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
It’s not that I feel disrespected.
Looking at a subjective ranking system like the AP poll, I’m just happy we’re a part of it. I don’t care if we’re 14, 15, 16, 20, 25, having that little number next to our name during our games lights me up.
But the playoff rankings are marketed as an *objective ranking system* designed to rank the top 25 teams from most likely to least likely to make the playoff.
If Penn St wins out, they likely do not make the playoff.
If we win out, we likely do make the playoff.
So our odds of making the playoffs are higher.
Mathematically, Penn St has been eliminated, yet we are mathematically still in contention. Therefore, objectively, regardless of program history, strength of schedule, etc, we should be higher than Penn St in the playoff rankings.
Well said and I'm with you 99%, except for the above. I do not believe there is any member of that committee, unless one of them is from Illinois, that has any thought about the details of a game two months ago in their mind. "Illinois has a crappy loss, and...well...they're Illinois" is as far I think any of their human-based analysis goes.
You're mostly right but maybe not entirely?
Frequently Asked Questions about the CFP Selection Committee
Frequently Asked Questions about the CFP Selection Committee
collegefootballplayoff.com
An undefeated Power 5 team has never missed the playoff. If TCU and/or Clemson go undefeated, they will almost certainly make the playoff.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Ah, got it, makes sense.You're mostly right but maybe not entirely?
Frequently Asked Questions about the CFP Selection Committee
Frequently Asked Questions about the CFP Selection Committee
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For selfish reasons I want to avoid the RelilaQuest. My dad and I went to Tampa for the USF game in 2017 and other than a really good seafood place there wasn't much to write home about (I'm assuming any other location we get would also have good seafood). We also went to the Sugar Bowl in 02 and the Rose Bowl in 08 but can't say I'd be disappointed with going back to NOLA or Pasadena 
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.For selfish reasons I want to avoid the RelilaQuest. My dad and I went to Tampa for the USF game in 2017 and other than a really good seafood place there wasn't much to write home about (I'm assuming any other location we get would also have good seafood). We also went to the Sugar Bowl in 02 and the Rose Bowl in 08 but can't say I'd be disappointed with going back to NOLA or Pasadena
Did you try Ybor City? I also remember going to Odyssey 2001 because how do you pass up a gentleman's club with a spaceship on the roof.
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