Bowl Projections

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#128      
KrushCow31
A 12-1 Illinois absolutely would get in over a 12-1 Clemson. Clemson plays basically nobody this year but Wake and Syracuse, especially with ND being so bad. Fun hypothetical though haha.
 
#129      
Jimbo
turnaround3 said:
Upon review, I'm going to partially agree.

12-1 Illinois with two wins over Michigan (who can play in B1G title even with home L to us), I'm not sure. I think OSU brand maybe bails them out, the committee has issued similar benefit of the doubt in years prior.

12-1 Illinois with wins at Ann Arbor and over OSU in Indy yes, I have to completely agree with you.

As we both alluded to, none of this is going to happen but wild that we get to even discuss these hypotheticals knocking on the doorstep of November.
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I think it does happen. There. I said it.
 
#130      
IllinoisssssssVarsity
KrushCow31 said:
A 12-1 Illinois absolutely would get in over a 12-1 Clemson. Clemson plays basically nobody this year but Wake and Syracuse, especially with ND being so bad. Fun hypothetical though haha.
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I agree the ACC is down, mostly because I’m not sold on Syracuse and WF (just my personal opinion). However, we play in the worst P5 division in football. There is an argument that we play basically nobody as well, especially in a year where the only really good team we’re guaranteed to play is Michigan. Are our nobodies better or worse than Clemson’s nobodies? Our somebodies are definitely better, but that’s because Clemson is THE somebody in the ACC.
 
#131      
mhuml32
ILLINISON1 said:
www.bestofarkansassports.com

A Bowl Matchup that Would Melt the Internet in Arkansas + Updates on Other Former Hog Coaches

Here's a path to a potential bowl matchup that Arkansas and a Big Ten fan base would love. Plus, Chad Morris works his black magic.
www.bestofarkansassports.com www.bestofarkansassports.com
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Would love this matchup because of the drama and storylines. That many more eyeballs would be tuned in to see the matchup. Jefferson and their running game would be vastly different than anything in the B1G but it would be a great test.
 
#132      
turnaround3
ChiefGritty said:
Not if we beat Michigan at the Big House and Ohio State in Indy.

No team in the country would have a pair of better wins than that.
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Not to nitpick but Georgia still has the opportunity to have wins over both Tennessee & Alabama. Tennessee still has a chance to have wins over both Georgia & Alabama. Right or wrong, we all know how the committee would perceive either of those pairs versus Ohio State & Michigan.

As to the matter of whether or not there's any way a 12-1 Illinois team with Michigan & OSU wins can get denied from CFP, someone already kind of alluded to it but it's pretty simple, unfortunately:

Any undefeated P5 conference champ gets in without any debate:

ACC - Clemson (technically also Syracuse)
B12 - TCU
PAC - UCLA
SEC - Any of Georgia, Tenn, theoretically Ole Miss

That's not in any sense likely to happen but that's how a 12-1 Illini team misses. And if it were: Undefeated ACC champ + Undefeated B12 champ, + Undefeated PAC champ, and 1 loss SEC champ, regrettably that 1 loss SEC team whose loss is not to Indiana is getting in over us as well. Just is what it is.

To me, dreaming the big dream remains going to Pasadena on the back of OSU or UM going to CFP. Even that requires us to win in Ann Arbor though, unless you think the committee would consider taking both OSU+UM if they were to meet undefeated ala '06 and play an '06-esque game. I personally don't see it, barring *several* unexpected SEC losses between now & then among Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee.
 
#133      
ChiefGritty
turnaround3 said:
Not to nitpick but Georgia still has the opportunity to have wins over both Tennessee & Alabama. Tennessee still has a chance to have wins over both Georgia & Alabama. Right or wrong, we all know how the committee would perceive either of those pairs versus Ohio State & Michigan.
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And deservedly so, but by definition that could only be one team having a pair of those wins.

Anyway, you can see 11-1 Tennessee having beaten Bama, 12-1 Georgia having beaten Tennessee, and 12-1 Alabama having beaten Georgia coming a mile away at this point can't you? People will be very, very mad if 3 SEC teams get in. I will be mad. Depending on how other things shake out it may be tough to justify another outcome though.

turnaround3 said:
That's not in any sense likely to happen but that's how a 12-1 Illini team misses. And if it were: Undefeated ACC champ + Undefeated B12 champ, + Undefeated PAC champ, and 1 loss SEC champ, regrettably that 1 loss SEC team whose loss is not to Indiana is getting in over us as well. Just is what it is.
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True. But note that such a confluence of conference champions with so few losses has basically never happened and is much, much harder now than it once was.

The TCU and Baylor thing from 2014 can't happen now because those two would now play in a Big XII championship game.

The year 12-1 Ohio State got left out involved a 12-0 Notre Dame team, not an issue this year, nor is there an undefeated mid-major. It would be a historically strong year for this 12-1 Illinois hypothetical to be left out of the playoff, and if anything we're tracking toward the opposite of a historically strong year.
 
#134      
turnaround3
ChiefGritty said:
True. But note that such a confluence of conference champions with so few losses has basically never happened and is much, much harder now than it once was.

The TCU and Baylor thing from 2014 can't happen now because those two would now play in a Big XII championship game.

The year 12-1 Ohio State got left out involved a 12-0 Notre Dame team, not an issue this year, nor is there an undefeated mid-major. It would be a historically strong year for this 12-1 Illinois hypothetical to be left out of the playoff, and if anything we're tracking toward the opposite of a historically strong year.
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Agree with all of these points.
 
#135      
BretMyBeachHouse
Personally, I wish that with four teams that it was limited to one per conference. Without a cross sectional playoff, you really open yourself up for arguments. Imagine Illinois winning out and beating the top SEC team not to make CFP in a bowl game. Obviously, this is a crazy scenario.

As to the selection committee, I can't imagine them putting 3 SECs in, even if they thought they were the three best teams. You're really limiting your eyeballs by doing that.
 
#136      
DaChief4ever
I'd like to face Notre Dame....Golden Domers will be in a bowl regardless of their record , but it would be kool to knock em off. That looks like the "lightest" schedule ever for Notre Dame...next up UNLV at home? Huh?
 
#137      
the juiceman cometh
BretMyBeachHouse said:
As to the selection committee, I can't imagine them putting 3 SECs in, even if they thought they were the three best teams. You're really limiting your eyeballs by doing that.
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It would really be an unparalleled method of angering and turning off potential viewers. The only way I could see something like this happening is as a way to ensure the 12 team playoff happens ASAP instead of in 2026. But that's tin-foil hat kind of stuff.
 
#141      
Mr. Roberts
DaChief4ever said:
I'd like to face Notre Dame....Golden Domers will be in a bowl regardless of their record , but it would be kool to knock em off. That looks like the "lightest" schedule ever for Notre Dame...next up UNLV at home? Huh?
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Syracuse, Clemson and USC yet to play. Likely 6-6 for ND. Probably a Pinstripe Bowl - not interested.
 
#142      
Mr. Tibbs
DaChief4ever said:
I'd like to face Notre Dame....Golden Domers will be in a bowl regardless of their record , but it would be kool to knock em off. That looks like the "lightest" schedule ever for Notre Dame...next up UNLV at home? Huh?
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ND would NEVER agree to a matchup in a lesser tier bowl with us .

they have zero reason to
 
#143      
DeonThomas
BretMyBeachHouse said:
Personally, I wish that with four teams that it was limited to one per conference. Without a cross sectional playoff, you really open yourself up for arguments. Imagine Illinois winning out and beating the top SEC team not to make CFP in a bowl game. Obviously, this is a crazy scenario.

As to the selection committee, I can't imagine them putting 3 SECs in, even if they thought they were the three best teams. You're really limiting your eyeballs by doing that.
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That Yahoo podcast with Pat Forde (referenced by Robert on WDWS) is a really interesting "listen."

The guys were discussing the 18 schools still alive for the CFP. They attempted to run through all scenarios on a conference-by-conference basis. At one point, they surfaced the fact that Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia could all end up with one loss in the SEC. If the ACC, PAC12 and BIG12 all cannibalize themselves, they theorized that the CFP could then turn out to be:

1. UGA
2. ALA
3. TENN
4. ILL (if we were to win out)

They did comment that an undefeated or 1-loss team from the Big 10 is highly likely to receive one of the four invitations. They did conclude by saying that the above scenario is not what the CFP founders had in mind!
 
#144      
ThunderousBear
DaChief4ever said:
I'd like to face Notre Dame....Golden Domers will be in a bowl regardless of their record , but it would be kool to knock em off. That looks like the "lightest" schedule ever for Notre Dame...next up UNLV at home? Huh?
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Yeah, it's pretty crazy how bad they've been with how easy the schedule is. This was a slam dunk playoff schedule for them, all they had to do was beat one of OSU or Clemson, clean up the trash, and they're in at 11-1. Instead they have a nonzero chance of not even making a bowl lol.
 
#147      
mhuml32
I hope all of you are basking in the glory of having a conversation about whether Illinois can (a) beat UM in Ann Arbor and Ohio State at the B1G Championships AND (b) whether that would give Illinois one of the CFP selections.
 
#148      
DeonThomas
BZuppke said:
I know. So strange to see Tennessee in the mix 🤪
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Being In The Mix....
Quick history recall: Heading into the January 2nd Bowl Games, played following the 1983 regular season, we were ranked 4th with a legit chance at (our 6th) Natty. All three teams ahead of us were undefeated and we were the top-rated 1-loss team. All four games were played on the same day. Here's how it played out:

#1 Nebraska - Orange Bowl vs #5 Miami -- Lost 31-30
#2 Texas - Cotton Bowl vs Georgia -- Lost 10-9
#3 Auburn - Sugar Bowl vs Michigan -- Won 9-7
#4 ILLINI - Rose Bowl vs #14 UCLA -- Lost 45-9

We were favored big over #14 UCLA, but may have partied a bit too much in LA. (This was the notorious Playboy Mansion visit, thanks to famous alumnus Uncle Hugh). UCLA was not very good and finished 7-4-1. On paper, we clearly had the easiest game among the top 4 contenders. The final poll was: #1 Miami -- #2 Nebraska -- #3 Auburn.

It would have required a flip-flop of that 45-9 final score to give us a shot vs both Bernie Kosar/Miami and Auburn.
 
#149      
Lysol623
This is how I see the Bowls playing out.

CFP- Ohio State
Rose- Michigan
Citrus- Penn State
"Outback"- Illinois/Purdue winner
Music City- Illinois/Purdue loser

If we go 12-1, I think we knock Ohio State and Michigan out of the playoff and attend ourselves.
 
#150      
Lysol623
BretMyBeachHouse said:
Personally, I wish that with four teams that it was limited to one per conference. Without a cross sectional playoff, you really open yourself up for arguments. Imagine Illinois winning out and beating the top SEC team not to make CFP in a bowl game. Obviously, this is a crazy scenario.

As to the selection committee, I can't imagine them putting 3 SECs in, even if they thought they were the three best teams. You're really limiting your eyeballs by doing that.
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IF we win out, our best bet to make the CFP is:
1. We beat Michigan
2. Michigan beats Ohio State
3. We beat Michigan again in the BTT game.

Michigan would clearly be ahead of OSU because of the head to head and East title. We would clearly be above Michigan because of the head e head wins and BIG title.
 
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