Bowl Projections

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#126      
To play the what if game - what if we would have won those tight games with Purdue, Maryland, and Rutgers? We would have been 7 and 2 in the league and a blown fourth quarter lead by Nebraska against Iowa away from a big ten championship game appearance. You obviously can’t do that as we could have easily lost the PSU game or even the Nebraska or Minnesota games, but it is fun to think about. Good progress this year and we have the right man in charge. We did benefit from an easy crossover schedule that did not include osu, msu, or mich.

Nebraska and PSU are games I feel like could have gone the other way, but I also feel like Minnesota could have also been a lot more lopsided than it ended up being.
 
#127      
Looking at ESPN's play-by-play win probability for each game, Maryland is really the only big "what if." They had Illinois with a 95% chance to win with 4:50 to go in the fourth. That loss was a complete gut punch.

It shows the Penn State game as basically a 50/50 game the entire time, but it was a fluke that it was ever close. Illinois destroyed them everywhere except for the scoreboard.
 
#128      
Looking at ESPN's play-by-play win probability for each game, Maryland is really the only big "what if." They had Illinois with a 95% chance to win with 4:50 to go in the fourth. That loss was a complete gut punch.

It shows the Penn State game as basically a 50/50 game the entire time, but it was a fluke that it was ever close. Illinois destroyed them everywhere except for the scoreboard.
We had a TD questionably called back. So we just gave PSU 9 OT's to think they could win.
 
#130      

Illinir1

Morris, IL
Why don't we hear much about the injustice of an 8 game SEC conference opponent schedule, with 4 non-conference games? An amazing 13 out of 14 SEC teams are bowl eligible, with Vanderbilt the only non qualifier. For sure a 2 - 6 conference record Florida is taking a bowl spot that a 4 -5 conference record Illinois is more deserving of. You could also make a case that 3 - 5 conference record teams Missouri, South Carolina, Auburn, and LSU are only bowl eligible because of 4 non-conference win opportunities. #GiveIllinoisaBowl.

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#131      
Why don't we hear much about the injustice of an 8 game SEC conference opponent schedule, with 4 non-conference games? An amazing 13 out of 14 SEC teams are bowl eligible, with Vanderbilt the only non qualifier. For sure a 2 - 6 conference record Florida is taking a bowl spot that a 4 -5 conference record Illinois is more deserving of. You could also make a case that 3 - 5 conference record teams Missouri, South Carolina, Auburn, and LSU are only bowl eligible because of 4 non-conference win opportunities. #GiveIllinoisaBowl.

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This is a really good point but NCAA football panders to the SEC, so you won't hear about bit and if anyone with power speaks up they will be embroiled in some sort of controversy soon after.
 
#132      
Why don't we hear much about the injustice of an 8 game SEC conference opponent schedule, with 4 non-conference games? An amazing 13 out of 14 SEC teams are bowl eligible, with Vanderbilt the only non qualifier. For sure a 2 - 6 conference record Florida is taking a bowl spot that a 4 -5 conference record Illinois is more deserving of. You could also make a case that 3 - 5 conference record teams Missouri, South Carolina, Auburn, and LSU are only bowl eligible because of 4 non-conference win opportunities. #GiveIllinoisaBowl.

View attachment 13335
Big ten going to 9 conference games were a mistake. I wish we could go back to playing a fcs, 2 G5s and a middling P5 in nonconference games. The new scheduling rules screwed over teams like us that just want to be bowl eligible.
 
#133      
Big ten going to 9 conference games were a mistake. I wish we could go back to playing a fcs, 2 G5s and a middling P5 in nonconference games. The new scheduling rules screwed over teams like us that just want to be bowl eligible.
Illinois is on the garbage side of the Big Ten. If they can't win 6 games, they don't deserve to be in a bowl game. This year is not a failure because it's year 1 but going forward.
 
#134      

Epsilon

M tipping over
Pdx
Just curious. Since Bama and Georgia have to play on 12/4, do you think there’s any chance the loser gets kicked out of CFP contention? Would that require a lopsided loss or just adding any loss, assuming Notre Dame and/or Ok St win? I doubt Georgia would get kicked out but it seems Bama could. Thoughts?
 
#135      

Illinir1

Morris, IL
Illinois is on the garbage side of the Big Ten. If they can't win 6 games, they don't deserve to be in a bowl game. This year is not a failure because it's year 1 but going forward.
Win 6 games and you're in a bowl is straightforward enough.

But you have to acknowledge the advantage that the SEC has playing 4 non-conference games. Here's Florida's non-conference opponents with today's Sagarin ratings for each team: Florida Atlantic (115), South Florida (129), Samford (167), Florida State (58). Here's Illinois non-conference opponents and Sagarin ratings: UTSA (59), Virginia (57), Charlotte (147). If Illinois had a fourth non-conference game you can bet it would be against a team with a Sagarin rating of over 100 and we'd be bowling. Thirteen out of fourteen SEC teams bowl eligible. Really???? I'm not capable of figuring out how many of those would not have 6 wins if they played 9 conference games, but I'd guess, at minimum, three of the five 6-6 SEC teams (four of which were 3-5 in conference and Florida at 2-6) would not be bowling. SEC teams are taking other teams bowl spots because of eight conference games scheduling. And two of those 6-6 SEC teams (Florida, LSU) had such great seasons that they fired their head coaches (I know, we fired Zook with a 6-6 record, but an 0-6 finish gets you that). #GiveIllinoisaBowl
 
#136      
Win 6 games and you're in a bowl is straightforward enough.

But you have to acknowledge the advantage that the SEC has playing 4 non-conference games. Here's Florida's non-conference opponents with today's Sagarin ratings for each team: Florida Atlantic (115), South Florida (129), Samford (167), Florida State (58). Here's Illinois non-conference opponents and Sagarin ratings: UTSA (59), Virginia (57), Charlotte (147). If Illinois had a fourth non-conference game you can bet it would be against a team with a Sagarin rating of over 100 and we'd be bowling. Thirteen out of fourteen SEC teams bowl eligible. Really???? I'm not capable of figuring out how many of those would not have 6 wins if they played 9 conference games, but I'd guess, at minimum, three of the five 6-6 SEC teams (four of which were 3-5 in conference and Florida at 2-6) would not be bowling. SEC teams are taking other teams bowl spots because of eight conference games scheduling. And two of those 6-6 SEC teams (Florida, LSU) had such great seasons that they fired their head coaches (I know, we fired Zook with a 6-6 record, but an 0-6 finish gets you that). #GiveIllinoisaBowl
I expect I'm in the minority, but I would rather watch us schedule 12 good games than schedule 8 good games and 4 games against bad teams, even if scheduling bad teams increases the chance of getting a bowl bid.
The problem of inferior SEC teams taking bowl bids from teams who play more hard games should solved some other way (like requiring a .500 conference winning percentage, which I expect most of you would strenuously oppose.)
 
#137      
Last year SEC teams played only 10 games, all against other SEC teams due to COVID. No out of conference cupcake games. 8 teams went to bowls. Their record was 7-2. Alabama played twice, hence the extra game. SEC vs. Big 10 in bowls, SEC won 2, lost 1.

Link for 2020 SEC bowl results https://www.secsports.com/article/30556752/2020-21-sec-bowl-schedule


Disclaimer: I am an Alabama alumnus and fan. I do follow Illinois football because I like Bret Bielema.
 
#138      
Just curious. Since Bama and Georgia have to play on 12/4, do you think there’s any chance the loser gets kicked out of CFP contention? Would that require a lopsided loss or just adding any loss, assuming Notre Dame and/or Ok St win? I doubt Georgia would get kicked out but it seems Bama could. Thoughts?
You never know, but unless it's a real nail biter and they should have won, I don't see a two loss Alabama ahead of one loss OK State, or one loss ND. Alabama has just had too many close wins against so-so teams. Now if Cincinnati loses, that will make ND's loss look worse, and maybe they give Alabama #3 to avoid the rematch?
 
#139      

Epsilon

M tipping over
Pdx
You never know, but unless it's a real nail biter and they should have won, I don't see a two loss Alabama ahead of one loss OK State, or one loss ND. Alabama has just had too many close wins against so-so teams. Now if Cincinnati loses, that will make ND's loss look worse, and maybe they give Alabama #3 to avoid the rematch?
Cincy’s last game is at least to a ranked Houston team, so while I think that pushes them out of CFP contention, I’m not sure it pushes ND out. I am guessing (fwliw) that if Ga and Houston win, Bama and Cincy are out, replaced with ND and Ok St. It could be a crazy last week!
 
#140      
You never know, but unless it's a real nail biter and they should have won, I don't see a two loss Alabama ahead of one loss OK State, or one loss ND. Alabama has just had too many close wins against so-so teams. Now if Cincinnati loses, that will make ND's loss look worse, and maybe they give Alabama #3 to avoid the rematch?
I believe if AL loses, they're out.
 
#141      
I expect I'm in the minority, but I would rather watch us schedule 12 good games than schedule 8 good games and 4 games against bad teams, even if scheduling bad teams increases the chance of getting a bowl bid.
The problem of inferior SEC teams taking bowl bids from teams who play more hard games should solved some other way (like requiring a .500 conference winning percentage, which I expect most of you would strenuously oppose.)
In Alabama there is also dissatisfaction with the 3 or so games with smaller colleges that Alabama plays every year. The fan base constantly expresses their dislike of such games. Why does Alabama play them? In one word - money. It's not about padding the schedule with easy wins. The small schools come to Tuscaloosa to play and Alabama does not go to their campus. In two years with a home and home agreement Alabama would get one game on campus. Playing small cupcake schools Alabama gets two games in two years. There is a large amount of money spent on ticket sales, restaurants, bars, stores, hotels, parking fees, suvenir sales, concessions, etc. The university and the business community put great pressure on the athletic department to maximize the number of home games. Nick Saban usually gets whatever he wants from the university, but not on this topic.

 
#143      
Last year SEC teams played only 10 games, all against other SEC teams due to COVID. No out of conference cupcake games. 8 teams went to bowls. Their record was 7-2. Alabama played twice, hence the extra game. SEC vs. Big 10 in bowls, SEC won 2, lost 1.

Link for 2020 SEC bowl results https://www.secsports.com/article/30556752/2020-21-sec-bowl-schedule


Disclaimer: I am an Alabama alumnus and fan. I do follow Illinois football because I like Bret Bielema.
So, instead of 13 only eight were bowl eligible, which is what happens when the cupcake counts drops. Also, regarding bowl record, the SEC is the only P5 conference to assign bowl slots rather than allow the bowl to extend invitations, correct? Do you think they're picking match-ups where they won't be favored?

The SEC is playing a different game as everyone else. They're in business with the media, (literally), and are centrally designing schedules and bowls to maximize revenue. And now with the NIL, they don't even have to cheat to buy the recruits they want. Happy times.
 
#144      
So, instead of 13 only eight were bowl eligible, which is what happens when the cupcake counts drops. Also, regarding bowl record, the SEC is the only P5 conference to assign bowl slots rather than allow the bowl to extend invitations, correct? Do you think they're picking match-ups where they won't be favored?

The SEC is playing a different game as everyone else. They're in business with the media, (literally), and are centrally designing schedules and bowls to maximize revenue. And now with the NIL, they don't even have to cheat to buy the recruits they want. Happy times.
Who goes where is in large part determined years in advance by contracts. I believe the rankings, the bowls themselves (who prefer fan bases that "travel well"), the TV networks (who want a good matchup that will draw viewers) control who plays who. Bowls want teams that are close enough to draw a good crowd, but not too close where the game would be a day trip with no hotel stayover. The SEC, Big 10, ACC, and Big 12 also have a say. I would guess the TV networks have the most influence because that's where most of the money is. I don't believe a team can say "We want to play X because we can win that one." Below, what the SEC and other conferences have in pre-arranged contracts. ktal, you are correct, it is to maximize revenue.

2021-22 SEC bowl tie-ins, affiliations​

College Football Playoff, if applicable

1. Sugar Bowl vs. Big 12

Any at-large New Year's Six berths can come after the Sugar Bowl slot is filled.

2. Citrus Bowl vs. Big Ten

The next six bowls have no selection order; teams are selected based on proximity, matchups and other factors.

  • Outback Bowl vs. Big Ten
  • Gator Bowl vs. ACC
  • Duke's Mayo Bowl vs. ACC
  • Music City Bowl vs. Big Ten
  • Liberty Bowl vs. Big 12
  • Texas Bowl vs. Big 12
The next tier of games will be picked after the tier above. They have no selection order; teams are selected based on proximity, matchups and other factors.

  • Birmingham Bowl vs. AAC
  • Gasparilla Bowl vs. ACC, AAC or PAC-12
 
#147      
1. Sugar Bowl vs. Big 12
2. Citrus Bowl vs. Big Ten

  • Outback Bowl vs. Big Ten
  • Gator Bowl vs. ACC
  • Duke's Mayo Bowl vs. ACC
  • Music City Bowl vs. Big Ten
  • Liberty Bowl vs. Big 12
  • Texas Bowl vs. Big 12
  • Birmingham Bowl vs. AAC
  • Gasparilla Bowl vs. ACC, AAC or PAC-12
I think you're confirming the difference, right? The top two (Sugar/Citrus) are contractual, and all the rest can be assigned by SEC HQ. For all the other P5 the bowl selection doesn't flow through conference HQ because all the slots are contractual. I'm sure there's discussion, but it's the bowls th emselves who decide who to invite, whereas the SEC decides who to send. So the question becomes, does the SEC know which B1G teams are being invited before choosing who to send to the Outback and Music City bowls? I know I'd want to.
 
#150      
Seems like that would have to help our slim/none chances except there are enough 6 win teams to fill all the spots unless some turn down their bid. I know it’s happened before, but has to be fairly rare right? I guess by Sunday night we will know.
The whole point of this one time bowl is to let all of the 6 win teams from non-P5 schools play in a bowl, so I imagine if anyone refused a bowl they might not go ahead with this game. This game isn't a definite yet.

I think this highlights something we often take for granted. The non-P5 schools aren't guaranteed a bowl game with six wins and might not even make one with more than six wins some years.
 
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