Let's take another look at the potential at-large teams around the country, and how they're doing in efficiency. I've shared the B1G statistics (through Saturday, 2/6):
Again, Michigan has been very dominant against what has been a fairly light schedule thus far. However, they're clear #1 until showing otherwise, and Illinois is a clear #2 at this point. Ohio State and Iowa are just a tick behind, and Wisconsin/Purdue/Rutgers are safely in the bracket right now, considering how tough the conference is (3rd toughest conference in the KenPom era by net conference efficiency, behind ACC 2004 - 9 teams, 7 made tournament, 2 in FF and Big 12 2017 - 10 teams, 7 made tournament).
But looking at the other power conferences:
Baylor is ridiculous and deserving of the 1 or 2. Big 12 is the second toughest conference and is really a case of 7 teams beating up on the other 3. Kansas might just be the 7th best team in the conference. However, 7 teams have established themselves as likely tournament teams.
Like I was mentioning yesterday, this conference is Alabama and "everyone else". Not really a clear 2nd best team, but Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, Auburn and LSU are definitely in the tournament discussion. But Missouri as a top 4 seed? (top 2 I've seen on CBS?) I don't see it. SEC is 3rd in KP conference efficiency, but about even with the ACC.
The ACC is interesting this year mostly because the usual suspects aren't dominating at the top. Virginia and Florida State are the class of the league, and a lot of teams have been "okay", led by Louisville, Duke and Virginia Tech. No team has been truly awful, but no team has been especially good either.
The Big East has been the 5th most efficient conference, and it's a lot of meh punctuated by several teams with month-long COVID delays (Villanova, Xavier, Georgetown). So nobody has played a ton of conference games yet, but Villanova is a step above the rest, with Creighton and Connecticut on the second tier. St Johns has come on lately but they were awful early, and DePaul is once again a distant last.
Everyone has been on the "UCLA is back!" train that they've become slightly overrated at this point, because USC is clearly the best team in the conference to this point. Colorado, UCLA, Arizona and Oregon are looking at tourney spots, with Stanford and Utah looking to make runs to get into safer territory. Washington and Cal are really bad, though, and are providing the rest of the conference a boost to their numbers.
As for Gonzaga...
Yes, Gonzaga is playing like the #1 team, even with their less efficient conference (9th overall, below the above 6 and the American and A-10). BYU is the only other potential tournament team here, and Portland is super bad (like, one of the 20 worst teams in the country).