Bowl Projections

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#77      
Is that new? I seem to recall a 5-7 Cal team (or maybe it was UCLA…?) beating us in a bowl game.

edit: @champaignchris beat me to it...

Blurring two memories it seems (but I'm still impressed because I had to use Google)

Illinois beat a 6-7 UCLA team in 2011 (maybe they were eligible b/c they were 6-6 in regular season and lost in their conf championship game)

A 7-5 Cal team beat Illinois in 2019
 
#78      

Epsilon

M tipping over
Pdx
edit: @champaignchris beat me to it...

Blurring two memories it seems (but I'm still impressed because I had to use Google)

Illinois beat a 6-7 UCLA team in 2011 (maybe they were eligible b/c they were 6-6 in regular season and lost in their conf championship game)

A 7-5 Cal team beat Illinois in 2019
I think you’re right. I kinda vaguely follow football. Basketball is a whole other thing…
 
#79      
After 11:00 games update:

Game Time (CST):Needs to Win:Needs to Lose:Invites Remaining: 8
Tue 6:00 PMBuffalo - 3Ball State - 20
7​
Thu 2:30 PMFresno State - 40San Jose State - 9
7​
Fri 11:00 AMKansas State - 17Texas - 22
6​
Fri 2:30 PM ESPN+Coastal Carolina - 27South Alabama - 21
6​
Fri 3:30 PM FS1Iowa State - 48TCU - 14
6​
Sat 11:00 AM ESPN Florida - 24Florida State - 21
6​
Sat 11:00 AM BTNRutgers - 16 Maryland - 40
5​
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN+UTSANorth Texas
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN+Georgia StateTroy
Sat 2:45 PM ACCNVirginiaVirginia Tech
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN2SMUTulsa
Sat 6:00 PM ESPNTexas A&MLSU
Sat 6:00 PM 🤷Middle TennesseeFlorida Atlantic
Sat 6:00 PM FS1KansasWest Virginia
Sat 6:30 PM ACCNPittSyracuse

If both Cal and USC win on Saturday, then one of them is guaranteed a bowl invite. If they both lose, then neither will receive one. If only one wins, then we will be rooting against that team next week. For this week, let's just root against both.

Game Time (CST):Needs to Win:Needs to Lose:
Sat 9:30 PM ESPNUCLACal
Sat 9:30 PM FS1BYUUSC
 
#82      
After 1:00 games update:

There are six games remaining, and we need to go 4-2 for a guarantee, 3-3 with some help, or 2-4 with a miracle.

Game Time (CST):Needs to Win:Needs to Lose:Invites Remaining: 8
Tue 6:00 PMBuffalo - 3Ball State - 20
7​
Thu 2:30 PMFresno State - 40San Jose State - 9
7​
Fri 11:00 AMKansas State - 17Texas - 22
6​
Fri 2:30 PM ESPN+Coastal Carolina - 27South Alabama - 21
6​
Fri 3:30 PM FS1Iowa State - 48TCU - 14
6​
Sat 11:00 AM ESPNFlorida - 24Florida State - 21
6​
Sat 11:00 AM BTNRutgers - 16 Maryland - 40
5​
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN+UTSA - 23 North Texas - 45
4​
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN+Georgia State - 37Troy - 10
4​
Sat 2:45 PM ACCNVirginiaVirginia Tech
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN2SMUTulsa
Sat 6:00 PM ESPNTexas A&MLSU
Sat 6:00 PM 🤷Middle TennesseeFlorida Atlantic
Sat 6:00 PM FS1KansasWest Virginia
Sat 6:30 PM ACCNPittSyracuse

If both Cal and USC win on Saturday, then one of them is guaranteed a bowl invite. If they both lose, then neither will receive one. If only one wins, then we will be rooting against that team next week. For this week, let's just root against both.

Game Time (CST):Needs to Win:Needs to Lose:
Sat 9:30 PM ESPNUCLACal
Sat 9:30 PM FS1BYUUSC
 
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#84      
Curious -- Is your analysis pinpoint accurate?

Is there anything else we need to consider other than the fact that programs ahead of us can choose to opt out - or turn-down their invitations?
 
#85      
Curious -- Is your analysis pinpoint accurate?

Is there anything else we need to consider other than the fact that programs ahead of us can choose to opt out - or turn-down their invitations?

Well, assuming the APR list that we’ve been using is correct, then it should be pinpoint accurate. That is, there really are only four bowl invitations right now assuming that everyone that is eligible accepts theirs. There are no teams NOT listed in this chart that can sneak ahead of Illinois, and the outcomes listed in the chart are the only outcomes that affect Illinois’ chances (positively or negatively). So, assuming no weirdness, if there are still two invites remaining after the 6:00 games, Illinois would be guaranteed an invite.

If there is only one invite, we still need to watch the Cal and USC games tonight and next week.

If there are NO invites, then we hope for weirdness.
 
#86      
What about Hawaii? They're 6-7 (13 games) after today and I don't see them on the list...
 
#87      
The APR list is indeed being updated/issued next week, per one of Dan's posts earlier today. I therefore assume you're currently using the 2019 APR list (best information available --- so the APR scores could move a bit for the teams in-play.
 
#88      
What about Hawaii? They're 6-7 (13 games) after today and I don't see them on the list...
In 13 game seasons, a team must win 7 games. A team that wins 6 is subject to the APR list unless it’s a championship game that causes the 7th loss. Hawaii is behind us in APR. so we would get an invite before they would.


The APR list is indeed being updated/issued next week, per one of Dan's posts earlier today. I therefore assume you're currently using the 2019 APR list (best information available --- so the APR scores could move a bit for the teams in-play.
You are correct, but from my understanding, this information is already available, and is what has been used by other bowl sites. I think it has something to do with Covid, and that the APR list has not been updated for this year. Dan’s tweet earlier does have me confused though. So you could be correct.

Long story short, we still want as many bowl invites left by the time tonight is done.
 
#91      
After 3:00 games update:

Illinois did their part today, but Virginia and SMU didn’t do us any favors (both lost games they were winning…). As of now, there are four games remaining, and we need to go 4-0 for a “guarantee”, 3-1 with some help, or 2-2 with some miracles going our way.

A couple updates regarding the “exactness” of this.

First, I thought Hawaii at 6-7 was subject to APR rules, which would benefit us. However, they just need to apply for a waiver, on which the NCAA would then determine their bowl eligibility. That’s a BIG wildcard…

Second, the NCAA will be releasing an updated APR list this week. I don’t think much will change based on the history of the teams in the 5-7 bowl hunt, but it may affect some things. 🤷‍♂️

Game Time (CST):Needs to Win:Needs to Lose:Invites Remaining: 8
Tue 6:00 PMBuffalo - 3Ball State - 20
7​
Thu 2:30 PMFresno State - 40San Jose State - 9
7​
Fri 11:00 AMKansas State - 17Texas - 22
6​
Fri 2:30 PM ESPN+Coastal Carolina - 27South Alabama - 21
6​
Fri 3:30 PM FS1Iowa State - 48TCU - 14
6​
Sat 11:00 AM ESPNFlorida - 24Florida State - 21
6​
Sat 11:00 AM BTNRutgers - 16 Maryland - 40
5​
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN+UTSA - 23 North Texas - 45
4​
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN+Georgia State - 37Troy - 10
4​
Sat 2:45 PM ACCNVirginia - 24 Virginia Tech - 29
3​
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN2SMU - 31 Tulsa - 34
2​
Sat 6:00 PM ESPNTexas A&MLSU
Sat 6:00 PM 🤷Middle TennesseeFlorida Atlantic
Sat 6:00 PM FS1KansasWest Virginia
Sat 6:30 PM ACCNPittSyracuse

If both Cal and USC win on Saturday, then one of them is guaranteed a bowl invite. If they both lose, then neither will receive one. If only one wins, then we will be rooting against that team next week. For this week, let's just root against both.

Game Time (CST):Needs to Win:Needs to Lose:
Sat 9:30 PM ESPNUCLACal
Sat 9:30 PM FS1BYUUSC
 
#92      
Isn’t the APR based in some part on the amount of players we have and what year they are in school? Maybe since we had a lot of seniors last year compared to other schools, that’ll give us a boost.
 
#93      
I just think we're... 6th??? Which means 6, 5 win teams need to not clinch or want a bowl bid
 
#95      
Isn’t the APR based in some part on the amount of players we have and what year they are in school? Maybe since we had a lot of seniors last year compared to other schools, that’ll give us a boost.

To be honest, I’m not sure how it’s calculated. I know it has something to do with graduation rates. The number of seniors graduating might help as it could drive up the graduation rates, but I’m not really sure. The scores tend to be close to each other, so the fact that there could be some shake up is a real possibility. For example, if I’m not mistaken, the list were currently using has Rutgers at 979 and Illinois at 970. But, I’m not sure how much Hass to change to make up nine points though.
 
#97      

Epsilon

M tipping over
Pdx
So if it comes down to the PAC12, do we need both USC and UCLA to lose, or just one?
 
#98      
So if it comes down to the PAC12, do we need both USC and UCLA to lose, or just one?

Only one of them can get six wins because they are both 4-6 right now and play each other next week. But we need NEITHER to get 6 wins. Best case for us is them both losing tonight. Worst case is them both winning (thus guaranteeing one of them getting 6 wins).

If one wins and one loses tonight, we root hard next week for the team that lost this week.
 
#99      

886Illini

Far away
Only one of them can get six wins because they are both 4-6 right now and play each other next week. But we need NEITHER to get 6 wins. Best case for us is them both losing tonight. Worst case is them both winning (thus guaranteeing one of them getting 6 wins).

If one wins and one loses tonight, we root hard next week for the team that lost this week.
Data is a bit off...
UCLA is 7-4 heading into today's game against Cal. And UCLA played USC last week, UCLA won 62-33.
 
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#100      
UCLA is 7-4 heading into today's game against Cal.

You are correct. This is in regards to Cal and USC (I think the other poster typed UCLA and meant Cal). Cal and USC are both 4-6. They play against each other next week. We would like them to both be 4-7 heading into that matchup, and absolutely do not want them both to be 5-6.

It didn’t help that I read it as “Cal” also. 🙂
 
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