Lot of football left, but I would agree on those two, especially given Clemson is already ranked 4th, and TCU 7th. One of Georgia/Tennessee would have to drop down, and then one among the winner/LSU/AL will have to lose in the conf champ game. Seems to me that sets up well for any undefeated P5.
I think the tendency is for voters to split the difference when there's an upset. I.e. they think the lower ranked team gains about half the difference, and the higher ranked team loses half the difference in their eyes. If Illinois were to do it twice over both Michigan and tOSU, that would be huge, but maybe not enough to go from 16th to top-4? I don't know how that shakes out, but conference champ with those two wins would be hard to ignore.
I don't know how much pull the SEC has in the committee if things are tight, but I can already hear the angry mobs if they don't get at least 2 teams in. They really need a 12 team format. Maybe getting only 1 SEC team in would push that along.